Aintree Thursday

Tout Seul

Tout Seul

Senior Jockey
Joined
May 2, 2003
Messages
2,627
I have to be in the City tomorrow afternoon and I hate betting on races I can't see live. So small stakes tomorrow.

Boringly I can't see Inglis and Kauto being beaten nor do I see the third race being a betting proposition.

In the Hunter chase Katarino is an old favourite that has won me a lot over the years ( a Triumph winner being such a good chaser)but I discount him and TTAT (who never wins when I back him) in favour of Christy Beamish. A darn good PtP horse who did well coming second last year and has a better jockey this time. Will also do a RFComb. containing the 3.

Leslingtaylor stands out in the next. Patently does not like Cheltenham's undulations but form here and at Doncaster is excellent. The Bet of the Day for me.

Group Captain did not perform for me at the Festival but even so can't back him to beat Franchoek. Rob Wright in the Times naps Kealshore Boy. Since he is the Tips Champion and someone whose selection of one of my fancies often persuades me to increase my bet, I have had a good look and although I can't see anything have put on a couple of quid at 31/1 on Betfair

I'll be backing Junior as another one that did not like (the hill) at Cheltenham having looked to have got the race in the bag at the last. Danger County Zen.

23.17pm. Just read Wright's column and see that he's also gone for Christy Beamish and Leslingtaylor- for the exactly same reasons I have. I got there on my own , honest Guv.
 
No evidence for me that Group Captain ran below his best at Cheltenham, there was no lines of form to correlate between the English and Irish horses and it's possible that they're just better. On that basis, I wouldn't be deserting him too quickly tomorrow against this opposition.

The major races are discussed elsewhere and the rest of the card doesn't inspire me. However, I'm inclined to think that Palomar could well on this track in the last race.
 
Inglis has got to be opposed on this track imo. Difficult to find something to oppose him with though.
 
Originally posted by Desert Orchid@Apr 3 2008, 12:38 AM
I'm opposing ID with Millenium Royal.
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Good call ~ he's a bit frustrating, but his form suggests he has an excellent chance here, where Inglis Drever is about a stone inferior to Cheltenham.

2:35 Our Vic probably won't beat Kauto Star but is the only option from a betting point of view; there's value in backing him each way. Monet's Garden won't stay and Exotic Dancer looked wrong at Cheltenham.

3:10 Binocular can beat Celestial Halo ~ the latter was allowed too much rope in the Triumph, although he'll still be tough enough to beat.

3:45 A tough race to call. Whitenzo is overpriced and retains enough ability to reach the frame (he's a little too doggy for win purposes); it's unlikely that Katarino will be truly fit for this and Scot's Grey is on the slide so Buckby Lane would be my form pick but he's pretty fragile. Don't be surprised to see a big run from Sonevafushi from the Cheltenham Foxhunters winning team.

4:20 Even tougher although those at the top of the handicap have strong claims; of those beaten in the Grand Annual, Almaydan can go closer and Greenhope is better than he looked (travelled strongly for a long way); Calatagan was third there and although 3lbs higher, should run his race but can be backed at 25 on the machine, as can the other 2 mentioned. I can't have Leslingtaylor in a month of Sundays.

4:55 Franchoek can beat Elusive Dream if it turns into a scrap; however, the Nicholls horse may well beat him if Franchoek is ridden for speed as in the Triumph. My guess is connections will have learnt from that error.

5:30 Three against the field here: the top stables (with the exception of Jonjo) have shocking handicap records at this meeting so avoid the "sexy" ones and look for a bit of value. Tot O' Whiskey travelled beautifully last time and should run well on this track while Fearghal Davis gets a good tune from Palomar while I'd respect Gary Moore in any big handicap hurdle, so Gabier is worth a tickle at a big price.
 
A great day's racing. My firm belief is that Celestial Halo is a knockout bet.

I think Inglis Drever is a very nice price, but only a fool would row in too heavy, given his Liverpool record.

