Aintree 2008

firstpastthepost

firstpastthepost

At the Start
Joined
Dec 23, 2007
Messages
411
Location
cheltenham
Havnt seen many topics on it and its less than a week away,What are you looking forward to seeing the most ?

me personally i cant wait for kauto to show how good he is and show that he wasnt right at cheltenham and prove what value he is at 4-1 for next years gold cup.master minded is the other highlight i think this horse really could be anything and going up in trip could make him even better?
 
You'd possibly be interested to know that Paul Nicholls said today that he believes that not only did Kauto Star not run below par at Cheltenham, he believes he ran to a higher level than when winning last year's Gold Cup.
 
I really find Aintree an anticlimax after Cheltenham, where horses are run often as an afterthought where the ground is mostly firm and the course is completely different to Cheltenham.
I watch and enjoy but it just doesnt do it for me. Punchestown is now my favourite festival by far even more than Cheltenham.
It might be the sight of that bloody McCain talking about Red Rum (who would obviously have been moved to Nicholls) or the crap Beeb coverage I just don't know.
I have this feeling that Kauto would never have run had he won at Cheltenham and I hope they aren't going to the well once too often with him
 
i think kauto star is a improved horse this year and what your saying is correct, I have no doubt it was better than his performance last year also but it didnt match his runs this year so thats why im of the opion he ran below par.

I wouldnt wanna argue with any point that paul nicholls has put across about that as he knows the horse better than anyone and wouldnt wanna argue with any comments that you have put forward as you seem to know alot about racing but in my eyes kauto didnt seem to be his normal self in his neck and in this back legs and looked to be well over worked and his jumping didnt seem to be up to much at all and he can run at a fast pace otherwise he wouldnt have been a favourite in a queen mother and win 2 tingle creeks.
 
I am an enormous Denman fan, firstpastthepost. I have also always looked for ways to oppose Kauto Star. I do not agree with some people that Kauto Star "didn't turn up to the races" however nor do I necessarily agree that he ran the race he is always capable of.

My personal opinion is that, despite winning grade one races over 2m, that Kauto Star was harried out of running his race by not only the pace of the race, but the trip. If the race were to have been over 2m or 2m4f I think his jumping would not have got him beaten. However over 3m2f his jumping was harried enough that he made enough mistakes to trouble him and stop him from travelling as effectively as he generally does.

It is worth pointing out that his jumping didn't start to deteriorate until he had gone a full circuit, at which point he was not travelling with his usual fluidity. I happen to think that Denman did take him out of his comfrot zone with his relentless galloping allayed with relentless jumping.
 
i am a fan of denman myself and have backed him everytime but the gold cup but out of the two i still think kauto is the best, Personally i think the gold cup didnt answer the question i thought it would i cant wait til they meet again on good ground and if denman comes out on top i will put my hands up that denman is the best over the gold cup trip but it will take some horse to make me think there better tahn kauto after what he has done in the past few years winning over so many distances at championship level.
 
the novices hurdle looks a fantastic race with Binocular Celestial Halo Franchoek Ashkazar all in it. hopfully A P Mccoy picks Binocular so Robert Thornton can go back on Franchoek, my pick in this would be Celestial Halo looks a horse for the champion hurdle next year.
 
Originally posted by Shadow Leader@Mar 30 2008, 09:31 PM
I am an enormous Denman fan, firstpastthepost. I have also always looked for ways to oppose Kauto Star. I do not agree with some people that Kauto Star "didn't turn up to the races" however nor do I necessarily agree that he ran the race he is always capable of.

My personal opinion is that, despite winning grade one races over 2m, that Kauto Star was harried out of running his race by not only the pace of the race, but the trip. If the race were to have been over 2m or 2m4f I think his jumping would not have got him beaten. However over 3m2f his jumping was harried enough that he made enough mistakes to trouble him and stop him from travelling as effectively as he generally does.

