Another fast race?

I think I've just realised some of what he's doing, and you're right it doesn't make sense.

A week or so ago, someone was asking about the class of each racecourse. So I ran some queries to see, and looked for how many class 3 races or higher were run at each flat turf course in 2012.

He's obviously just looking at winning times and not using logic. As I mentioned, I suspect theres the wind factor, but also the changing of class of the course itself. Last year there wasn't one class 3+ race at Lingfield for example, which came as a bit of a surprise to me. He's setting his standards to 100 rated horses, which can only have been hypothetical in many instances. Courses with downhill gradients and sharp turns will be out of sync if he's projecting a faster time for the hypothetical 100 horses as if they were running on the level.

Still doesn't account for Newmarket though, but it does get very breezy there.

Heres that list I knocked up for the class of courses for 2012. I also worked out the percentage of class 3+ races which were run at the course. It doesn't paint a perfect picture, but I figured it would more or less show the quality of racing at each course.. A bit unrelated, but thought I'd toss it out there anyway...

ASCO - 93 (109) 85.32%
YORK - 91 (115) 79.13%
NEW(R)-80 (118) 67.80%
GOOD - 67 (125) 53.60%
CHES - 49 (103) 47.57%
NEW(J)-69 (155) 44.52%
DONC - 66 (169) 39.05%
NEWB - 45 (124) 36.29%
HAYD - 55 (152) 36.18%
SAND - 38 (107) 35.51%
EPSO - 26 (77) 33.77%
RIPO - 24 (95) 25.26%
PONT - 23 (105) 21.90%
AYR - 23 (114) 20.17%
SALI - 19 (101) 18.81%
LEIC - 13 (98) 13.26%
MUSS - 14 (110) 12.73%
WARW - 6 (51) 11.76%
WIND - 15 (138) 10.87%
NOTT - 12 (114) 10.53%
HAMI - 10 (99) 10.10%
THIR - 10 (103) 9.71%
NEWC - 9 (110) 8.18%
REDC - 8 (107) 7.48%
YARM - 11 (182) 6.04%
BEVE - 7 (125) 5.60%
CATT - 5 (117) 4.27%
CARL - 2 (56) 3.57%
BATH - 4 (149) 2.68%
BRIG - 1 (133) 0.75%
CHEP - 0 (82) 0.00%
FOLK - 0 (77) 0.00%
LING - 0 (76) 0.00%
 
not sure if that is affecting them Chris..his Newmarket standards shouldn't alter that much anyway..he's virtually telling you that you can't have any confidence in them to start with if one month they are x and another month y..one or both have to be wrong
 
do either of you two have a view on the time put up by Declamation today at beverley...big figure..entered on the 17 may in a handicap

looks way in advance of OHR
 
Again, it's not the kind of thing I'll be able to check out routinely. I tend to take my time over stuff once I've got my form instalment from the Weekender, and I tend only to look at the big weekend meetings. If Declamation ended up running on Saturday in a televised race I'd probably check it out then.

I might miss the odd good thing this way but I know from past experience I'm missing loads and loads of non-triers and losers so I can be phlegmatic about it.

It's the ones I've backed in the big Saturday races that eventually win when I'm not on that send me nuts!!
 
As Reet Hard has pointed out, Robot Boy (7th at Newmarket) runs in the last at York today. The first six home at HQ are all entered in a big sponsored handicap back over the same C&D on Saturday. Secretinthepark is the only one "jocked-up" at present - Sean Levey - and is 6/1 fav with Corals and Bet365.
 
gus said:
As Reet Hard has pointed out, Robot Boy (7th at Newmarket) runs in the last at York today. The first six home at HQ are all entered in a big sponsored handicap back over the same C&D on Saturday. Secretinthepark is the only one "jocked-up" at present - Sean Levey - and is 6/1 fav with Corals and Bet365.
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Yes but RB was beaten 7 lengths - 21lbs - which is a huge amount. That said, he wasn't beaten as far today so one could argue that today's defeat is a boost for SITP...
 
