Another Newbie

[TheHobbitsReturn]

one from a lad on our forum who puts up one lay a day

1500 Newmarket GStaad

1/2 with my O’Brien lays yesterday as Precise delivered impressively.
I’ll take this one on today as I don’t believe it will see the distance out as well as some of the others.
Beaten by Zavateri on yielding ground over 7 furlongs at the Curragh.
There was no luck about the win, it dug deep and managed to get its head where it counted.
That was Zavateri’s distance whereas Gstaad has only won at 6 furlongs and has the disadvantage of an uphill finish here.
Gstaad is the only horse in this race not to have won at the distance – Race trends have 17/23 for previous distance winners.
Distant Storm has won twice in over the distance and on similar ground. Its last win was very good and there looked to be more in the tank as it won by over 4 lengths.
Jockey remains a weak link for me despite the win yesterday.
That was his first winner here since April 2022 and the 5 yr record now stands at 3/18.
His record for the Trainer when riding in the UK/Ireland is 4/26. Three of those wins came at Leopardstown and it’s 1/11 in the UK.
Compare that with Buick and Appleby whose 5 year strike rate at the course is 385 for a BSP profit of 142 points.
I can’t see a reason why Gstaad should overturn the form with Zavateri and I don’t see it finishing in front of Distant Storm who I expect to win.
Overall profile of the race makes it opposable.

This is what my system has come up with - see attached.

When it shows the horse in both Backing and laying, it is suggesting that the horse may get placed but is unlikely to win.
If you follow my thread regularly, you will have seen that some of the horses I have laid came second, sometimes an all too close second

It also suggests a Lower stake for that very reason, although at this price I would not chose to do that,

 

[TheHobbitsReturn]

Races on Saturday 11th October 2025 - First 3 picks

13:15 hrs @ Newmarket - I am laying = First Conquest

13:30 hrs @ York - I am laying = Flying Comet

13:35 hrs @ Chepstow - I am laying = Lunar Orbit

Caveats =

I Ignore prices the day before, they frequently change and are often misleading.

I am only interested in horses that I believe cannot win.
I often drop a horse from the list on the day, if the race is altered in any way;

A stronger horse becomes a non runner on the day

Rain does not prevent the race, but is unfavourable to stronger horses

The jockey is changed on a stronger horse

Worst scenario = Several horses become non runners

Finally, I always stop when I have achieved even a penny over my desired target, or if any of the above affects the remaining choices, whichever comes first.

Oh and ....

This is not a recommendation, I am just sharing my own opinion, not suggesting anyone else act on it.

 

[TheHobbitsReturn]

Also, my system has given a high probability to Ice Jet being place in the 13:35 hrs @ Chepstow

I may place a small wager for placing

 

[TheHobbitsReturn]

Also, my system has given a high probability to Ice Jet being place in the 13:35 hrs @ Chepstow

I may place a small wager for placing

 

[TheHobbitsReturn]

Races on Saturday 11th October 2025 - First 3 picks

13:15 hrs @ Newmarket - I am laying = First Conquest

13:30 hrs @ York - I am laying = Flying Comet

13:35 hrs @ Chepstow - I am laying = Lunar Orbit

Caveats =

I Ignore prices the day before, they frequently change and are often misleading.

I am only interested in horses that I believe cannot win.
I often drop a horse from the list on the day, if the race is altered in any way;

A stronger horse becomes a non runner on the day

Rain does not prevent the race, but is unfavourable to stronger horses

The jockey is changed on a stronger horse

Worst scenario = Several horses become non runners

Finally, I always stop when I have achieved even a penny over my desired target, or if any of the above affects the remaining choices, whichever comes first.

Oh and ....

This is not a recommendation, I am just sharing my own opinion, not suggesting anyone else act on it.

