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Another Newbie

TheHobbitsReturn said:
I am not the best at writing @Danny

I do not always articulate as well as I could.

recently, as everyone saw, I had a prolonged period of winning

My point was more that I want to see some consistency before I post tips, as I would hate for others to lose money copying me if their accounts are not big enough to take the swings
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Your writing certainly isnt a problem.

You're obviously doing alright on some level to be playing the stakes your playing and living in 3 countries.

That said an i mean no offence but you bet like a crack head and thats coming from someone who's bet like a crackhead most of his life.

What i mean by that is if you were laying 3 horses a day you win your 750 and toddle off then you should toddle off even if you've had a loser and do another 3 the next day.

What i cant understand is on days you've had a loser you suddenly can come up with ( as I haven't paid that much attention to thread) ive seen at least a 5th wave of 3. So 15 lays. If you have 15 decent lays set up for day and youre confident in your system why not lay them all ? Why quit after 3 and leave 12 what you see to be good lays left on the table each day. A bets either a bet or its not. If I found 10 good bets in a day id back them all. I wouldn't back 3 and then think f%*& it that'll do and let the rest go unbacked. Surely the way you play with a system that you're convinced will show a profit long term then surely the more you turnover a day the more you will make in the long run. It all makes no sense to me.

And yes ive seen the good runs for a while it just looked like you were picking up 750 a day and making it all look easy and im not really doubting that you're not making money. For all I know you might be the most gifted layer of all time and be making fortunes I couldnt care one way or the other and im always pleased as punch to see anyone make the game pay. But dont piss on my shoes and tell me its raining. At one point you were 3 and a half bags down disappear and say ive made 3 and a half bags back once more Im not doubt that you did but would you of come back if you'd done another 3 and half ? At one point you said you worked of a 10k pot if you'd of done 70% of your stack in one day that makes it at least interesting. I dont mind watching people win if fact I love it but if people are gonna show me themselves winning I wanna watch them when they bleed also or the whole lot is a crock of shit, it's not a real representation of what gamblers go through. NH Andy said he'd had 12 losers on the bounce since posting. Do I think he's full of shit when he said he was winning last year? No because I can tell who knows the time of day and who doesn't and I would guarentee if Andy keeps posting he'll turn it around and there will ve no-one more pleased than me when he does.

I have no doubt you know what youre doing hobbits and you're probably going to do well in the long run but dont try and sell us a fairy story this game is never all happy win,win,win! . If youre prepared to win in public be prepared to bleed and show your scars. Its a much more interesting and believable story that way.
 
"What i cant understand is on days you've had a loser you suddenly can come up with ( as I haven't paid that much attention to thread) ive seen at least a 5th wave of 3. So 15 lays. If you have 15 decent lays set up for day and youre confident in your system why not lay them all ?"

Ok.
This is the trader in me.
Think of it this way.

I research 12 horses a day. Line them up in tabs ready to go.

However, typically some of those picks may lose

So if the first 3 go my way, rather than risk an entire days "battle" to recover losses, I stop.

However, if I take a hit in one of the 3, I have 9 more researched and ready to cover helping me recover the losses and make profit. As I start using those, I research more in case another hit occurs.

Experience has taught me that unless the system misses some data, I can usually get back to at least zero on a bad day.

There are of course days where a hit would not have occurred for more than 9 races, but I am not here to gamble all day, I just want a decent return and then exit ready for the next day.

If you read back through my thread, you will see I only continue after a loss when I have others ready to go and I always stop when I hit my target.
 
I have no doubt you know what youre doing hobbits and you're probably going to do well in the long run but dont try and sell us a fairy story this game is never all happy win,win,win! . If youre prepared to win in public be prepared to bleed and show your scars. Its a much more interesting and believable story that way.

= I have no issue with doing that. I have done so since the start. I just don't want people copying and taking losses their accounts cannot afford to take.

I have a base of 35k (having rolled over most of last months profit to create a bigger base). Not everyone has that, although I have met a few running accounts that dwarf mine.

I can post all my tips in advance as I have been, as long as any gamblers use caution.
People who bet sometimes chase losses.

I only continue if I have a high level of conviction in the positions I am taking.

And sometimes, as we have seen, I stop realising that conviction is misplaced because data is being missed.

I guess I could either

Post as I did throughout the last 8 weeks

Or

Post my PNL and the end of the month.

One shows everything but risks copycats taking some losses

The other shows the reality for the month with only me taking the risk
 
Hobbits you put a disclaimer on every f$%^ing bet even without that if people do their brains then thats on them.

Tbh I doubt too many are following your lays and certainly not to your stakes. Surely anyone who was going to follow tips would only do so after a decent period of seeing if they were actually profitable and they cant really do that if the losses are hidden.

There was once a poker player Dave Ulliot who said he'd seen people think they we're good at poker but they weren't they'd just got lucky for a long while. He said he'd seen players he knew were shit get lucky and win for periods as long as 2 years and then it all fell apart for them. I never forgot that and as a rule until anyone's been doing anything for a great deal of time then I'm more liable to judge them as on a good run rather than knowing what they are doing.
 
