Ante Post jumps discussion thread 2025/26

[Slim]

Dont want to start a new thread. @Slim Paddys have you 66/1 to be next Upping The Ante co host. Give a nod this way so we can have the lot on.

Personally make you 1000/1, you’d be great, not sure they’d like your controversy though

I'm even money. Have the absolute lot on.

 

[Ian_Davies]

If Slim got the gig, I'd watch it for the first time (nap).

 

[Slim]

If Slim got the gig, I'd watch it for the first time (nap).

When*

 

[Double J]

I'm even money. Have the absolute lot on.

Cant wait for the Upping The Ante special episode at Ditcheat when you refer to Paul Nicholls as Fat Man.

‘So Fat Man, where’s the next Denman?’

 

[Slim]

Cant wait for the Upping The Ante special episode at Ditcheat when you refer to Paul Nicholls as Fat Man.

‘So Fat Man, where’s the next Denman?’

I wouldn't degrade myself my doing shit like that. Betting is a game that the man in a bar with a newspaper should be able to solve.

 

[Danny]

Well played Euro taking you bet it before the price went insanely short.

 

[Euronymous]

I did but fairly small, was very concerned he wouldn't run.

 

[Danny]

Despite being on the end of a proper good hiding yesterday perhaps I'm a glutton for punishment but i still looking for ways to turn it around.

Looking ahead to the Ladbrokes handicap hurdle on the 20th of December i think the price disparity between Alexi favourite for this and Wilful is beyond comprehension. Wilful available at a top price of 9/1 with 365 is going to be 19lbs better off for a length or so in the Welsh Champion hurdle. I've no doubt Alexi is improving but 19lb makes a big difference. Wilful travelled probably best of all in that race and tired late on but it was his first run of the campaign and he's entitled to have come on for the run himself. I also think Ascot is perfect for his prominent strong travelling style. It's his only entry at this time and I think he's a cracking bet.

 

[Euronymous]

Despite being on the end of a proper good hiding yesterday perhaps I'm a glutton for punishment but i still looking for ways to turn it around.

Always looking for the next ante-post after a bad day. I've gone for the same card but the handicap chase over 3m and Blow Your Wad appeals. He finished his race really well behind The Changing Man and Henry's Friend over course and distance last month and I note that the latter is entered at Cheltenham next week so hopefully he'll take up that engagement. ByW is entitled to come on a ton for that race.

 

[Danny]

Speak of the devil and he shall appear. Skelton has said in the main media today that Panic attacks main aim will be the National as I'd suggested was the only logical move. I've topped up an already tusky bet with a bit more at the 33's still generally available. It's rare I'd have an antepost stab at this race and never from this far out but I see this as an absolute must bet.

 

[Robicheaux]

Despite being on the end of a proper good hiding yesterday perhaps I'm a glutton for punishment but i still looking for ways to turn it around.

Looking ahead to the Ladbrokes handicap hurdle on the 20th of December i think the price disparity between Alexi favourite for this and Wilful is beyond comprehension. Wilful available at a top price of 9/1 with 365 is going to be 19lbs better off for a length or so in the Welsh Champion hurdle. I've no doubt Alexi is improving but 19lb makes a big difference. Wilful travelled probably best of all in that race and tired late on but it was his first run of the campaign and he's entitled to have come on for the run himself. I also think Ascot is perfect for his prominent strong travelling style. It's his only entry at this time and I think he's a cracking bet.

I'm of the opinion that Jonjos team, may be about to turn the corner, so you might be on to something there. However the bookies have seem to have cottoned on to it.
Got my eye on stablemate Wreckless Eric, here. Though a repeat attempt at the Imperial Cup, may be his target

 

[Danny]

I'm of the opinion that Jonjos team, may be about to turn the corner, so you might be on to something there. However the bookies have seem to have cottoned on to it.
Got my eye on stablemate Wreckless Eric, here. Though a repeat attempt at the Imperial Cup, may be his target

It's not so much they cottoned onto it it shortened after the Alexi team have said they are considering going to the Christmas hurdle at Kempton instead and Alexi was fairly short for it so they've adjusted the market accordingly.

 

[Outsider]

I'm of the opinion that Jonjos team, may be about to turn the corner, so you might be on to something there. However the bookies have seem to have cottoned on to it.
Got my eye on stablemate Wreckless Eric, here. Though a repeat attempt at the Imperial Cup, may be his target

I lost my money on Wreckless Eric last time when it didn't run so I'm waiting.
I looked on the Bha ratings site and W.E doesn't have an OR strangely.
Should be 129/130 I think.

