Aintree 2019

Wonder what happened with Min at Cheltenham. Tempted to give him a pass and back him for the Melling - he'll likely have a better chance of staying on decent ground.
 
Altior was clearly the highlight and despite making it look like hard work, I think he was always in control and came home in good style. He is an extraordinary horse because he just gets everything done. AP McCoy was here last night and said Altior is just so professional in everything he does who knows what he’s got to do so gets on a does it. I think AP was even considering coming out of retirement to ride him but I’m not sure what Nico would have to say about that!

Much of the talk will now be what we do next and I suppose the 32Red King George would have to enter the equation because I think more than ever now he is definitely looking as though he wants another half a mile at least. He’s just as good at two miles but the good thing about him is that you can switch him off which means he should have no problem getting further.

He has come out of the Champion Chase very well, better than last year for sure, so I would quite like to go to Aintree for the G1 Melling Chase (over 2m4f) on the Friday of Aintree but I need to speak to Patricia and Chris Pugh this weekend before we make any final decision.
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from hendo's unibet blog
 
THURSDAY, 4th April 2019 (ITV/Racing TV)
2.20pm – Doombar Anniversary 4yo Juvenile Hurdle 4yo Grade 1 (Class 1) (4yo) 2m1f ITV

2018 Winner: WE HAVE A DREAM (2/1 odds)
Trainer: Nicky Henderson
Jockey: Daryl Jacob

14/16 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
13/16 – Placed in the top three last time out
11/16 – Raced in the Triumph Hurdle (Cheltenham) last time out
10/16 – Returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting
7/16 – Winning favourites
5/16 – Won by trainer Alan King (4 of the last 12)
5/16 – Won last time out
3/16 – Won by trainer Paul Nicholls
2/16 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
2/16 – Irish-trained winners
11/14 winners were placed at worst at the Cheltenham Festival
French-bred horses have won 11 of the last 20 (55%) runnings – including the last four.
13/19 winners raced in the Triumph Hurdle earlier that season
Just 5/29 winners hadn’t won at least twice over hurdles before

2.50pm – Betway Bowl Chase Grade 1 (Class 1) (5yo+) 3m1f ITV


2018 Winner: MIGHT BITE (4/5 fav odds)
Trainer: Nicky Henderson
Jockey: Barry Geraghty

14/16 – Didn’t win last time out
13/16 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
10/16 – Ran in the Gold Cup (Cheltenham) last time out
9/16 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
6/16 – Aged in double-figures
4/16 – Won by the Pipe stable
4/16 – Winning favourites
4/5 – Won that season’s King George
15/35 (43%) winners were aged 10 or older
24/35 (69%) winners ran in that season’s Cheltenham Gold Cup
13/22 (59%) winners were placed fourth or better in that season’s King George VI Chase
2nd or 3rd favourites have won 13 of the last 26 (50%) renewals and 6 of the last 9 (67%)
4 of the last 8 winners had run in this race before
3 of the last 10 winners finished in the top 3 in that season’s Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury


3.25pm – Betway Aintree Hurdle Grade 1 (Class 1) (4yo+) 2m4f ITV

2018 Winner: L’AMI SERGE (5/1 odds)
Trainer: Nicky Henderson
Jockey: Daryl Jacob

16/16 – Aged 8 or younger
13/16 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
12/16 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
11/16 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
9/16 – Ran in the Champion Hurdle last time out
8/16 – Irish-trained winners, plus 18 of the last 42
5/16 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
4/16 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
4/16 – Won last time out
4/16 – Won by trainer Nicky Henderson (4 of the last 8)
3/16 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
10 of the last 13 winners (including last 7) had won a Grade 1 before
9 of the last 18 (50%) winners had won at this meeting before
Only 5 Champion Hurdle winners since 1999 have run – but 3 won
Every British-trained winner had raced at the Cheltenham Festival that season
Just 1 of the last 18 Champion Hurdle runner-ups to race have won


4.05pm – The Randox Health Fox Hunters´ Chase (Class 2) (6yo+) 2m5f ITV1

2018 Winner: BALNASLOW (11/2 odds)
Trainer: Graham John McKeever
Jockey: Derek O’Connor

16/16 – Aged 9 or older (Just 2 of the last 33 winners were younger than 9)
13/16 – Returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
13/16 – Aged in double-figures
11/16 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
7/16 – Won last time out
6/16 – Ran in the Cheltenham Foxhunters’ last time out
5/16 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
2/16 – Ridden by Sam Waley-Cohen
Irish-trained runners have won 4 of the last 5 runnings
11 of the last 14 winners went off favourite or second favourite
22 of the last 26 winners had won a race earlier that season
Only 2 of the last 35 winners were aged younger than 9
22 of the last 26 (85%) winners came from the top 4 in the market
10 of the last 14 winners had run over these National-style fences before
Ex-handicap horses have won 11 of the last 17 (65%) renewals

4.40pm – Red Rum Handicap Chase Grade 3 (Class 1) (5yo+) 2m ITV

2018 Winner: Bentelimar (10/1 odds)
Trainer: Charlie Longsdon
Jockey: Jonathan Burke

15/16 – Aged 9 or younger
14/16 – Carried 11-1 or less
11/16 – Carried 10-13 or less
11/16 – Priced 10/1 or shorter in the betting
9/16 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
9/16 – Aged 7 or younger
10/16 – Unplaced last time out
4/16 – Winning favourites (1 co)
3/16 – Won last time out
1/16 – Irish-trained winner
10 of the last 18 winners were Novices
15 of the last 19 winners were rated 139 or lower
Only 2 winners older than 9 years-old since 1988
4 of the last 11 winners were ridden by conditional jockeys
The top 5 in the betting have won 14 of the last 21 (67%) runnings
17 of the last 19 (89%) winners carried 11-2 or less
3 of the last 12 winners raced in the previous year’s race
7 of the last 20 (35%) winners ran in that season’s Johnny Henderson Grand Annual (Cheltenha
 
I wonder if we’ll see Yorkhill turn up here, despite the proximity to today’s run.

One has to think the only explanation for sending him right handed on his return was to see whether those tendencies to jump out to his left were still there, with a view to Punchestown.

They clearly are and he travelled well enough, maybe too well, so a stronger pace, going left handed at Aintree shold suit now some of the freshness will be out of him.

Edit: Willie saying on RTV that it’s a possibility but will need to see how he comes out of today’s run as he seemed a bit disappointed. I couldn’t have him regardless personally.
 
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Looks like the Bowl next Thursday is the plan for Kemboy. Hopefully track and decent ground will suit and the only downer is I've got no chance of getting a pass on the back of Cheltenham and a 4 day Las Vegas trip staring tomorrow :D
 
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