Another Newbie

[Ian_Davies]

It is starting to feel like this is a Thread that only benefits me

Does everyone else on Talking Horses focus purely on backing horses?

Firstly, when you lay a horse you are effectively backing every other runner in the field - I seldom want to do that.

Secondly, I cannot see a written request from you to me in my private messages to start writing about USA racing other than on MY 2025 Belmont Stakes thread.

My imaginary grip on this forum gets looser by the day!

 

[TheHobbitsReturn]

Firstly, when you lay a horse you are effectively backing every other runner in the field - I seldom want to do that.

Secondly, I cannot see a written request from you to me in my private messages to start writing about USA racing other than on MY 2025 Belmont Stakes thread.

My imaginary grip on this forum gets looser by the day!

You are amusing @Ian_Davies

 

[TheHobbitsReturn]

Races on Thursday 18th September 2025 - First 3 picks

13:52 hrs @ Pontefract - I am laying = Mattice

14:15 hrs @ Ayr - I am laying = Vince Lamour

14:45 hrs @ Ayr - I am laying = Hornsea Bay

Caveats =

I Ignore prices the day before, they frequently change and are often misleading.

I am only interested in horses that I believe cannot win.
I often drop a horse from the list on the day, if the race is altered in any way;

A stronger horse becomes a non runner on the day

Rain does not prevent the race, but is unfavourable to stronger horses

The jockey is changed on a stronger horse

Worst scenario = Several horses become non runners

Finally, I always stop when I have achieved even a penny over my desired target, or if any of the above affects the remaining choices, whichever comes first.

Oh and ....

This is not a recommendation, I am just sharing my own opinion, not suggesting anyone else act on it.

 

[2017diary]

Races on Thursday 18th September 2025 - First 3 picks

13:52 hrs @ Pontefract - I am laying = Mattice

14:15 hrs @ Ayr - I am laying = Vince Lamour

14:45 hrs @ Ayr - I am laying = Hornsea Bay

Caveats =

I Ignore prices the day before, they frequently change and are often misleading.

I am only interested in horses that I believe cannot win.
I often drop a horse from the list on the day, if the race is altered in any way;

A stronger horse becomes a non runner on the day

Rain does not prevent the race, but is unfavourable to stronger horses

The jockey is changed on a stronger horse

Worst scenario = Several horses become non runners

Finally, I always stop when I have achieved even a penny over my desired target, or if any of the above affects the remaining choices, whichever comes first.

Oh and ....

This is not a recommendation, I am just sharing my own opinion, not suggesting anyone else act on it.

First two up, wd. GL with Hornsea (I've already stopped for the day).

 

[TheHobbitsReturn]

Races on Thursday 18th September 2025 - First 3 picks

13:52 hrs @ Pontefract - I am laying = Mattice

14:15 hrs @ Ayr - I am laying = Vince Lamour

14:45 hrs @ Ayr - I am laying = Hornsea Bay

Caveats =

I Ignore prices the day before, they frequently change and are often misleading.

I am only interested in horses that I believe cannot win.
I often drop a horse from the list on the day, if the race is altered in any way;

A stronger horse becomes a non runner on the day

Rain does not prevent the race, but is unfavourable to stronger horses

The jockey is changed on a stronger horse

Worst scenario = Several horses become non runners

Finally, I always stop when I have achieved even a penny over my desired target, or if any of the above affects the remaining choices, whichever comes first.

Oh and ....

This is not a recommendation, I am just sharing my own opinion, not suggesting anyone else act on it.

13:52 hrs @ Pontefract - I am laying = Mattice + 250

14:15 hrs @ Ayr - I am laying = Vince Lamour + 250

14:45 hrs @ Ayr - I am laying = Hornsea Bay + 250
250 + 250 + 250 =750

I am done for the UK races today.
Will turn to the US races later.

 

[TheHobbitsReturn]

Races on Friday 19th September 2025 - First 3 picks

14:33 hrs @ Ayr - I am laying = Shine On Me

14:46 hrs @ Downpatrick - I am laying = Must Meet Cecil

15:05 hrs @ Ayr - I am laying = Star Of Mehmas

Caveats =

I Ignore prices the day before, they frequently change and are often misleading.

I am only interested in horses that I believe cannot win.
I often drop a horse from the list on the day, if the race is altered in any way;

A stronger horse becomes a non runner on the day

Rain does not prevent the race, but is unfavourable to stronger horses

The jockey is changed on a stronger horse

Worst scenario = Several horses become non runners

Finally, I always stop when I have achieved even a penny over my desired target, or if any of the above affects the remaining choices, whichever comes first.

Oh and ....

Just to please @Ian_Davies

This is not a recommendation, I am just sharing my own opinion, not suggesting anyone else act on it.

