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Ante Post jumps discussion thread 2025/26

T

The Fortune Teller

Journeyman
Joined
Mar 8, 2016
Messages
8,758
I think we need one of these threads.
I saw Danny mentioned another race at Cheltenham this weekend, and there's forum members on here, (I'm not one 🤣), who've really shown their worth over time for identifying horses before raceday.

While the biggest races will have individual threads, there'll be one or two races that might not, and if someone really wants to mention a horse well in advance, then this is the thread.

A horse who caught my eye during a race at the end of last season who I immediately identified as being on an upward curve was Ballybreeze, who is entered in the 2.20 at Cheltenham on Sunday.

He beat Teddy Blue, albeit receiving plenty of weight, but still won as he liked, and Teddy Blue franked the form in a serious way just over a week ago in a valuable 50K + handicap at Ascot.

Ballybreeze actually won off a mark of just 108 that day, then won again, showing his battling qualities next time out in a tight finish, where they pulled miles clear of the third horse, so he is now rated on a mark of 116 for Sunday.

I reckon he remains attractively handicapped to win more races this season, and trainer Samuel Drinkwater can get more improvement out of him.

He's quoted by several firms at 6/1 or thereabouts. I'm not diving in yet by any means, as I don't know the final field, but I'm mentioning Ballybreeze as a horse who should hold a great chance on Sunday, if he runs anyway.
 
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Had a look at the weekend cards at Cheltenham and the race that stood out to me from a betting angle was the 3m3f handicap chase on the Sunday where the two at the front of the market look questionable stayers in Protektorat and Marble Sands and I thought Rock My Way was backable at 10s in a place (365). The NHC form is excellent and like a lot of Tizzards he probably needed his opening run of the season over too shorter a trip at the track on showcase weekend.
 
3/1 is a lousy price ante-post but, if we're having a butchers at the supporting races, Hallelujah U interests me in the first of several imaginatively (not) titled "Triumph Hurdle Trials" they have there.

This beast has some back story - he's a FOURTEENTH foal, and a half brother to ELEVEN winners.

His pedigree at first glance doesn't exactly scream progressive stamina (he's by Pinatubo and the dam only won as a 2yo), but he's shown plenty.

Winner at 1m on Tapeta at Southwell as a 2yo, he won a 1m4f handicap off 73 at Thirsk before they crucified his mark by running him in the Queen's Vase at Royal Ascot.

He ran a stormer, finishing two-and-quarter lengths sixth and was less than a length behind St Leger winner Scandinavia.

He got hiked to OR 102 for that and had two hopes - Bob Hope and no hope - of winning after that but he was actually only beaten six lengths off 101 when last sighted.

The yard won this with East India Dock last year and this beast arguably has the better 3yo Flat form.

I know they've booked Sean Bowen for one of their other two entries but Sam Twiston-Davies is the sort of reliable maniac who won't stop riding until the clerk of the scales tells him he's weighed in, so no worries there.
 
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Ian_Davies said:
Just a word of warning - if anyone puts up a Cheltenham Festival ante-post bet here, Slim is liable to hunt you down.

And I'm liable to provide him with an alibi.
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Neither of you fool me surely you're already on Mydaddypaddy for the 2028 Gold Cup ?
 
I think Owen has entered Derby runner up Ambiente Friendly in the opener at Cheltenham on Sunday. 7/2. Personally I'll be very surprised if he takes to this much tougher game.
 
Ian_Davies said:
3/1 is a lousy price ante-post but, if we're having a butchers at the supporting races, Hallelujah U interests me in the first of several imaginatively (not) titled "Triumph Hurdle Trials" they have there.

This beast has some back story - he's a FOURTEENTH foal, and a half brother to ELEVEN winners.

His pedigree at first glance doesn't exactly scream progressive stamina (he's by Pinatubo and the dam only won as a 2yo), but he's shown plenty.

Winner at 1m on Tapeta at Southwell as a 2yo, he won a 1m4f handicap off 73 at Thirsk before they crucified his mark by running him in the Queen's Vase at Royal Ascot.

He ran a stormer, finishing two-and-quarter lengths sixth and was less than a length behind St Leger winner Scandinavia.

He got hiked to OR 102 for that and had two hopes - Bob Hope and no hope - of winning after that but he was actually only beaten six lengths off 101 when last sighted.

The yard won this with East India Dock last year and this beast arguably has the better 3yo Flat form.

I know they've booked Sean Bowen for one of their other two entries but Sam Twiston-Davies is the sort of reliable maniac who won't stop riding until the clerk of the scales tells him he's weighed in, so no worries there.
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Glad to see you've finally come around to one of my suggestions on this forum Ian.

On the 17th May I wrote:
James Owen who did me a favour yesterday with Delicacy sends the one runner to Thirsk today:
HALLELUJAH U
in the 1m 4f handicap 3:20

On its last start a running on 4th but only 3 lengths behind Merchant who was an easy winner at York on Thursday.
Dropped a pound should appreciate the extra two furlongs but unfortunately 3/1 best odds.

It's took a while but you got there in the end!!!!
 
Looking at the other Saturday races with ante-post markets, Tom Lacey's pair, Lucky Manifest and Marlacoo, would be fair (especially if the weights rise) at double-digit odds if you knew they were running, and in the following contest the stand-out 8/1 with William Hill Kap Boy could be looking alright come Saturday if he turns up.
 