13:15 hrs @ Newmarket - I am laying = First Conquest + 300

13:30 hrs @ York - I am laying = Flying Comet + 300

13:35 hrs @ Chepstow - I am laying = Lunar Orbit + 300

300 + 300 + 300 = 900

I am done for the day.
Have fun one and all.

 

[TheHobbitsReturn]

Aussie 300

UK / Ireland 900

Backing a horse to place - 100

Total 1100

 

[TheHobbitsReturn]

Aussie 300

UK / Ireland 900

Backing a horse to place - 100

Total 1100

I have to stop backing, I am shit at it...

 

[2017diary]

I have to stop backing, I am shit at it...

When you find you're good at something why change things? Leave the backing & losing to me

 

[TheHobbitsReturn]

This is what my system has come up with - see attached.

When it shows the horse in both Backing and laying, it is suggesting that the horse may get placed but is unlikely to win.
If you follow my thread regularly, you will have seen that some of the horses I have laid came second, sometimes an all too close second

It also suggests a Lower stake for that very reason, although at this price I would not chose to do that,

So GStaad finished 2nd

Proving your tip and showing my system still works

 

[TheHobbitsReturn]

I am laying Acoustic Bubbles in the R1 @ Geraldton

 

[TheHobbitsReturn]

I am laying Sand N Power in the R7 @ Cairns

 

[TheHobbitsReturn]

I am laying Lovelycut in the R9 @ Seymour

 

[TheHobbitsReturn]

I am laying Acoustic Bubbles in the R1 @ Geraldton

+ 100

 

[TheHobbitsReturn]

I am laying Lovelycut in the R9 @ Seymour

- 310

 

[TheHobbitsReturn]

I am laying Sand N Power in the R7 @ Cairns

- 560

 

[TheHobbitsReturn]

Aussie

100 - 310 - 560 =-770

Not a great start to the day. There are more races at Geraldton, but the only others are harness racing....

 

[TheHobbitsReturn]

So

The Betting Syndicate idea (Betting,
NOT shared horse ownership)

I now have 21 people interested, most of whom have known me a long time.
Jon spoke to some of them in a bid to encourage me to agree.

16 want to put in £500 each (8,000)

1 wants to put in £250 and let it roll

3 want to put in £1000 each (3,000)

1 wants to put in £2000

The original idea came from Jon, who has known me since I was 23

He saw the results and wanted to benefit

His idea is as follows

Each lot starts at either £250 or £500

1 lot minimum

Maximum of £2,000 per person
Either 4 or 8 lot maximum, depending on the size we settle on

Total allocation 20k

Payouts on 21st June and 21st December each year (not monthly as it allows the capital to build) The first payout being 21st June next year.

Payouts on a per lot basis

For the syndicate to be legal in the UK, I will also be a syndicate member

Reports will be quarterly

Members will not involved at all. I do not want anyone trying to influence the way I run it.

Aside from the obvious = The betting itself

Are there any other risks that I need to be aware of?

I can run 2 accounts easily, it is basically the same work and an extra click of a button.

What else should I consider?

 

[TheHobbitsReturn]

Races on Sunday 12th October 2025 - First 3 picks

13:10 hrs @ Cork - I am laying = Ronnies Rascal

13:25 hrs @ Naas - I am laying = Institute

13:32 hrs @ Chepstow - I am laying = Safe Destination

Caveats =

I Ignore prices the day before, they frequently change and are often misleading.

I am only interested in horses that I believe cannot win.
I often drop a horse from the list on the day, if the race is altered in any way;

A stronger horse becomes a non runner on the day

Rain does not prevent the race, but is unfavourable to stronger horses

The jockey is changed on a stronger horse

Worst scenario = Several horses become non runners

Finally, I always stop when I have achieved even a penny over my desired target, or if any of the above affects the remaining choices, whichever comes first.

Oh and ....

This is not a recommendation, I am just sharing my own opinion, not suggesting anyone else act on it.