 

[TheHobbitsReturn]

Races on Friday 19th September 2025 - First 3 picks

14:33 hrs @ Ayr - I am laying = Shine On Me

14:46 hrs @ Downpatrick - I am laying = Must Meet Cecil

15:05 hrs @ Ayr - I am laying = Star Of Mehmas

Caveats =

I Ignore prices the day before, they frequently change and are often misleading.

I am only interested in horses that I believe cannot win.
I often drop a horse from the list on the day, if the race is altered in any way;

A stronger horse becomes a non runner on the day

Rain does not prevent the race, but is unfavourable to stronger horses

The jockey is changed on a stronger horse

Worst scenario = Several horses become non runners

Finally, I always stop when I have achieved even a penny over my desired target, or if any of the above affects the remaining choices, whichever comes first.

Oh and ....

Just to please @Ian_Davies

This is not a recommendation, I am just sharing my own opinion, not suggesting anyone else act on it.

14:33 hrs @ Ayr - I am laying = Shine On Me + 250

14:46 hrs @ Downpatrick - I am laying = Must Meet Cecil + 250

15:05 hrs @ Ayr - I am laying = Star Of Mehmas + 250

250 + 250 + 250 =750

I am done for the day
Have fun one and all

 

[TheHobbitsReturn]

14:33 hrs @ Ayr - I am laying = Shine On Me + 250

14:46 hrs @ Downpatrick - I am laying = Must Meet Cecil + 250

15:05 hrs @ Ayr - I am laying = Star Of Mehmas + 250

250 + 250 + 250 =750

I am done for the day
Have fun one and all

I actually laid another 2 that looked weak. Last minute decisions, no time to post.
They were both Maiden's so I laid with £100

Both went my way. However, as they were last minute and as they were maiden races, I feel it is better not to post them given the high risk level.

 

[walsworth]

Well done, I have tried laying many times but it always ended badly. Discipline let me down.

 

[TheHobbitsReturn]

Well done, I have tried laying many times but it always ended badly. Discipline let me down.

Thank you.

I need 3 to go my way and then I stop.
If you look back through my thread you will see the only time I go beyond 3 is when I take a loss.

I let the numbers guide me and work hard to keep emotions out of it.

 

[walsworth]

You’ve piqued my interest now, will have another think about laying. When I make my long list of possible selections, 12 or 15 normally, I only end up backing 2 or 3. The ones that I reject may provide lays.

 

[Ian_Davies]

You’ve piqued my interest now, will have another think about laying. When I make my long list of possible selections, 12 or 15 normally, I only end up backing 2 or 3. The ones that I reject may provide lays.

When Walsworth identifies four "Bismarcks," the rest of TH routinely leg it to the nearest back street independent bookie to put this quartet who can't possibly win in a bonus-infested Lucky 15.

The strategy has resulted in many of the TH massive over the years embarking on a socio-economic journey from residing in a cardboard box to obtaining a mortgage, to clearing said mortgage to moving to a better neighbourhood (so they can promptly lower its tone).

 

[TheHobbitsReturn]

When Walsworth identifies four "Bismarcks," the rest of TH routinely leg it to the nearest back street independent bookie to put this quartet who can't possibly win in a bonus-infested Lucky 15.

The strategy has resulted in many of the TH massive over the years embarking on a socio-economic journey from residing in a cardboard box to obtaining a mortgage, to clearing said mortgage to moving to a better neighbourhood (so they can promptly lower its tone).

LOL

So @walsworth is known for picking winners frequently I guess?

Unless your post is full of sarcasm and the opposite is true @Ian_Davies ?

 

[walsworth]

He's full of something but not sarcasm!

 

[TheHobbitsReturn]

Races on Saturday 20th September 2025 - First 3 picks

13:15 hrs @ Ayr - I am laying = Apiarist

13:30 hrs @ Newbury - I am laying = Shagraan

13:35 hrs @ Newmarket - I am laying = Alfareqa

Caveats =

I Ignore prices the day before, they frequently change and are often misleading.

I am only interested in horses that I believe cannot win.
I often drop a horse from the list on the day, if the race is altered in any way;

A stronger horse becomes a non runner on the day

Rain does not prevent the race, but is unfavourable to stronger horses

The jockey is changed on a stronger horse

Worst scenario = Several horses become non runners

Finally, I always stop when I have achieved even a penny over my desired target, or if any of the above affects the remaining choices, whichever comes first.

Oh and ....

This is not a recommendation, I am just sharing my own opinion, not suggesting anyone else act on it.

