Ante-Post - Flat 2017

Marble said:
Don't forget the horse that was sixth this day, trained by David Barron, called Twin Appeal has been entered up for a race on Friday night and Saturday afternoon at York and Newcastle. This is the strongest tracker in my tracker list. I'll be hammering him in with a cricket bat and a 12 inch nail when and wherever he runs. :)
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Twin Appeal declared 2:05 York.. Saturday, will check out the opposition and the race later.
 
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Euronymous said:
With a mixed weather forecast I think it's worth having a go at taking Highland Reel on next Saturday. Enable I doubt runs, Idaho is too tight and Ulysees confuses me a bit. I could dismiss him as a 10f animal but he should relish 12f on pedigree - on balance his poorish run in the POW relative to his Eclipse win is enough to put me off and so I've taken a flyer on Jack Hobbs. He was a lot poorer than Stoute's horse in June but 10f on quick ground is far from his optimum. A bit of cut over 12f is what he needs and he has two high class efforts over the last year or so to suggest he is good enough if back to his best. I don't really bother with Dubai form so I'm sort of hanging my hat on his excellent effort in the Champion Stakes last October where he stayed on really well from a poor position behind Almanzor and Found. 13/2 is fair and the race will cut up.
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with enable lining up highland reel now looks a solid e/w play at the price. can't have him out of the frame. hopefully see 5s with 365 tomorrow morning given their e/w terms.
 
Marble said:
Twin Appeal declared 2:05 York.. Saturday, will check out the opposition and the race later.
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10/1 or thereabouts is a nice price. I see this horse as a winner. 10's is almost an each way bet.
 
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Euronymous said:
I've taken a flyer on Jack Hobbs. He was a lot poorer than Stoute's horse in June but 10f on quick ground is far from his optimum. A bit of cut over 12f is what he needs and he has two high class efforts over the last year or so to suggest he is good enough if back to his best.
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I'd ignore his POW run altogether. The Hardwicke was always his Royal Ascot target, and he only ran in the shorter race when they knew the ground for the whole meeting would be against him. Held up, off a none too generous pace, that fast gound 10f was never going to be his bag, and he swerved the Eclipse for similar reasons.
Showed what he can do over 12f with cut when dotting up at Meydan, and the filly really has to be something special to beat him.
 
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She is/was. Ulysees ran a cracker though and is 25s in a place for the Arc. Not going in though as I think Stoutey might have the Breeders Cup more in mind as his target.
 
Was there today, stellar performance in tough conditions and there was a big crowd there to witness it. Ulysses would have been a good winner in another year but he met one right out of the top drawer.
 
Desert Orchid said:
In the big mile hcap at Goodwood I've stuck with Master The World (20/1). He was just denied by the good thing Franklin D last year despite having little luck in running and looks a year-long plot, showing his best form of the season the other day.
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Get fvcking in there!
 
Nice one Maurice.
Marble said:
Twin Appeal declared 2:05 York.. Saturday, will check out the opposition and the race later.
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Twin Appeal runs over the mile (which he wants I think) tomorrow at Thirsk in 4:00.
 
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I've been snaffling anything over 5.5 about Ulysees on the machine for the Juddmonte. The extended mile and a quarter should really suit him and he's become overs since Churchill was confirmed for the race. I fear Barney Roy and will find some sort of protection with him but can't have the Guineas winner over this sort of test.

More long range I found Fabre's comments about Al Wukair pre race quite interesting yesterday. He basically said he needs 10f now but the soft ground would mean the Marois would be ok. If you watch the race back he didn't travel as well as Thunder Snow but found loads and yeah, it looks like 10 will be his optimum. With that in mind 16s for the Champion Stakes (Ascot version) seems generous.
 
I have no idea about running intentions or likely going or whatever but I've taken two ante-post bets at nice prices for the Ebor (to half-stakes).

US Army Ranger (25/1) - AOB only has two in the top 40 in the weights at this stage and the second of them is 40th so might not get in. US Army Ranger started the season on 119 having been 120 for the Derby on my ratings (121 officially) last season. He's been arguably in decline since then. He couldn't land the odds in a G3 (10f) a couple of runs later and couldn't get close in the Champion Stakes at Ascot. He's been basically disappointing this season for a Derby runner-up but this is G1 prize money and I wouldn't be surprised if his campaign this season has been all about getting him down to a mark off which he can win this. Now down to 110, a return to his Derby form would make him a very serious contender.

King Bolete (25/1) - Roger Varian has a very strong hand with Mount Logan, Battersea and this fellow. Mount Logan is 4lbs lower than his peak rating of last season and will be 4lbs well in as he's been raised to his old mark for his very good second to Frankuus at Haydock last weekend. On that form he's entitled to be thereabouts. Battersea remains lightly raced for his age and was plotted up for this last season and he was beaten only a length and a half for second in a very hot race behind the runaway winner. He's 2lbs lower this time so should run another big race. However, not only do I have King Bolete better in at the weights than either of these two, it's possible he's on a steep curve. He went up 14lbs in two runs last season and I wonder if the plan was hatched then for now. He disappointed on his penultimate run before acting as pacemaker for Postponed in the big race here. A couple of disappointments this season saw his mark drop to 99 which might not have guaranteed his getting in to this race so he came out and beat What About Carlo who subsequently beat several higher-rated rivals in a Listed race at Newbury and the third, Great Hall, was a tidy winner at the Shergar Cup meeting last week. What About Carlo is now 8lbs higher; Great Hall is now 3lbs higher so King Bolete might, by tenuous extrapolation, be about 6lbs well in. I'm prepared to pay to find out.

I'll almost certainly bet one or two others in the race on the day, or maybe just top up on these two but right now I like them.
 
