Another fast race?

Desert Orchid

Desert Orchid

Senior Jockey
Joined
Aug 2, 2005
Messages
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I'm just going over last week's results.

The 3yo sprint handicap on 2000G day is looking fast to me. I reckon this impression is backed up by the distances between the principals: 6.5 lengths between first and sixth in what should have been a tight race. I don't think the 7lbs & 3lbs rises will stop the winner and runner-up respectively. I could also fancy the third off the same mark.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I'm just going over last week's results.

The 3yo sprint handicap on 2000G day is looking fast to me. I reckon this impression is backed up by the distances between the principals: 6.5 lengths between first and sixth in what should have been a tight race. I don't think the 7lbs & 3lbs rises will stop the winner and runner-up respectively. I could also fancy the third off the same mark.
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this has been discussed a few times DO..see Gigilo's thread
 
Yes, SITP's race.

What does '5lbs fast' mean to you? Would that be the same as a horse having 5lbs in hand of its OR?
 
My problem with that is that 5lbs in hand wouldn't give a horse a favourite's chance of winning a Class 5 race. We must be calculating within different parameters.
 
Desert Orchid said:
My problem with that is that 5lbs in hand wouldn't give a horse a favourite's chance of winning a Class 5 race. We must be calculating within different parameters.
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not following that at all..the horse was OHR rated 84..my speed fig is 89...a class 5 is a 0-70.. so on top of not getting into the race it would be well able to win one

what scale do you do your figures on..0-140?..if so ..what figure did you give secretinthepark

these were my figs..lbs fast or slower than OHR

1 BOONGA ROOGETA
7 SOLE POWER
-50 UNIVERSAL
-12 DAWN APPROACH
5 SECRETINTHEPARK
-57 WINDHOEK
-30 GLEAN
 
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If you check through average RPRs you'll find a horse needs to be about 7lbs better than its OR to have a chance of winning a Class 5 race, hence my remark that "a horse" [not necessarily SITP] couldn't win a race of that class with only that amount in hand.

I've got it running to 100 so it should still be competitive off its new mark of 91 as I'd expect it to keep improving.

You must have SITP badly handicapped if you have it on 89 and its new mark is 91?

I work to the 126 scale.
 
Desert Orchid said:
If you check through average RPRs you'll find a horse needs to be about 7lbs better than its OR to have a chance of winning a Class 5 race, hence my remark that "a horse" [not necessarily SITP] couldn't win a race of that class with only that amount in hand.

I've got it running to 100 so it should still be competitive off its new mark of 91 as I'd expect it to keep improving.

You must have SITP badly handicapped if you have it on 89 and its new mark is 91?

I work to the 126 scale.
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126 being a G1?

I would say that purely on speed figures secretintheparlk doesn't have much in hand..you think a 100 horse..we will see over the next few weeks if it is that far in front of its mark.

If you have this one on 100 then you must have a massive figure for Sole Power?
 
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thinking about it..we had this discussion last year..think that was newmarket

best check to do is divide all your standards by the distance

eg

5f 60.00 = 12.00 per furlong
6f 73.00 = 12.16 per furlong


each increase in distance should see a slowing down per furlong..if a time is out you will get a per furlong time that is out of kilter with the slowing down stuff.
 
Out of boredom (a desire to not garden really), I've rated Newmarket to compare with you guys. Haven't looked at replays or taken sections etc.

Did allow 0.4 seconds per mile for the 2000 and races afterwards (due to the shower). It's a bit slapdash, however...

BOONGA ROOGETA 96 (claimer so possibly less)
SOLE POWER 115
DAWN APPROACH 118
SECRETINTHEPARK 93

Using the RP Standards I have...

BOONGA ROOGETA 93 (claimer so possibly less)
SOLE POWER 116
DAWN APPROACH 118
SECRETINTHEPARK 95

Rated to 9 stone and directly comparable to the OHR's.
 
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I'm not 100% sure what you mean about the RPR's and 7lb, DO, but think I know what you're getting at.

What I've found is that the RPR's tend to be 7lbs higher if it's ran to it's OHR, as in, the RP are about 7lb too generous (on average) when rating, to be able to compare the two (OHR vs RPR).

Actually, if I'm rating a maiden race where the winner doesn't have an OHR, I have excel deduct 7lb from the RPR awarded for that race to get it in the ball park, but obviously try to use truly run HCP's as much as possible.
 
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Don't know mate, I don't subscribe to it.

When you posted those RP 'seconds per furlong' figures what are the standards you used?

This is what I have Edwards as using, but he may have changed them since, dunno.

57.7
(12.5)
70.2
(13.0)
83.2
(12.6)
95.8
(12.9)
108.7
(12.3)
121.0
(27.7)
148.7
(26.8)
175.5
(24.5)
200.0

When I multiplied the seconds per furlong by the distance to get the standards for the ones you posted earlier, I got these....

57.5
(12.75)
70.26
(12.27)
82.53
(12.75)
95.28

Do you see the difference between the 7F - 6F standards?
 
Just went back to the 18th of April and looked at the results in the RP.

The figures you posted would seem to be the latest standards he's using. It's one hell of a change though, don't you think? I'm sure the ones I posted were the ones he was using last year, if not certainly 2011.

Mine, incidentally, hover somewhere in between.

Anyway, as well as looking at the seconds per furlong, I find it useful to look at the differences between the distances in a raw sense. Some things just don't add up when you look at it like that, but when placing them side by side with other standards you can see the ones that are out of sync. Even split seconds median times can come in handy for comparison purposes so long as you consider that they become easier to get as distance extends.

I have noted topspeed must fail to compensate for wind sometimes (not with the GA, which he doesn't seem to do anyway, but with the compilation of his standards).

A tail wind down the back straight for example, where a hold up horse gets the benefit of it, and then gets shelter from it in the home straight before being pulled out to win. This produces a faster time than it should have done. All these slightly faster times seem to add up to him being a little tight in some instances. So that on calm days he'll end up with slow times for races on the round course or too fast times for races on the straight.

I have no proof of this, it's just a feeling I have.
 
RP one's alter a lot Chris..i've noted them at intervals and they are constantly changing..which doesn't really add up as the course is the same all the time.
 
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