 

[TheHobbitsReturn]

Races on Saturday 20th September 2025 - First 3 picks

13:15 hrs @ Ayr - I am laying = Apiarist

13:30 hrs @ Newbury - I am laying = Shagraan

13:35 hrs @ Newmarket - I am laying = Alfareqa

Caveats =

I Ignore prices the day before, they frequently change and are often misleading.

I am only interested in horses that I believe cannot win.
I often drop a horse from the list on the day, if the race is altered in any way;

A stronger horse becomes a non runner on the day

Rain does not prevent the race, but is unfavourable to stronger horses

The jockey is changed on a stronger horse

Worst scenario = Several horses become non runners

Finally, I always stop when I have achieved even a penny over my desired target, or if any of the above affects the remaining choices, whichever comes first.

Oh and ....

This is not a recommendation, I am just sharing my own opinion, not suggesting anyone else act on it.

13:15 hrs @ Ayr - I am laying = Apiarist + 250

13:30 hrs @ Newbury - I am laying = Shagraan + 250

13:35 hrs @ Newmarket - I am laying = Alfareqa + 250

250 + 250 + 250 =750

I am done for the day.
Have fun one and all.

 

[TheHobbitsReturn]

Does anyone have any tips for backing on tomorrows races?

A simple;

This horse
This time
This track

Would be great, please

Mentioning that before @Ian_Davies writes an answer long enough to be classed as an editorial in the Sunday Times

@Danny @Len Madeiros @2017diary
@Slim @Gullible
@walsworth

 

[NHughes]

I'd personally stick to what you are doing, it seems to be working for you

 

[2017diary]

I'd personally stick to what you are doing, it seems to be working for you

Agreed, and seeing me there should be

 

[TheHobbitsReturn]

I'd personally stick to what you are doing, it seems to be working for you

Fair enough.

 

[walsworth]

I've had a bad day, not unusual for me on a Saturday.
I keep saying that I will stop betting on Saturdays but still don't learn.

 

[TheHobbitsReturn]

Races on Sunday 21st September 2025 - First 3 picks

14:20 hrs @ Plumpton - I am laying = Fine By Me

14:28 hrs @ Listowel - I am laying = Whats New

14:58 hrs @ Newmarket - I am laying = Dream On Baby

Caveats =

I Ignore prices the day before, they frequently change and are often misleading.

I am only interested in horses that I believe cannot win.
I often drop a horse from the list on the day, if the race is altered in any way;

A stronger horse becomes a non runner on the day

Rain does not prevent the race, but is unfavourable to stronger horses

The jockey is changed on a stronger horse

Worst scenario = Several horses become non runners

Finally, I always stop when I have achieved even a penny over my desired target, or if any of the above affects the remaining choices, whichever comes first.

Oh and ....

This is not a recommendation, I am just sharing my own opinion, not suggesting anyone else act on it.

 

[Outsider]

You seem to be doing OK. Keep it up.

 

[TheHobbitsReturn]

Races on Sunday 21st September 2025 - First 3 picks

14:20 hrs @ Plumpton - I am laying = Fine By Me

14:28 hrs @ Listowel - I am laying = Whats New

14:58 hrs @ Newmarket - I am laying = Dream On Baby

Caveats =

I Ignore prices the day before, they frequently change and are often misleading.

I am only interested in horses that I believe cannot win.
I often drop a horse from the list on the day, if the race is altered in any way;

A stronger horse becomes a non runner on the day

Rain does not prevent the race, but is unfavourable to stronger horses

The jockey is changed on a stronger horse

Worst scenario = Several horses become non runners

Finally, I always stop when I have achieved even a penny over my desired target, or if any of the above affects the remaining choices, whichever comes first.

Oh and ....

This is not a recommendation, I am just sharing my own opinion, not suggesting anyone else act on it.

14:20 hrs @ Plumpton - I am laying = Fine By Me + 250

14:28 hrs @ Listowel - I am laying = What's New + 250

14:58 hrs @ Newmarket - I am laying = Dream On Baby + 250

250 + 250 + 250 = 750

Tad annoyed with myself as I was pretty sure I could lay Kyber Crystal and Everest, but something spooked me so I sat them out.
I would have been finished for the day after Kyber Crystal

Anyway, I am done for the day.
Have fun one and all.

 

[2017diary]

14:20 hrs @ Plumpton - I am laying = Fine By Me + 250

14:28 hrs @ Listowel - I am laying = What's New + 250

14:58 hrs @ Newmarket - I am laying = Dream On Baby + 250

250 + 250 + 250 = 750

Tad annoyed with myself as I was pretty sure I could lay Kyber Crystal and Everest, but something spooked me so I sat them out.
I would have been finished for the day after Kyber Crystal

Anyway, I am done for the day.
Have fun one and all.

WD - as a rule with lays there's more to lose if you carry on instead of sitting them out.