It is worth pointing out that his jumping didn't start to deteriorate until he had gone a full circuit, at which point he was not travelling with his usual fluidity. I happen to think that Denman did take him out of his comfrot zone with his relentless galloping allayed with relentless jumping.
Click to expand...
:clap:

And she even had the humility not to say, "as predicted" well by about 33% of us anyway, it would appear though a few people did vote after the result :suspect:
 
SL: << ....... It is worth pointing out that his [KS's] jumping didn't start to deteriorate until he had gone a full circuit, at which point he was not travelling with his usual fluidity. >>


I've just spent about an hour [while half watching James Bond] re-reading the whole of the Kauto vs Denman thread consecutively from GC day to the end - which I didn't entirely at the time... Makes very interesting reading, not least in that it's clear we are going to have to disagree in that some of us felt we could see that KS wasn't right pretty much from the start [something which several quotes form jockey and connections bore out] whilst others, all of whom put up Denman before the race, will never accept that.

Reading the thread, it's striking that some very good judges agree with me that KS jumped badly almost from the off. Maybe one's perception depends which horse you were primarily following on the way round? - and those of us primarily watching KS were aghast very early on...

I'm a bit surprised that Nicholls is saying what he did today, in the light of what he, Ruby and the lass were saying right after the race and esp the following day [quotes on the thread] - tho I suppose in terms of speed figs etc he is strictly correct. And I can also see that there are other reasons he might feel constrained to say it, esp if what I was told regarding the aftermath of his injury was correct. The whole affair is taking on the air of a bit of a mystery, and it may be years before we learn the full story. The pre-race hype has a lot to answer for imo.


As for Aintree, I'm hugely looking forward to it. I always do.

For me, 4+ miles over the GN fences - which is only raced once a year - is the biggest test of skill and courage for both horse and rider in the racing calender, and the fact that jocks get nervous before the race as in no other, speaks volumes.
 
Originally posted by Shadow Leader@Mar 30 2008, 08:49 PM
You'd possibly be interested to know that Paul Nicholls said today that he believes that not only did Kauto Star not run below par at Cheltenham, he believes he ran to a higher level than when winning last year's Gold Cup.
Click to expand...
I'm pleased to hear this. It backs up my own ratings and interpretation of the races.

My race ratings for Kauto Star in the Gold Cup are:

2008 178+
2007 176+

I'm firmly in the camp that believes the horse didn't run to form, not because Denman took him out of his comfort zone, but for some reason he wasn't firing on the day.

Hopefully we'll see the real Kauto Star this week.
 
Very interesting Desert Orchid. What was the highest rating that you have Kauto Star running to this year (presumably his all time high)?

Thanks.
 
185+ when beaten by Monet's Garden first time up this season. I'm assuming Nicholls wouldn't have had him quite at 100% that day. I then had him on 182++ for his King George, which I thought he won with a few lengths to spare. I've always had it in mind that the horse could hit 190 when everything went right.
 
I'm going on the Friday, and i'm very pleased by the card.

Master Minded seems like a certainty if he can last the extra 4f in the Melling and Captain Cee Bee should win the Novice 2m Hurdle too.

Also really like Alberta's Run in the 3m novice chase, assuming Tidal Bay doesn't oppose.

Quality weekend's racing.
 
Originally posted by firstpastthepost@Mar 30 2008, 09:43 PM
the novices hurdle looks a fantastic race with Binocular Celestial Halo Franchoek Ashkazar all in it. hopfully A P Mccoy picks Binocular so Robert Thornton can go back on Franchoek, my pick in this would be Celestial Halo looks a horse for the champion hurdle next year.
Click to expand...
Im also interested in this race. I had my best result of the festival on Celestial Halo, and it was the highlight of the week for me. However, i do think the race coulnt have panned out any better for the horse, jumped great down the back, a nice long run in from the 2nd last, and he got his own way. The horse hard race, and i think he may be there for the taking this time. Anyone else agree?

I dont think i would back against the horse, but im not sure i can have the same level of confidence in it this time around. I suppose a lot will depend on the opposition.
 
I love this meeting and can normally get back my losses from Cheltenham, :( reading the form of this passed meeting, but also taking into consideration horses that just don't act on the undulating course but do come to the fore on a flat track...