I will be going in pretty heavy on Lennon later on. I thought he would place in the Queen Mum if given his chance, so I have to fancy him around here off a mark in the low 150's.
 
I'm delighted that Inglis Drever is avaialble at 6/4 today. He was shorter for the stayers and had a stronger field in opposition.

ID has won here as a novice, (before being disappointing behind GC, wasnt MOnet's Garden beaten in that race as well If I remember correctly) beaten by Al Eile on Al Eile's track over 2m4f.

He has tried 3m once over hurdles here and was beaten well before the track became an issue. Of course, its an obvious angle to get a short priced fav beaten, but I'll take the 6/4 and bigger about the horse that on form should be odds on, and has noticeably travelled far kinder throughout his races this year. Thank you very much.
 
It is a dire race, with some decent opposition you could find ways to oppose him but other given today’s field it is near impossible.
 
It's raining and the ground is soft - poss also sticky.
Our Vic is the horse with form on the ground, and they are just saying he looks terrific in the paddock
I've backed him W&P on BF.
MG won't like the ground much, but he's fresh which will help a lot

Interesting that they have just said on BBC that KS seems to be carrying a bit of condition - have they still been swimming rather than galloping him I wonder??
 
Well I think I got my money - I think I did a FCT this morning too! - but I'm gutted for KS.
That was tremendously brave from Ruby and horse. i think he's still lacking a bit of fitness
An absolutely amazing race to watch...
 
Yes sad Gareth, I think they were going for the OM pot otherwise wouldn't have run him

I can't say what I heard about KS's prep for the GC nor obviously form whom, but I'm still convinced they haven't been able to work or school him properly - and the results show that. His class got him through that but what it must have taken out of him God only knows
 
Nick Luck is creaming himself on RUK. I guess one man's thrilling race is another man's horror at circumstances forcing a great champion to be ridden hard and hit when clearly exhausted.

(moved this comment from the Gold Cup thread)
 
Sad sight Kauto, he didn't tired from the last, just looked outclassed. I really hope he don't come back next year and do a Moscow, would be very sad sight.
 
It was a strange race but I don't think we can discount the possibility that Our Vic has improved, possibly for the blinkers or maybe just getting better with age. The relative form between Kauto Star and Exotic Dancer looks close to expectations and the other two, for whom plenty of people were making EW cases, were gubbed out of sight.

Interesting too that Nicholls is saying Ruby is mad at him for the decision on tactics. I reckon they thought they'd find out if this horse stayed a very fast-run race with a view to decisions for next season. If there's one horse you'd have thought the pace would get to it was Our Vic but he battled on very gamely.

Also, a foot before and a foot after the line Kauto was in front. It was on the nod but such is the margin between winning and being beaten an inch people are talking about Kauto as a failure and a sad sight.
 
Yes, a sad sight but a very strange race. Nicholls is accepting the blame for the unusual tactics and Walsh looked gutted after the post. Why force the pace with a circuit to go when you're on a horse who wins Tingle Creeks for fun especially after a gruelling Gold Cup a few weeks earlier.

Hope Master Minded tomorrow doesn't blow out for same reason. Can't stand this Order of Merit rubbish - always chasing the dollar - what about the horse's interest? See they said before the first race that Lough Derg might run again on Saturday if he's close enough to KS in OM. All they ever bang on about on C4 is the OM standings. Why can't everyone just try and win the race about to be run instead of some stupid points competition?
 
Also, a foot before and a foot after the line Kauto was in front. It was on the nod but such is the margin between winning and being beaten an inch people are talking about Kauto as a failure and a sad sight.
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It would have been just as sad a sight if he'd had to be carried over the line to short-head Our Vic.

It's got little to do with winning and losing, just the circumstances of the horse having to be put through that experience because of how the race unfolded.

Edit: PS - I posted that I thought it was sad before I'd seen the replay or heard the result of the photo.
 
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