 

[jinnyj]

I'm of the opinion that Jonjos team, may be about to turn the corner, so you might be on to something there. However the bookies have seem to have cottoned on to it.
Got my eye on stablemate Wreckless Eric, here. Though a repeat attempt at the Imperial Cup, may be his target

Jonjo's team are always about to turn the corner, which they do..and then they veer off to the right, and then left and then plough straight through the wide blue yonder as they are so effing confused as to whether they are on or off on any one day.

 

[Euronymous]

Really good card at Ascot on Sat and obviously the big races all have their own threads but the Howden Graduation Chase has been priced up by Sky/Powers and what a strange market:
Firefox 15/8
Iroko 5/2
James du Berlais 3/1
Blueking D 4/1
Leave of Absence 10/1
Jeriiko Du R 12/1
Issam 16/1

First thing that strikes me is will any of the Irish turn up? If we set them aside we have Iroko who fell here last season and Blueking who is an awful jumper. Leave of Absence was second in the Reynoldtown and is also in the big handicap but Honeyball (who I do like) hasn't booked a jockey for that entry but Rex the Dingle is down for this. I make him a tentative bet at 10s.

 

[The Fortune Teller]

Really good card at Ascot on Sat and obviously the big races all have their own threads but the Howden Graduation Chase has been priced up by Sky/Powers and what a strange market:
Firefox 15/8
Iroko 5/2
James du Berlais 3/1
Blueking D 4/1
Leave of Absence 10/1
Jeriiko Du R 12/1
Issam 16/1

First thing that strikes me is will any of the Irish turn up? If we set them aside we have Iroko who fell here last season and Blueking who is an awful jumper. Leave of Absence was second in the Reynoldtown and is also in the big handicap but Honeyball (who I do like) hasn't booked a jockey for that entry but Rex the Dingle is down for this. I make him a tentative bet at 10s.

I like this angle on Leave Of Absense.

I see trainer Christian Wiliams has Jack Tudor booked for Deep Cave in this race, but he's double the price at the moment for this than the Silver Cup, which seems a bit odd, given no jockey is booked there yet. Let's see where he turns up.

 

[Generous1991]

I like this angle on Leave Of Absense.

I see trainer Christian Wiliams has Jack Tudor booked for Deep Cave in this race, but he's double the price at the moment for this than the Silver Cup, which seems a bit odd, given no jockey is booked there yet. Let's see where he turns up.

Surely because, if he does run in the graduation chase, he'll be wrong at the weights compared to the handicap.

I'd like to know the plan for another one entered in both. I think Knappers Hill is an interesting outsider in whichever race he runs. I assume he's running in the graduation chase, because Harry Cobden's named for him in that, and is on Threeunderthrufive in the handicap. I'd actually rather have a go at the handicap because he's well weighted on his old form and I think he'll stay 3 miles. But I don't mind 25s for the graduation chase.

 

[The Fortune Teller]

That's a good point, but he wouldn't be the first trainer to run one in a non-handicap where his horse was wrong at the weights, and he certainly won't be the last. Just look at Kihavah in the 2024 Fighting Fifth Hurdle! The market for Saturday has corrected itself a bit today I see.

Edit - Jack Tudor now booked on Deep Cave for both races.

 

[Generous1991]

Only three declared for the graduation chase - what a dud.

 

[The Fortune Teller]

A horse who caught my eye during a race at the end of last season who I immediately identified as being on an upward curve was Ballybreeze, who is entered in the 2.20 at Cheltenham on Sunday.

He beat Teddy Blue, albeit receiving plenty of weight, but still won as he liked, and Teddy Blue franked the form in a serious way just over a week ago in a valuable 50K + handicap at Ascot.

Ballybreeze actually won off a mark of just 108 that day, then won again, showing his battling qualities next time out in a tight finish, where they pulled miles clear of the third horse, so he is now rated on a mark of 116 for Sunday.

I reckon he remains attractively handicapped to win more races this season, and trainer Samuel Drinkwater can get more improvement out of him.

He's quoted by several firms at 6/1 or thereabouts. I'm not diving in yet by any means, as I don't know the final field, but I'm mentioning Ballybreeze as a horse who should hold a great chance on Sunday, if he runs anyway.

I'm not giving up on Ballybreeze just yet.

A paddock pundit commented that he didn't look fit before his last run at Cheltenham. I'd expect a lot better performance at Chepstow on Saturday if he's declared for the 1.05.

 

[Desert Orchid]

I had a crazy bet in my mind the last time I saw it win but shied away from it.

After today I have gone in, not with any confidence at all because the ask is huge but there is something about Thistle Ask that lit a spark last time and set it ablaze today.

25/1 for the Champion Chase.

It had just gone up from 108 to 115 when Skelton got a hold of it but it had gone up to 146 going into today's race, will probably go up another 10lbs and will probably need to be another 20lbs better to have a chance.