 

[TheHobbitsReturn]

Races on Sunday 12th October 2025 - First 3 picks

13:10 hrs @ Cork - I am laying = Ronnies Rascal

13:25 hrs @ Naas - I am laying = Institute

13:32 hrs @ Chepstow - I am laying = Safe Destination

Caveats =

I Ignore prices the day before, they frequently change and are often misleading.

I am only interested in horses that I believe cannot win.
I often drop a horse from the list on the day, if the race is altered in any way;

A stronger horse becomes a non runner on the day

Rain does not prevent the race, but is unfavourable to stronger horses

The jockey is changed on a stronger horse

Worst scenario = Several horses become non runners

Finally, I always stop when I have achieved even a penny over my desired target, or if any of the above affects the remaining choices, whichever comes first.

Oh and ....

This is not a recommendation, I am just sharing my own opinion, not suggesting anyone else act on it.

13:10 hrs @ Cork - I am laying = Ronnies Rascal + 300

13:25 hrs @ Naas - I am laying = Institute + 300

13:32 hrs @ Chepstow - I am laying = Safe Destination - 1020

300 + 300 - 1020 =-420

 

[TheHobbitsReturn]

Races on Sunday 12th October 2025 - Second 3 picks

13:42 hrs @ Cork - I am laying = Wizard Of Odds

13:52 hrs @ Goodwood - I am laying = Merrijig

14:00 hrs @ Naas - I am laying = Strike Zone

Caveats =

I Ignore prices the day before, they frequently change and are often misleading.

I am only interested in horses that I believe cannot win.
I often drop a horse from the list on the day, if the race is altered in any way;

A stronger horse becomes a non runner on the day

Rain does not prevent the race, but is unfavourable to stronger horses

The jockey is changed on a stronger horse

Worst scenario = Several horses become non runners

Finally, I always stop when I have achieved even a penny over my desired target, or if any of the above affects the remaining choices, whichever comes first.

Oh and ....

This is not a recommendation, I am just sharing my own opinion, not suggesting anyone else act on it.

 

[TheHobbitsReturn]

Races on Sunday 12th October 2025 - Second 3 picks

13:42 hrs @ Cork - I am laying = Wizard Of Odds

13:52 hrs @ Goodwood - I am laying = Merrijig

14:00 hrs @ Naas - I am laying = Strike Zone

Caveats =

I Ignore prices the day before, they frequently change and are often misleading.

I am only interested in horses that I believe cannot win.
I often drop a horse from the list on the day, if the race is altered in any way;

A stronger horse becomes a non runner on the day

Rain does not prevent the race, but is unfavourable to stronger horses

The jockey is changed on a stronger horse

Worst scenario = Several horses become non runners

Finally, I always stop when I have achieved even a penny over my desired target, or if any of the above affects the remaining choices, whichever comes first.

Oh and ....

This is not a recommendation, I am just sharing my own opinion, not suggesting anyone else act on it.

13:42 hrs @ Cork - I am laying = Wizard Of Odds - 1560

13:52 hrs @ Goodwood - I am laying = Merrijig + 300

14:00 hrs @ Naas - I am laying = Strike Zone + 300


Rolled from earlier races = 300 + 300 - 1020 =-420

- 420 - 1560 + 300 + 300 =-1,380

 

[TheHobbitsReturn]

Races on Sunday 12th October 2025 - Third 3 picks

14:07 hrs @ Chepstow - I am laying = Riviera Walk

14:17 hrs @ Cork - I am laying = Mon Sheriffe

14:27 hrs @ Goodwood - I am laying = Mollstar (May change to another horse)

Caveats =

I Ignore prices the day before, they frequently change and are often misleading.

I am only interested in horses that I believe cannot win.
I often drop a horse from the list on the day, if the race is altered in any way;

A stronger horse becomes a non runner on the day

Rain does not prevent the race, but is unfavourable to stronger horses

The jockey is changed on a stronger horse

Worst scenario = Several horses become non runners

Finally, I always stop when I have achieved even a penny over my desired target, or if any of the above affects the remaining choices, whichever comes first.