EC1 said:
what did you make of Angel Gabrial's race time at Ascot today?
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I've now had a look.

The difficulty is that only this and the Listed race took place on the round course and in the latter race Ektihaam looked to set his own pace. Without access to sectionals, I can only assume it was a moderate pace (hence he officially "qknd 3f out"). Angel Gabrial ran the C&D 1lb faster but it was probably a more true-run race for the class.

In this kind of situation I will always rate the lower-class race as being true run and allow a slow time rating for the better race.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've now had a look.

The difficulty is that only this and the Listed race took place on the round course and in the latter race Ektihaam looked to set his own pace. Without access to sectionals, I can only assume it was a moderate pace (hence he officially "qknd 3f out"). Angel Gabrial ran the C&D 1lb faster but it was probably a more true-run race for the class.

In this kind of situation I will always rate the lower-class race as being true run and allow a slow time rating for the better race.
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the finishing speed sectionals didn't suggest either was slowly run early DO. Gigilo has also added this race on his thread..Ektihaam looks to have run even pace or near on
 
Could they just have been two moderate races?

Another difficulty in this kind of situation is by extension. It was a Class 3 race and the 7/2f was tailed off. The eventual runner-up is a 10yo better known as a chaser. They may have round a sound enough pace for the class of race and the form might be solid for the class but I can't get my head close to getting round the idea of it being hot form just because it was 1lb faster than the listed race that followed. I'd be extremely reluctant to conclude anything other than that the better class race was slower than it should have been.

If it was a hot race, we're having to believe that some pretty exposed types, only one of which won last time out and that was last season, and only three of which were placed, aren't exposed after all.

How likely is that?
 
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are they that exposed though?..

noble alan has that 3rd to callico cat in the book
harvard has only run 7 times
marias choice only run 7 times

yes it maylook initially a bit too good to be true but its worth a glance at the next one to run from this race...a watching brief

i think saying that thinking the round course would ride faster than the straight at Ascot is unlikely..that has never happened since they re did the course...so the other races can be used with confidence..AG's race was faster than all those as well
 
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Harvard N Yale is crying out for a mile and three quarters. These Smart Strikes improve for a test of stamina. They should be planning his season around the Ebor.
 
I did take a look at that, but needed to go out. The 1m4F start is at bout the highest point, so was faster for the first furlong or two. Also far side was at a big advantage in straight.

After quite a bit of dicking about, I decided I would have put AG somewhere between 5 - 9LB fast.

I think it was the 6F race, where I noted that one or two of the placed horses had seemingly been best over 5F (Dorback AW form, if memory serves, and something else). Though again admit to not looking at sectionals etc.
 
Declamation is entered in 2 x 0-80's and 2 x 0-85s over 2 days next week before the HCPer can have his say.

I can't be bothered to rate the Bev meeting (or any meeting for that matter), but if you say it's fast, and it's entered up like that, then it looks a HCP good thing.
 
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Remarkably, the first six home in Secretinthepark's race on Guineas day finished tenth, twelfth, fifth, thirteenth, eighth and ninth yesterday. It was a rough house of a race, though. Like Graham Cunningham on C4, I was surprised at the change of tactics on SITP and I suspect he'll do better dropped out next time and/or back up in trip. Brazen met a lot of trouble in running and his performance can be ignored.

Fast-run races on my figures in the past few days where the form is likely to stand up are those won by Llaregyb, Auction, Prairie Ranger, Annecdote and Beldale Memory. Races run at a crawl were those won by Song Light, Winsili and High Troja.
 
gus said:
Remarkably, the first six home in Secretinthepark's race on Guineas day finished tenth, twelfth, fifth, thirteenth, eighth and ninth yesterday. It was a rough house of a race, though. Like Graham Cunningham on C4, I was surprised at the change of tactics on SITP and I suspect he'll do better dropped out next time and/or back up in trip. Brazen met a lot of trouble in running and his performance can be ignored.

