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Another Newbie

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1551 Market Rasen Nickelforce

Performing well but I think its place at the head of the market is wrong.

2 Chase wins to its name, and the highest winning mark has been 105. Since that win he has been competing off marks at 110 or higher and not been able to get his head in front. Of the 8 runs since the win, the closest he’s got is 1 ¼ lengths on one occasion the remainder being 3 upwards.
All his wins have been in Class 5 events. There have been 13 attempts in Class 4 or higher and 0 wins.
The record on undulating courses is 1/7 and the record on courses going right-handed with undulations is 0/4.

Trainer at the Course the last 5 years is 1/34 with the Chase side being 1/16.
That sole win came in February 2022 and his Chase losing run is 11.

Sure Touch ticks all the boxes if all is well and I couldn’t discount Chief Black Robe off the weight and with the Trainer form.
Lermoos Legend I’d be a little less confident with but it’s the Bowens and could produce anything.

I might be missing something but this level with the rating seems too much.
 
TheHobbitsReturn said:
Races on Tuesday 14th October 2025 - First 9 picks

13:30 hrs @ Lingfield - I am laying = Jack Langley

13:44 hrs @ Leicester - I am laying = Thisonesforyou

13:51 hrs @ Market Rasen - I am laying = Heart Over Head ( Only if the numbers drop below 12. Anything above that and I abort )

\

14:00 hrs @ Lingfield - I am laying = Muy Muy Loco

14:05 hrs @ Puncheston - I am laying = Secret Force / Also believe Superficial is weak, but the price is currently far too high.

14:14 hrs @ Leicester - I am laying = Backfire ( Note; Hollie Doyle is riding GIRLS ALLOWED in this race. I would not be surprised to see it get placed )

\

14:21 hrs @ Market Rasen - I am laying = Freshers Week

14:30 hrs @ Lingfield - I am laying = Mortubo ** ODDS WILL NEED TO IMPROVE CONSIDERABLY, OTHERWISE I WILL AVOID THIS RACE **

14:35 @ Puncheston - I am laying = Derry Lad ** May switch pick closer to the time, if I am still covering at this point **

Caveats =

I Ignore prices the day before, they frequently change and are often misleading.

I am only interested in horses that I believe cannot win.
I often drop a horse from the list on the day, if the race is altered in any way;

A stronger horse becomes a non runner on the day

Rain does not prevent the race, but is unfavourable to stronger horses

The jockey is changed on a stronger horse

Worst scenario = Several horses become non runners

Finally, I always stop when I have achieved even a penny over my desired target, or if any of the above affects the remaining choices, whichever comes first.

Oh and ....

This is not a recommendation, I am just sharing my own opinion, not suggesting anyone else act on it.
Click to expand...

13:30 hrs @ Lingfield - I am laying = Jack Langley - 1050

13:44 hrs @ Leicester - I am laying = Thisonesforyou - 1920

13:51 hrs @ Market Rasen - I am laying = Heart Over Head ( Only if the numbers drop below 12. Anything above that and I abort ) - ABORTED

\

14:00 hrs @ Lingfield - I am laying = Muy Muy Loco - 1200

14:05 hrs @ Puncheston - I am laying = Secret Force / Also believe Superficial is weak, but the price is currently far too high. - 1230

14:14 hrs @ Leicester - I am laying = Backfire ( Note; Hollie Doyle is riding GIRLS ALLOWED in this race. I would not be surprised to see it get placed ) + 300 ( Girls Allowed was not placed, which somehow seems fitting :)

\

14:21 hrs @ Market Rasen - I am laying = Freshers Week - 3150

14:30 hrs @ Lingfield - I am laying = Mortubo ** ODDS WILL NEED TO IMPROVE CONSIDERABLY, OTHERWISE I WILL AVOID THIS RACE **

14:35 @ Puncheston - I am laying = Derry Lad ** May switch pick closer to the time, if I am still covering at this point **

- 1050 - 1920 - 1200 - 1230 + 300 - 3150 =-8.250

Ok. I am stopping.

All this months profit has now vanished.
Something is clearly wrong with the data,

I will STOP AND REVIEW.
 
Last edited:
mate just pointing out a few things and in no way being critical here....