But he is not just beating these good two-mile handicappers. He is making them look like platers.

Last time he went off stupidly fast but still had them all stone cold at halfway. Today he didn't go so daft in the first mile but just took off (I need to check the sectionals) with a mile to go and they couldn't live with him and he was being eased down going to the last.

Weight stops trains, they say, and at some point he is going to reach his ceiling but I'm not seeing where it is right now.

The Skeltons might decide the Grand Annual is his for the taking - JPR One was top weight last season off 156 - but I'd love to see them pitch this one in against the best around at two miles and am happy to pay to see how he gets on.

 

[Slim]

I had a crazy bet in my mind the last time I saw it win but shied away from it.

After today I have gone in, not with any confidence at all because the ask is huge but there is something about Thistle Ask that lit a spark last time and set it ablaze today.

25/1 for the Champion Chase.

It had just gone up from 108 to 115 when Skelton got a hold of it but it had gone up to 146 going into today's race, will probably go up another 10lbs and will probably need to be another 20lbs better to have a chance.

But he is not just beating these good two-mile handicappers. He is making them look like platers.

Last time he went off stupidly fast but still had them all stone cold at halfway. Today he didn't go so daft in the first mile but just took off (I need to check the sectionals) with a mile to go and they couldn't live with him and he was being eased down going to the last.

Weight stops trains, they say, and at some point he is going to reach his ceiling but I'm not seeing where it is right now.

The Skeltons might decide the Grand Annual is his for the taking - JPR One was top weight last season off 156 - but I'd love to see them pitch this one in against the best around at two miles and am happy to pay to see how he gets on.

Had the horse not fell then maybe. 25/1?
That's missing a zero.

 

[Slim]

I had a crazy bet in my mind the last time I saw it win but shied away from it.

After today I have gone in, not with any confidence at all because the ask is huge but there is something about Thistle Ask that lit a spark last time and set it ablaze today.

25/1 for the Champion Chase.

It had just gone up from 108 to 115 when Skelton got a hold of it but it had gone up to 146 going into today's race, will probably go up another 10lbs and will probably need to be another 20lbs better to have a chance.

But he is not just beating these good two-mile handicappers. He is making them look like platers.

Last time he went off stupidly fast but still had them all stone cold at halfway. Today he didn't go so daft in the first mile but just took off (I need to check the sectionals) with a mile to go and they couldn't live with him and he was being eased down going to the last.

Weight stops trains, they say, and at some point he is going to reach his ceiling but I'm not seeing where it is right now.

The Skeltons might decide the Grand Annual is his for the taking - JPR One was top weight last season off 156 - but I'd love to see them pitch this one in against the best around at two miles and am happy to pay to see how he gets on.

Also. He beat the same horse today. Christ like, look at the result before you spout shite.

 

[Desert Orchid]

Had the horse not fell then maybe. 25/1?
That's missing a zero.

In the big scheme of things, I get it, Slim, and I reckon I allowed for it in what I said, but is it relevant?

Say it was able to finish 10 lengths in front of SS? What would that make it? 150?

If it did and TA finished beside it, that would make TA a 161 horse. But that's not to take into account how easily TA did it.

As I said, it falls well short of CC class but it did it so easily (and so fluently) I just think it is more than a handicapper.

How much more I don't know but the two-mile division looks a wee bit weak - the most likely winner is Marine Nationale (OR 170 but I'd have it higher) - so if TA had 10lbs in hand today it might get close, or at least closer that a lot of others. And what if it's better again?

That's what I'm paying to find out.

If somebody was prepared to put another zero on the price I'd be prepared to put another zero on my stake.

 

[Double J]

In the big scheme of things, I get it, Slim, and I reckon I allowed for it in what I said, but is it relevant?

Say it was able to finish 10 lengths in front of SS? What would that make it? 150?

If it did and TA finished beside it, that would make TA a 161 horse. But that's not to take into account how easily TA did it.

As I said, it falls well short of CC class but it did it so easily (and so fluently) I just think it is more than a handicapper.

How much more I don't know but the two-mile division looks a wee bit weak - the most likely winner is Marine Nationale (OR 170 but I'd have it higher) - so if TA had 10lbs in hand today it might get close, or at least closer that a lot of others. And what if it's better again?

That's what I'm paying to find out.

If somebody was prepared to put another zero on the price I'd be prepared to put another zero on my stake.

Skeltons will run L’eau De Sud in the Champion Chase.

Thistle Ask is an absolute certainty to go to the Grand Annual. Even if they thought he had another 10 pounds in hand, he’d hack up in the Grand Annual and when ya chasing trainer titles

(Not saying he’d win a Grand Annual either, just if ya have a Champion Chase horse, you want to be exploiting his mark first)