Fast-run races on my figures in the past few days where the form is likely to stand up are those won by Llaregyb, Auction, Prairie Ranger, Annecdote and Beldale Memory. Races run at a crawl were those won by Song Light, Winsili and High Troja.
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It's always in my mind that sometimes it takes longer to recover from a very fast race. Look at yesterday's race won last year by Mince. The ones that finished second to sixth, Bartolomeu, Top Cop, Rafeej and Accession, all proved subsequently disappointing while Tioman Legend was beaten over 40 lengths after a 4-week break. Mince herself disappointed twice before going on to frank the form by winning in Listed and Group company. Sometimes these fast races bottom horses. (Maybe that's what happened to Toronado in the Craven.)

It's hard to accept that the form is poor to begin with. It was a valuable race so you expect the better stables to put their better horses in it. Robot Boy, well beaten, wasn't beaten as far next time.

It's a sobering reminder for me that I shouldn't allow myself to get carried away by fast times and outstanding form. maybe I should wait for racecourse evidence that the horse(s) has/have recovered.
 
CPGagie said:
Declamation is entered in 2 x 0-80's and 2 x 0-85s over 2 days next week before the HCPer can have his say.

I can't be bothered to rate the Bev meeting (or any meeting for that matter), but if you say it's fast, and it's entered up like that, then it looks a HCP good thing.
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Assembly who ran 3rd to Declamation is entered in a maiden at Newcastle on Tuesday. Rosie Hall..4th runs tomorrow at Redcar 5.10.

Both were well beat ..but first 4 home were 7 in front of the rest...but if either wins could make Declamation very short
 
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Totally different conditions for Assembly. Might get beaten on the soft ground, slight step up in class, or drop to 5F. Possibly just trying to get a nice mark?

Rosie Hall looks possible, down in class, up only half a furlong, but going due to be GD-SFT.

Haven't checked the weather, but theres still hope of a half decent price (all things considered). I'll try to rate that meeting a little later to see if I agree with you. Not sure I'd want to run it at Goodwood though.
 
I was told that colts 'eat up' quicker and therefore recover quicker than the females after a hard race, DO.

Not sure by how much, and if it's a general rule of thumb or just an average.

I think 6 weeks is the maximum time it should take.
 
Had a look at The Beve meeting, EC.

2:10 AUNTIE MILDRED 42
Race fell into it's lap. Though could improve with a bit more of a test. I see it was recently noted on GD-SFT as traveling well in the straight before becoming short of room.

3:10
They'd gone a touch too hard imo, so IRISH BOY deserves a little extra credit, as could have possibly run to about it's mark otherwise. Likely to be knocking on the door on genuine GD-FM, especially in a 0-65.
DIVERTIMENTI looks a contender back over 6F, but is due to go up in the weights.

4:10 DECLAMATION 80
Clocked well. Though it's final section was imo the slowest of the meeting (all things considered). I ended up rating it 80, which could be improved with a better judgment of pace, and is open to future improvement. However, with a penalty I don't think I could call it a 'good thing' if racing in 0-80's, 0-85's this week. It's probably got a couple of lengths in hand (with the penalty), but would be stepping up in class. The 7F contest seems more tempting than the 1M races, but theres plenty of unexposed sorts in there. I'll be happy to just watch, as the price is likely to be on the slim side also.

5:10 MARHABA MALAYEEN 69
Just short of mark. INGLEBY SYMPHONY is probably the one I'd want to take from the race, having been stuck wide, and having to come widest of all in the straight.

5:40 BLACK ANNIS BOWER 58
DIAMOND BLUE wasn't away too well 'again', but is worth keeping an eye on, especially if turning up with the cheek pieces fitted.
 
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i got a big figure on both sets of figures i calculated Chris..these are my traditional figures which allows for weight...there is no wfa added here

28 AUNTIE MILDRED
02 SUPPLICANT
32 MAY BLOSSOM
77 TOTO SKYLLACHY
86 DECLAMATION
46 FLAMINGO BEAT
65 MARHABA MALAYEEN
52 BLACK ANNIS BOWER
 
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