Oh and ....

This is not a recommendation, I am just sharing my own opinion, not suggesting anyone else act on it.

 

[TheHobbitsReturn]

Races on Sunday 12th October 2025 - Third 3 picks

14:07 hrs @ Chepstow - I am laying = Riviera Walk

14:17 hrs @ Cork - I am laying = Mon Sheriffe

14:27 hrs @ Goodwood - I am laying = Mollstar (May change to another horse)

Caveats =

I Ignore prices the day before, they frequently change and are often misleading.

I am only interested in horses that I believe cannot win.
I often drop a horse from the list on the day, if the race is altered in any way;

A stronger horse becomes a non runner on the day

Rain does not prevent the race, but is unfavourable to stronger horses

The jockey is changed on a stronger horse

Worst scenario = Several horses become non runners

Finally, I always stop when I have achieved even a penny over my desired target, or if any of the above affects the remaining choices, whichever comes first.

Oh and ....

This is not a recommendation, I am just sharing my own opinion, not suggesting anyone else act on it.

14:07 hrs @ Chepstow - I am laying = Riviera Walk + 300

14:17 hrs @ Cork - I am laying = Mon Sheriffe + 300

14:27 hrs @ Goodwood - I am laying = Mollstar (May change to another horse) + 300


Rolled from earlier races = 300 + 300 - 1020 =-420

- 420 - 1560 + 300 + 300 =-1,380

- 1380 + 300 + 300 + 300 =-480

 

[TheHobbitsReturn]

Races on Sunday 12th October 2025 - fourth 3 picks

14:35 hrs @ Naas - I am laying = Listentodwindblow

14:52 hrs @ Cork - I am laying = Found A Diamond

15:02 hrs @ Goodwood - I am laying = Authentic Charm ** Changed from Crazee Icon **

Caveats =

I Ignore prices the day before, they frequently change and are often misleading.

I am only interested in horses that I believe cannot win.
I often drop a horse from the list on the day, if the race is altered in any way;

A stronger horse becomes a non runner on the day

Rain does not prevent the race, but is unfavourable to stronger horses

The jockey is changed on a stronger horse

Worst scenario = Several horses become non runners

Finally, I always stop when I have achieved even a penny over my desired target, or if any of the above affects the remaining choices, whichever comes first.

Oh and ....

This is not a recommendation, I am just sharing my own opinion, not suggesting anyone else act on it.

 

[TheHobbitsReturn]

Races on Sunday 12th October 2025 - fourth 3 picks

14:35 hrs @ Naas - I am laying = Listentodwindblow

14:52 hrs @ Cork - I am laying = Found A Diamond

15:02 hrs @ Goodwood - I am laying = Authentic Charm ** Changed from Crazee Icon **

Caveats =

I Ignore prices the day before, they frequently change and are often misleading.

I am only interested in horses that I believe cannot win.
I often drop a horse from the list on the day, if the race is altered in any way;

A stronger horse becomes a non runner on the day

Rain does not prevent the race, but is unfavourable to stronger horses

The jockey is changed on a stronger horse

Worst scenario = Several horses become non runners

Finally, I always stop when I have achieved even a penny over my desired target, or if any of the above affects the remaining choices, whichever comes first.

Oh and ....

This is not a recommendation, I am just sharing my own opinion, not suggesting anyone else act on it.

14:35 hrs @ Naas - I am laying = Listentodwindblow + 300

14:52 hrs @ Cork - I am laying = Found A Diamond + 300

15:02 hrs @ Goodwood - I am laying = Authentic Charm ** Changed from Crazee Icon ** + 300

Rolled from earlier races = 300 + 300 - 1020 =-420

- 420 - 1560 + 300 + 300 =-1,380

- 1380 + 300 + 300 + 300 =-480

- 480 + 300 + 300 + 300 =420