Rossa Ryan top jockey percentage wise at the track over the last five years

Can't be laying top jocks at the meeting at 8s or over
 
Month to date =

1st October 1050
2nd October 640
3rd October 110
4th October -3745
5th October 700
6th October 1200
7th October 25 (After one hell of a battle)
8th October 1200
9th October 1120
10th October 1200
11th October 1100
12th October 250
13th October 987
14th October -8.830

1050 + 640 + 110 -3745 + 700 + 1200 + 25 + 1200 + 1120 + 1200 + 1100 + 250 + 987 - 8830 =-2.993

Too dangerous to continue until I know why it is picking shit.
 
luckyme said:
mate just pointing out a few things and in no way being critical here....

Rossa Ryan top jockey percentage wise at the track over the last five years

Can't be laying top jocks at the meeting at 8s or over
Click to expand...
True, he is.

So is Oisin Murphy, Tom Marquand and others whose names do not immediately spring to mind.
It is hard to factor those in to a system though and they do not win every race.

You have a valid point though.
 
As for jockeys i dont think it matters the jockey is usually factored into the price.

Today's in all honesty has just been an incredibly bad day but for me thats all par for the course of being a layer.

If you are laying into a near 100% book it's always going to be difficult. As said previously you seem to have had a couple of really bad days since you've started and a lot of very good days. I'd have thought that be the norm for a layer especially how you go about it. I'm surprised you seem to think everytime you have a bad day that there is something wrong with the data or bugs as you referred to them last time surely its the same data you've been using for the prior 7 months before posting ?

Surely this is just a more normal run of the mill variation than anything wrong with your method ? Admittedly today will be on the higher end of the spectrum for bad days but then you'll of experienced higher end of the spectrum good runs too. As a punter who operates mainly on big priced selections ive endured huge losing runs and smaller periods where I haven't been able to miss.

Perhaps if you've only been doing it less than a year you just haven't seen a true reflection of the game if you got off to a very good start.
 
A couple to take on today:

1520 Wetherby Saligo Bay

Basic look here focusing on Trainer and Jockey as the main points.

Horse under NH has tried above Class 4 on 6 occasions with 1 win that was last time in a Class 2. It was running off the bottom of the weights that day and made full use of the weight it was receiving.
Doesn’t get the same weight concessions today.

Trainer record at the Course the last 5 years is 1/66. Hurdles wise that becomes 0/30.
Jockey at the Course the last 5 years is 0/49.

For whatever reason neither Trainer or Jockey appear to understand this course.

On the basic data I have to oppose.


1640 Kempton Hierarchy
Horse has an AW record of 3/24. The course record is 0/9.

All its wins have come on the tapeta and the record on today’s surface is 0/12.
This is the only right handed course it has run at so that record is also 0/9.

Trainer at the Course the last 5 years is 21/216. CD wise that becomes 3/41 and the last winner was over a year ago.
Jockey at the Course is very limited with a record of 0/1.

Now the Horse has a running style of being held up and from stall 3 that’s not really the way to go.
I don’t see the Horse having the initial speed to get to the front early so backers are reliant on the Jockey getting through the pack later on.
Given the level of experience at the Course, along with the Horses record here that seems unlikely.

It’s a difficult horse to win with at the best times never mind at a Course it doesn’t like. Opposable all day for me.
 
luckyme said:
A couple to take on today:

1520 Wetherby Saligo Bay

Basic look here focusing on Trainer and Jockey as the main points.

Horse under NH has tried above Class 4 on 6 occasions with 1 win that was last time in a Class 2. It was running off the bottom of the weights that day and made full use of the weight it was receiving.
Doesn’t get the same weight concessions today.

Trainer record at the Course the last 5 years is 1/66. Hurdles wise that becomes 0/30.
Jockey at the Course the last 5 years is 0/49.

For whatever reason neither Trainer or Jockey appear to understand this course.

On the basic data I have to oppose.


1640 Kempton Hierarchy
Horse has an AW record of 3/24. The course record is 0/9.

All its wins have come on the tapeta and the record on today’s surface is 0/12.
This is the only right handed course it has run at so that record is also 0/9.

Trainer at the Course the last 5 years is 21/216. CD wise that becomes 3/41 and the last winner was over a year ago.
Jockey at the Course is very limited with a record of 0/1.