So yes I rate this meeting on a par with any other festivals....... and culminating in the one and only NATIONAL
 
from sportinglife: - what a fairytale would that be:


"Aintree specialist Sam Waley-Cohen is taking nothing for granted with Katarino as the 13-year-old attempts to provide him with a third victory in the John Smith's Fox Hunters' Chase this Thursday.

The pair teamed up to take the famous old prize in 2005 and 2006 but Katarino, who is now notoriously difficult to keep sound, has been restricted to a sole start in a point-to-point since his second success.

However, Waley-Cohen and his team, including father and trainer Robert, have left no stone unturned in his preparation.

"We have our fingers crossed we can get him there on Thursday, but he's just a very fragile horse," said the amateur rider.

"We have been doing our best to get him fit. He managed to win back-to-back Fox Hunters in 2006 without a win in-between.

"He must have done 10,000 miles of walking and cantering on the gallops! It has mainly been the head girl at the yard doing the work but I sat on him this week and he certainly felt well."

Waley-Cohen has never failed to complete a race over the Grand National fences, having won the Topham Chase and finished fifth in the Grand National with Liberthine.

"Touch wood it has always gone well, but it looks like I won't get a ride in the National itself this year," he added.

"Shatabdi will be running in the John Smith's Handicap Hurdle, the last race on Thursday and I might get one more ride on the Saturday. Mind you, you never know. There's a lot of racing still to be run."

As long as he comes home safe and well, sound ....
 
Originally posted by granger@Mar 31 2008, 02:55 PM
Anyone got a tissue price on Kauto?
Click to expand...
Betfair has opened a market. Kauto currently trading at odds on, Monet's Garden at 3.9.
 
Sam W-C: "Touch wood it has always gone well, but it looks like I won't get a ride in the National itself this year"

Trainers are mad - he's one of the best jocks over the fences I've seen in over 50 years.
Partly because his old-fashioned style really suits these fences! No reflection on Dom Elsworth, but I wish Spearing had grabbed him for Simon...
 
Originally posted by Headstrong@Mar 31 2008, 12:50 PM
Sam W-C: "Touch wood it has always gone well, but it looks like I won't get a ride in the National itself this year"

Trainers are mad - he's one of the best jocks over the fences I've seen in over 50 years.
Partly because his old-fashioned style really suits these fences! No reflection on Dom Elsworth, but I wish Spearing had grabbed him for Simon...
Click to expand...
Have to admit I am with you here, Heads.
 
I have re-watched the Gold Cup, Headstrong, whilst exclusively watching Kauto Star. He is not naturally a flamboyant jumper anyway so it cannot possibly be deduced that he was not jumping well from the start - or not travelling well - he was lobbing along.

He made his first proper jumping error after one full circuit at the fence that would be the second last on the final circuit and had been the first fence. After that he also fluffed the next fence after which followed more jumping mistakes and he stopped travelling somewhere between the 6th last and the 5th last - the first indicator was halfway between those fences when Ruby switched his stick.

If anyone had reason to say that KS ran below par it is Paul Nicholls (along with Ruby and Clive Smith, naturally) - so is it not bizarre that whilst "connections" are saying he ran a poor race, Nicholls says the complete opposite!!
 
Sorry I don't have access to anything except YouTube here, which is too small to follow, but my memory is that he put in a shortie before either the second or it might have been the third fence, then did that several times more on the first circuit - rather than that he was fluffing the jumps exactly; and those of us who'd backed him knew our fate early on! I certainly knew he was going to lose before he'd got round the back straight first time. [We had a very big tv screen btw which made it easy to pick up on small errors and hesitancies]

The point I keep making is that even early in the race he was losing ground at some jumps, whereas at his best he's made ground over them, often with spectacular leaps, eg in the KG; and this slow jumping was mainly from meeting them wrong... this meant he wasn't happy and the first circuit took a lot out of him as he was never relaxed and often hesitant. This made it easy enough for Denman to put his jumping under pressure on the 2nd circuit.

The reason I find it bizarre that Nicholls et al are saying what they are, is that they said something different just after the race; unless they are talking purely in the technical sense now of speed performance. Anyway as I'm repeating myself, I'll leave it there. I know what I saw on the day, whatever anyone says now! And I know what I was told of the preparation!
 
Back
Top