Danny said:
Your writing certainly isnt a problem.

You're obviously doing alright on some level to be playing the stakes your playing and living in 3 countries.

That said an i mean no offence but you bet like a crack head and thats coming from someone who's bet like a crackhead most of his life.

What i mean by that is if you were laying 3 horses a day you win your 750 and toddle off then you should toddle off even if you've had a loser and do another 3 the next day.

What i cant understand is on days you've had a loser you suddenly can come up with ( as I haven't paid that much attention to thread) ive seen at least a 5th wave of 3. So 15 lays. If you have 15 decent lays set up for day and youre confident in your system why not lay them all ? Why quit after 3 and leave 12 what you see to be good lays left on the table each day. A bets either a bet or its not. If I found 10 good bets in a day id back them all. I wouldn't back 3 and then think f%*& it that'll do and let the rest go unbacked. Surely the way you play with a system that you're convinced will show a profit long term then surely the more you turnover a day the more you will make in the long run. It all makes no sense to me.

And yes ive seen the good runs for a while it just looked like you were picking up 750 a day and making it all look easy and im not really doubting that you're not making money. For all I know you might be the most gifted layer of all time and be making fortunes I couldnt care one way or the other and im always pleased as punch to see anyone make the game pay. But dont piss on my shoes and tell me its raining. At one point you were 3 and a half bags down disappear and say ive made 3 and a half bags back once more Im not doubt that you did but would you of come back if you'd done another 3 and half ? At one point you said you worked of a 10k pot if you'd of done 70% of your stack in one day that makes it at least interesting. I dont mind watching people win if fact I love it but if people are gonna show me themselves winning I wanna watch them when they bleed also or the whole lot is a crock of shit, it's not a real representation of what gamblers go through. NH Andy said he'd had 12 losers on the bounce since posting. Do I think he's full of shit when he said he was winning last year? No because I can tell who knows the time of day and who doesn't and I would guarentee if Andy keeps posting he'll turn it around and there will ve no-one more pleased than me when he does.

I have no doubt you know what youre doing hobbits and you're probably going to do well in the long run but dont try and sell us a fairy story this game is never all happy win,win,win! . If youre prepared to win in public be prepared to bleed and show your scars. Its a much more interesting and believable story that way.
Click to expand...
September was exceptional it terms of a run without hits.

Not the highest profit in a month though, but decent none the less.
 
To a degree I understand the approach of getting out for the day after a certain profit/loss , I haven't done it with horses but it's reminiscent of what I did when years ago I used to play a lot of blackjack using basic strategy and counting 10s.

Each visit I'd go with a fixed amount I was willing to lose that day and I'd call it night if I was ahead enough, plus I would never let a winning day turn into a losing one i.e. I would use a ratchet effect in that once I was a certain amount ahead I would pocket a certain amount so I was only playing against the house with it's own money then if I lost it I would walk but if I got further ahead I would pocket some more and repeat.

I've seen pals be up £1000s but still end up with fk all cos they just couldn't walk away and live to fight another day.
 
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Should have posted this pre race, got distracted by the Mrs needing help.
Anyway, + 100
 

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pawras said:
To a degree I understand the approach of getting out for the day after a certain profit/loss , I haven't done it with horses but it's reminiscent of what I did when years ago I used to play a lot of blackjack using basic strategy and counting 10s.

Each visit I'd go with a fixed amount I was willing to lose that day and I'd call it night if I was ahead enough, plus I would never let a winning day turn into a losing one i.e. I would use a ratchet effect in that once I was a certain amount ahead I would pocket a certain amount so I was only playing against the house with it's own money then if I lost it I would walk but if I got further ahead I would pocket some more and repeat.

I've seen pals be up £1000s but still end up with fk all cos they just couldn't walk away and live to fight another day.
Click to expand...
I got hassled out of a Vegas casino after they saw me do exactly that every day for a week.

They do not like people winning and walking away.

It paid for our dinners and the hotel 😊

5 days of 3400 winnings (total) and 2 days of 780 loss (total)

Some security guy checked me for "tech"
He made quite a fuss.

Probably did not help that my mate was winning as well.
 
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TheHobbitsReturn said:
I got hassled out of a Vegas casino after they saw me do exactly that every day for a week.

They do not like people winning and walking away.

It paid for our dinners and the hotel 😊

5 days of 3400 winnings (total) and 2 days of 780 loss (total)

Some security guy checked me for "tech"
He made quite a fuss.

Probably did not help that my mate was winning as well.
Click to expand...
I've been to Vegas a couple of times, Macao made it look a bit tame for sheer manic gambling I saw taking place

When I played regularly like that it was in central london in such as the Park Tower

I never got hassled , although one of the croupiers quizzed me a bit once as I was playing.

For what I played for I doubt they were bothered cos I was next to guys doing 500 a hand
 

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