Now the Horse has a running style of being held up and from stall 3 that’s not really the way to go.
I don’t see the Horse having the initial speed to get to the front early so backers are reliant on the Jockey getting through the pack later on.
Given the level of experience at the Course, along with the Horses record here that seems unlikely.

It’s a difficult horse to win with at the best times never mind at a Course it doesn’t like. Opposable all day for me.
Click to expand...
Thank you

I covered Saligo Bay, it took me to 1200 for the bay.

I did not post today, choosing instead to focus on the data sets not wishing to finishing the month with losses
 
Last edited:
luckyme said:
A couple to take on today:

1520 Wetherby Saligo Bay

Basic look here focusing on Trainer and Jockey as the main points.

Horse under NH has tried above Class 4 on 6 occasions with 1 win that was last time in a Class 2. It was running off the bottom of the weights that day and made full use of the weight it was receiving.
Doesn’t get the same weight concessions today.

Trainer record at the Course the last 5 years is 1/66. Hurdles wise that becomes 0/30.
Jockey at the Course the last 5 years is 0/49.

For whatever reason neither Trainer or Jockey appear to understand this course.

On the basic data I have to oppose.


1640 Kempton Hierarchy
Horse has an AW record of 3/24. The course record is 0/9.

All its wins have come on the tapeta and the record on today’s surface is 0/12.
This is the only right handed course it has run at so that record is also 0/9.

Trainer at the Course the last 5 years is 21/216. CD wise that becomes 3/41 and the last winner was over a year ago.
Jockey at the Course is very limited with a record of 0/1.

Now the Horse has a running style of being held up and from stall 3 that’s not really the way to go.
I don’t see the Horse having the initial speed to get to the front early so backers are reliant on the Jockey getting through the pack later on.
Given the level of experience at the Course, along with the Horses record here that seems unlikely.

It’s a difficult horse to win with at the best times never mind at a Course it doesn’t like. Opposable all day for me.
Click to expand...
Both delivered
 
TheHobbitsReturn said:
Month to date =

1st October 1050
2nd October 640
3rd October 110
4th October -3745
5th October 700
6th October 1200
7th October 25 (After one hell of a battle)
8th October 1200
9th October 1120
10th October 1200
11th October 1100
12th October 250
13th October 987
14th October -8.830

1050 + 640 + 110 -3745 + 700 + 1200 + 25 + 1200 + 1120 + 1200 + 1100 + 250 + 987 - 8830 =-2.993

Too dangerous to continue until I know why it is picking shit.
Click to expand...

15th October 1200
16th October 1000
17th October 600
18th October 1500
19th October 900
20th October 900
21st October 1100
22nd October 750
23rd October 900

1050 + 640 + 110 -3745 + 700 + 1200 + 25 + 1200 + 1120 + 1200 + 1100 + 250 + 987 - 8830 + 1200 + 1000 + 600 + 1500 + 900 + 900 + 1100 + 750 + 900 =5.857

I hope posting this does not bring about another reversal :(
 
TheHobbitsReturn said:
15th October 1200
16th October 1000
17th October 600
18th October 1500
19th October 900
20th October 900
21st October 1100
22nd October 750
23rd October 900

1050 + 640 + 110 -3745 + 700 + 1200 + 25 + 1200 + 1120 + 1200 + 1100 + 250 + 987 - 8830 + 1200 + 1000 + 600 + 1500 + 900 + 900 + 1100 + 750 + 900 =5.857

I hope posting this does not bring about another reversal :(
Click to expand...

24th October 900
25th October 900
26th October 900
27th October 900
28th October - 1160

1050 + 640 + 110 -3745 + 700 + 1200 + 25 + 1200 + 1120 + 1200 + 1100 + 250 + 987 - 8830 + 1200 + 1000 + 600 + 1500 + 900 + 900 + 1100 + 750 + 900 + 900 + 900 + 900 + 900 - 1160 = 8.297

Avoided the Aussie races until yesterday, then got a nasty kick!
 