Oh, and 33/1 As Legends Have It same race would be cracking but for the fact he holds engagements in two other races on Friday.
 
Ian_Davies said:
Looking at the other Saturday races with ante-post markets, Tom Lacey's pair, Lucky Manifest and Marlacoo, would be fair (especially if the weights rise) at double-digit odds if you knew they were running, and in the following contest the stand-out 8/1 with William Hill Kap Boy could be looking alright come Saturday if he turns up.
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Lucky Manifest and Marlacoo both declared for Friday's opener.

Very deep ground would be my only concern in terms of them both getting in the extended places.
 
The Fortune Teller said:
I think we need one of these threads.
I saw Danny mentioned another race at Cheltenham this weekend, and there's forum members on here, (I'm not one 🤣), who've really shown their worth over time for identifying horses before raceday.

While the biggest races will have individual threads, there'll be one or two races that might not, and if someone really wants to mention a horse well in advance, then this is the thread.

A horse who caught my eye during a race at the end of last season who I immediately identified as being on an upward curve was Ballybreeze, who is entered in the 2.20 at Cheltenham on Sunday.

He beat Teddy Blue, albeit receiving plenty of weight, but still won as he liked, and Teddy Blue franked the form in a serious way just over a week ago in a valuable 50K + handicap at Ascot.

Ballybreeze actually won off a mark of just 108 that day, then won again, showing his battling qualities next time out in a tight finish, where they pulled miles clear of the third horse, so he is now rated on a mark of 116 for Sunday.

I reckon he remains attractively handicapped to win more races this season, and trainer Samuel Drinkwater can get more improvement out of him.

He's quoted by several firms at 6/1 or thereabouts. I'm not diving in yet by any means, as I don't know the final field, but I'm mentioning Ballybreeze as a horse who should hold a great chance on Sunday, if he runs anyway.
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Ballybreeze declared for Sunday.

I'm hoping he will do the business.

One of my old trackers the Dr TJ Eckleburg has also been declared in this race and might appreciate the ground, but Ballybreeze for me, all day long.
 
On the evening of the Irish Grand National I took 33/1 Quai De Bourbon for this season's Grand National.

After that I never saw mentions of it and wondered if it was out for the season but I see it's out under top weight in the Troytown with Townend up.

Quai De Bourbon was a very decent third at Fairyhouse and I can understand anyone arguing that he appeared to finish weakly on the day but he actually lost at least twenty lengths on the way round with some erratic jumping and it was sheer class that got him into a challenging position at the last.

Currently off 151, they might not actually be targeting Aintree - maybe they don't think he jumps well enough - but I reckon he's good enough to win a Troytown - in which he is the yard's only runner - off top weight even if 4/1 doesn't appeal right now.

Still, just in case, I've gone in again for Aintree at 25/1 and 100/1 for the Gold Cup.
 
Robicheaux said:
Resigned to soft ( ish ) ground. Walkadina at 8s is my only bet Friday.
Opening race.
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"The weather was atrocious on Friday at home and at Cheltenham but Walkadina ran well enough in the conditional jockey’s handicap hurdle. Rian Corcoran gave her a good ride and produced her to challenge after the second last but she didn’t quite see out the 2m5f trip up the hill which she was trying for the first time and she finished fifth. We will drop back in distance next time." ( from David Pipe's website).
I watched the race and Walkadina travelled really well on the turn into the home straight. Thanksforthehelp is another one who may drop down in distance next time.
 
Really good card at Newbury this coming Friday and I'm sort of gagging to get involved but not sure of running plans:

John Francome Novice Chase - We have Regents Stroll heading the market for this with Wendigo second choice. I want to oppose any Pumpkin horse at short odds these days and surely Wendigo is too boaty for the 2m4 trip - my choice would be Steel Ally who was impressive at Carlisle but he's drifting a tad and no jockey is booked. I also like Leave of Absence but he might need decent ground. Can forgive him his Cheltenham run.

I've backed Scarface in the handicap chase over the same trip as the JF. He ran well enough behind Gustavian last time out but he's not a three miler. Twinjets heads the market but the race he won lto fell apart (Etalon was second, tells you all you need to know.) I don't mind the top weight as potential back up, Telepathique needs to go left handed but not sure she's that well handicapped and she's too short at present.

Long Distance Hurdle:
No idea what's happening here. JP has Honesty Policy and Impose Toi and Henderson also has the latter and Doddiethegreat. I'm gagging to back IT but I have no idea what's lining up for this Strong Leader excepted.
 
In that Long distance hurdle I've taken a chance on Ahoy senor at 28/1 ( 25's still available) He might be finished as a racehorse but thats a chance Im willing to take. He was 2 from 2 over hurdles before going chasing and Grd1 novice winner at Aintree a course where he's shown his best down the years similar style track to Newbury. Even his ever declining chase mark is still higher than any of these are rated and he's getting weight from a few of them. If he gets going and starts enjoying himself then he might run them all ragged. The other side of the coin is he sulks and pulls up. But at the price thats a chance I'd be prepared to take.

And id just say that aside Id agree with Euro on Impose toi as a decent bet in the race too if thats the one they go with.
 
Dont want to start a new thread. @Slim Paddys have you 66/1 to be next Upping The Ante co host. Give a nod this way so we can have the lot on.

Personally make you 1000/1, you’d be great, not sure they’d like your controversy though 🤣
 

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