• REGISTER NOW!! Why? Because you can't do much without having been registered!

    At the moment you have limited access to view all discussions - and most importantly, you haven't joined our community. What are you waiting for? Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free so please, join Join Talking Horses here!

Another Newbie

TheHobbitsReturn said:
Races on Tuesday 7th October September 2025 - Fourth 3 picks

15:45 hrs @ Brighton - I am laying = Silk And Steel

15:50 hrs @ Galway - I am laying = Grace Faraday

16:00 hrs @ Leicester - I am laying = Aussie Pearl

Caveats =

I Ignore prices the day before, they frequently change and are often misleading.

I am only interested in horses that I believe cannot win.
I often drop a horse from the list on the day, if the race is altered in any way;

A stronger horse becomes a non runner on the day

Rain does not prevent the race, but is unfavourable to stronger horses

The jockey is changed on a stronger horse

Worst scenario = Several horses become non runners

Finally, I always stop when I have achieved even a penny over my desired target, or if any of the above affects the remaining choices, whichever comes first.

Oh and ....

This is not a recommendation, I am just sharing my own opinion, not suggesting anyone else act on it.
Click to expand...

15:45 hrs @ Brighton - I am laying = Silk And Steel - 1920

15:50 hrs @ Galway - I am laying = Grace Faraday + 300

16:00 hrs @ Leicester - I am laying = Aussie Pearl + 100 (Because it was a maiden)
Rolled from first 3 races 300 + 300 - 1560 =-960

Rolled from second 3 races - 960 + 300 + 300 - 930 =-1.290

Rolled from third 3 races - 1290 + 300 - 1620 + 300 =-2.310

- 2310 -1920 + 300 =-3.930 + 100 =-3.830

Something is clearly going wrong. I was told a lot of horses improve this time of year.
Not sure how a horse that has maintained an OR of 51 and a Speed rating in the single digits, can improve enough to beat a horse with a 68 OR and a speed rating of 62

Unless of course, said horse had been held back in prior races,

Anyway, I will review the system again. I am not in to losing money.
 
TheHobbitsReturn said:
That's it. I am stopping for the day. I have no one to blame but myself.

Not sure why I carried on past 770 profit

This month is now

1050 + 640 + 110 - 3745 =-1.945

Not a great start, but it could be worse.

Anyway, I have not taken a break for more than 30 days, so I will take a day off tomorrow.
Back soon.

Have fun one and all.
Click to expand...
Month to Date =

- 1945 As of Saturday 4th

Added 700 profit on Sunday 5th before heading out with the Mrs

Monday 6th added 1200 profit

Today tarted with 300 on the Aussie and then -3.830

- 1945 + 700 + 1200 + 300 - 3830 =-3.575

As of today, the 7th

Which is, quite honestly, shit!

A far cry for the performance of the last 7 months,
 
The forums are cursed Hobbit.

Last jumps season and in NH races during the summer I was finding winners consistently.
Started posting on here and put up 10 straight losers.
 
So

I stopped posting and just completed a run of 12 wins

12 X 300 =3,600

What a relief

Fortunate Star was the best of them as it was second to last. 😊

I am relieved and done for the day 😊
 
TheHobbitsReturn said:
So

I stopped posting and just completed a run of 12 wins

12 X 300 =3,600

What a relief

Fortunate Star was the best of them as it was second to last. 😊

I am relieved and done for the day 😊
Click to expand...
Today tarted with 300 on the Aussie and then -3.830

- 1945 + 700 + 1200 + 300 - 3830 =-3.575

-3575 + 3600 =25

Now I can start the month again.

With some careful planning.
 
Aussie Races this morning

100 + 100 + 100 =300
 

Attachments

  • Screenshot 2025-10-08 at Exceed The Boom.png
    Screenshot 2025-10-08 at Exceed The Boom.png
    30.1 KB · Views: 4
  • Screenshot 2025-10-08 Perfect Picture.png
    Screenshot 2025-10-08 Perfect Picture.png
    30.5 KB · Views: 4
  • Screenshot 2025-10-08 Scoundrel.png
    Screenshot 2025-10-08 Scoundrel.png
    28.9 KB · Views: 4
UK / Ireland

300 + 300 + 300 =900
 

Attachments

  • Screenshot 2025-10-08 Anushka.png
    Screenshot 2025-10-08 Anushka.png
    61.8 KB · Views: 2
  • Screenshot 2025-10-08 Personal Best.png
    Screenshot 2025-10-08 Personal Best.png
    49.1 KB · Views: 2
  • Screenshot 2025-10-08 Poweracclaim.png
    Screenshot 2025-10-08 Poweracclaim.png
    69 KB · Views: 2
I realise I did not post before the races. However, I felt it best to post after the race given the recent issues.
Once I see a return to regular winnings, I will start posting as tips again.
 
Tbh that sort of makes a mockery of the lot Hobbits. You're laying bets into a book that's near as damn it 100%. The margins are so tight what can you expect ? You have days and days of picking up 750 a day and clocking off early but I can't believe that you expect not to have days where you have your arse handed to you and drop a few bags that has to be the norm surely ? If you're saying it hasn't been in the 7 months you've been doing it you've been lucky fella. What % would you expect to be making on turnover ? I find it strange that you're quick to worry about a few losses.
 
Danny said:
Tbh that sort of makes a mockery of the lot Hobbits. You're laying bets into a book that's near as damn it 100%. The margins are so tight what can you expect ? You have days and days of picking up 750 a day and clocking off early but I can't believe that you expect not to have days where you have your arse handed to you and drop a few bags that has to be the norm surely ? If you're saying it hasn't been in the 7 months you've been doing it you've been lucky fella. What % would you expect to be making on turnover ? I find it strange that you're quick to worry about a few losses.
Click to expand...
What I find weird - and I mean REALLY weird - is stopping for the day if a certain daily profit target is reached.

Either a method works or it doesn't and what's the difference between the next bet (which is swerved) on a day the target is reached and the first bet the next day?
 
Danny said:
Tbh that sort of makes a mockery of the lot Hobbits. You're laying bets into a book that's near as damn it 100%. The margins are so tight what can you expect ? You have days and days of picking up 750 a day and clocking off early but I can't believe that you expect not to have days where you have your arse handed to you and drop a few bags that has to be the norm surely ? If you're saying it hasn't been in the 7 months you've been doing it you've been lucky fella. What % would you expect to be making on turnover ? I find it strange that you're quick to worry about a few losses.
Click to expand...
I am not the best at writing @Danny

I do not always articulate as well as I could.

recently, as everyone saw, I had a prolonged period of winning

My point was more that I want to see some consistency before I post tips, as I would hate for others to lose money copying me if their accounts are not big enough to take the swings
 
Ian_Davies said:
What I find weird - and I mean REALLY weird - is stopping for the day if a certain daily profit target is reached.

Either a method works or it doesn't and what's the difference between the next bet (which is swerved) on a day the target is reached and the first bet the next day?
Click to expand...
I reckon he stops because its gone past his bed time in whatever country this dude resides in. :).
 
Ian_Davies said:
What I find weird - and I mean REALLY weird - is stopping for the day if a certain daily profit target is reached.

Either a method works or it doesn't and what's the difference between the next bet (which is swerved) on a day the target is reached and the first bet the next day?
Click to expand...
I used to be a full time financial trader and still am a part time trader, this is the way we work.

Overall, it usually works out well.
 

Recent Blog Posts

Back
Top