TheHobbitsReturn said:
24th October 900
25th October 900
26th October 900
27th October 900
28th October - 1160

1050 + 640 + 110 -3745 + 700 + 1200 + 25 + 1200 + 1120 + 1200 + 1100 + 250 + 987 - 8830 + 1200 + 1000 + 600 + 1500 + 900 + 900 + 1100 + 750 + 900 + 900 + 900 + 900 + 900 - 1160 = 8.297

Avoided the Aussie races until yesterday, then got a nasty kick!
Click to expand...

29th October
30th October
31st October

1050 + 640 + 110 -3745 + 700 + 1200 + 25 + 1200 + 1120 + 1200 + 1100 + 250 + 987 - 8830 + 1200 + 1000 + 600 + 1500 + 900 + 900 + 1100 + 750 + 900 + 900 + 900 + 900 + 900 - 1160 + 1050 + 31 + 1646 =11.024

That was a challenging month.
 
So, I will try this again.
However, if these fail I will not keep posting should I decide to continue.
Posting consumes too much time - time I should be using to focus on analysis.

If they fail, I may continue, or I may stop for the day.

Races on Friday 7th November 2025

11:55 hrs @ Hexham - I am laying = Uptown Harry

13:00 hrs @ Hexham - I am laying = Raffles Wonder

13:15 hrs @ Exeter - I am laying = Hard Dealt

And if I still believe in it or have to drop one of the above due to any of the conditions mentioned below then =

13:25 hrs @ Fontwell - I am laying = Sanitiser

Caveats =

I Ignore prices the day before, they frequently change and are often misleading.

I am only interested in horses that I believe cannot win.
I often drop a horse from the list on the day, if the race is altered in any way;

A stronger horse becomes a non runner on the day

Rain does not prevent the race, but is unfavourable to stronger horses

The jockey is changed on a stronger horse

Worst scenario = Several horses become non runners

Finally, I always stop when I have achieved even a penny over my desired target, or if any of the above affects the remaining choices, whichever comes first.

Oh and ....

This is not a recommendation, I am just sharing my own opinion, not suggesting anyone else act on it.
 
November so far

1st November 1050
2nd November 216
3rd November 1140
4th November 1180
5th November 997
6th November 875

1050 + 216 + 1140 + 1180 + 997 + 875 = 5.458

I really hope posting this does not "Jinx" me !!!
 
TheHobbitsReturn said:
So, I will try this again.
However, if these fail I will not keep posting should I decide to continue.
Posting consumes too much time - time I should be using to focus on analysis.

If they fail, I may continue, or I may stop for the day.

Races on Friday 7th November 2025

11:55 hrs @ Hexham - I am laying = Uptown Harry + 300

13:00 hrs @ Hexham - I am laying = Raffles Wonder + 300

13:15 hrs @ Exeter - I am laying = Hard Dealt + 300

And if I still believe in it or have to drop one of the above due to any of the conditions mentioned below then =

13:25 hrs @ Fontwell - I am laying = Sanitiser + 300 nominal as I had already stopped.

Caveats =

I Ignore prices the day before, they frequently change and are often misleading.

I am only interested in horses that I believe cannot win.
I often drop a horse from the list on the day, if the race is altered in any way;

A stronger horse becomes a non runner on the day

Rain does not prevent the race, but is unfavourable to stronger horses

The jockey is changed on a stronger horse

Worst scenario = Several horses become non runners

Finally, I always stop when I have achieved even a penny over my desired target, or if any of the above affects the remaining choices, whichever comes first.

Oh and ....

This is not a recommendation, I am just sharing my own opinion, not suggesting anyone else act on it.
Click to expand...

300 + 300 + 300 = 900

I am done for the day.
Have fun one and all.
 
Day off

Went to a Cemetery today.
Long story

Short version

I read a gravestone that made me laugh so much I struggled to stand

I had to share this

Ready?

Here lays Teodor Christianopolis
Father, Husband, Gambler, C**t

It was written in Greek, but it made me laugh so much I could barely stand up.
 
Last edited:
TheHobbitsReturn said:
November so far

1st November 1050
2nd November 216
3rd November 1140
4th November 1180
5th November 997
6th November 875

1050 + 216 + 1140 + 1180 + 997 + 875 = 5.458

I really hope posting this does not "Jinx" me !!!
Click to expand...

7th November 900
8th November = Day Off
9th November -2,570

1050 + 216 + 1140 + 1180 + 997 + 875 + 900 - 2570 =3,788
 

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