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I'm still not convinced anything below Shrewd will make the cut come the day and O'Brien's runner alongside Shrewd in the weights has come out at the five-day stage. The two bets are still in but enthusiasm for King Bolete is tempered by the news that Atzeni says he's riding Battersea.
 
I’m going to try Spanish Steps each-way (Gt Voltigeur) today as he might just be on a very steep curve now. His RPRs have gone from 75 to 108 in five runs, improving 9lbs, 12lbs, 5lbs and 7lbs with each outing. Another 7lbs’ improvement will give him every chance of being second at worst.

I’ve also stuck a half-point each-way on him for the St Leger at 40/1 just in case he runs very well here. If the worst comes to the worst he can end up emulating his namesake of the late sixties and early seventies and go for the Hennessy a few years down the line!
 
Desert Orchid said:
I have no idea about running intentions or likely going or whatever but I've taken two ante-post bets at nice prices for the Ebor (to half-stakes).

US Army Ranger (25/1) - AOB only has two in the top 40 in the weights at this stage and the second of them is 40th so might not get in. US Army Ranger started the season on 119 having been 120 for the Derby on my ratings (121 officially) last season. He's been arguably in decline since then. He couldn't land the odds in a G3 (10f) a couple of runs later and couldn't get close in the Champion Stakes at Ascot. He's been basically disappointing this season for a Derby runner-up but this is G1 prize money and I wouldn't be surprised if his campaign this season has been all about getting him down to a mark off which he can win this. Now down to 110, a return to his Derby form would make him a very serious contender.

King Bolete (25/1) - Roger Varian has a very strong hand with Mount Logan, Battersea and this fellow. Mount Logan is 4lbs lower than his peak rating of last season and will be 4lbs well in as he's been raised to his old mark for his very good second to Frankuus at Haydock last weekend. On that form he's entitled to be thereabouts. Battersea remains lightly raced for his age and was plotted up for this last season and he was beaten only a length and a half for second in a very hot race behind the runaway winner. He's 2lbs lower this time so should run another big race. However, not only do I have King Bolete better in at the weights than either of these two, it's possible he's on a steep curve. He went up 14lbs in two runs last season and I wonder if the plan was hatched then for now. He disappointed on his penultimate run before acting as pacemaker for Postponed in the big race here. A couple of disappointments this season saw his mark drop to 99 which might not have guaranteed his getting in to this race so he came out and beat What About Carlo who subsequently beat several higher-rated rivals in a Listed race at Newbury and the third, Great Hall, was a tidy winner at the Shergar Cup meeting last week. What About Carlo is now 8lbs higher; Great Hall is now 3lbs higher so King Bolete might, by tenuous extrapolation, be about 6lbs well in. I'm prepared to pay to find out.

I'll almost certainly bet one or two others in the race on the day, or maybe just top up on these two but right now I like them.
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I've got an eye on Carntop. I think he's been plotted for something. He stayed on quite well last time, it looked like a stronger pace will be right up his street. Of course he'll need to have improved and trained on since then, but you never know.
 
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Euronymous said:
I've been snaffling anything over 5.5 about Ulysees on the machine for the Juddmonte. The extended mile and a quarter should really suit him and he's become overs since Churchill was confirmed for the race. I fear Barney Roy and will find some sort of protection with him but can't have the Guineas winner over this sort of test.

More long range I found Fabre's comments about Al Wukair pre race quite interesting yesterday. He basically said he needs 10f now but the soft ground would mean the Marois would be ok. If you watch the race back he didn't travel as well as Thunder Snow but found loads and yeah, it looks like 10 will be his optimum. With that in mind 16s for the Champion Stakes (Ascot version) seems generous.
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Very well done,impressive by you and the horse.
 
If the betting list at oddschecker right now is anything to go by, neither US Army Ranger nor King Bolete runs on Saturday. :(
 
See you all in October!

Arch Villain is my Ceserewitch, anti-post horse.
He ran an excellent trial yesterday, when finishing fourth at 50/1.
He also gave weight and a beating to Sea Of Heaven last season at Ascot, who finished third in Sweet Selections Ceserewitch. Arch Villain has plenty of good form in the book, with a clear preference for going right-handed. I'll be chipping away at the price, from now until early October. I'll need things to go right, the main thing is that he gets there on the day, but assuming he does, I'm confident enough.
 
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Aljazzi's win in the Atalanta a stonking form boost for Qemah who is well overs at 7s for the Matron. She would have beaten Roly Poly at Deauville with a better ride
 
Also taken 8s about The Tin Man for Haydock last week. Poor at Newmarket I'm gonna forgive him that run. His rep as an Ascot horse is bogus as he would have been within a length of QR in this last year but for being tardy out the gate. I'm hoping for some rain to slow Harry Angel down.
 
I'm wondering what day they run the Bronze Cup at Ayr, is it the Thursday, Friday or Saturday? Obviously to run in it you must not make the cut for both Gold and Silver Cups. Im guessing it's run on the Saturday. Anyways, I'm hoping, borderline preying Stanghow will run that weekend. As honest a lower grade sprint handicapper out there as you'll find. I reckon I'll get an excellent run for my money with Stanghow. I haven't had a penny on Arch Villain for The Ceserewitch yet. I may divert some funds for Stanghow, especially if he gets declared for This Bronze Cup in under a fortnight. Fingers crossed.
 
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Yeah it is. I've just done some research as well. Stanghow is ranked 138 in the list for the Ayr Gold Cup. That makes me think he has no chance of running in any of these Cups, but after looking at previous renewals, he would definitely get in The Bronze, probably carry top weight there, but he may actually sneak in off a light weight in The Silver Cup, so it could be either. Oh its so exciting this isn't it - waiting for a horse you actually rate to run in a nice handicap!
 
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