Ante-post Money

Tanlic

Tanlic

Senior Jockey
Joined
Dec 6, 2011
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Little experiment to see which horses have attracted most money on Betfair and seeking out the best and worst value been offered on the high street

By Race no real surprise the Gold Cup comes out on top

912,174 Gold Cup
695,513 Champion Hurdle
327,200 Supreme
304,090 QMCC
293,415 World Hurdle
292,744 Arkle
166,399 RSA
154,739 Neptune
125,190 Triumph Hurdle
123,046 Ryanair
41,000 Mares


By Horse surprisingly little money has been traded for the would be banker Quevega. Clearly a lack of confidence that she'll actually turn up again.

Sprinter Sacre 248,332
Hurricane Fly 234,667
Bobsworth 194,354
Simonsig 175,555
MTOY 96,132
Dynaste 72,861
The New One* 39,425
Oscar Whiskey 38,119
Quevega 31,731
Rolling Star 25,514
Cue Card 23,391

Highest percentage of the money traded

Only The New One has attracted more business than the current race fav

Sprinter Sacre 81.66%
Quevega 77.39%
Simonsig 59.97%
Dynaste 43.79%
Hurricane Fly 33.74%
My Tent Or Yours 29.38%
The New One* 25.48%
Bobsworth 21.31%
Rolling Star 20.38%
Cue Card 19.01%
Oscar Whiskey 12.99%

Percentage chance of winning comparison according to bookmakers price
Sprinter Sacre......81.66% 2/7....71.43%.....10.24%
Quevega.............77.39% 4/6....55.56%......21.84%
Simonsig.............59.97% 8/11..57.80%.....2.17%
Dynaste.............43.79% 9/4...30.86%.....12.92%
Hurricane Fly.......33.74% 7/4...36.36%.....-2.62%
My Tent Or Yours..29.38% 13/8..38.17%.....-8.79%
The New One*.....25.48% 9/2....18.18%.....7.30%
Bobsworth...........21.31% 3/1....25.00%....-3.69%
Rolling Star..........20.38% 5/1.....20.00%......-0.38%
Cue Card,,,,,,,,,,,,19.01% 4/1....25.00%....-5.99%
Oscar Whisky......12.99% 4/1....25.00%....-12.01%

If Betfair is any reflection how people have been betting with the High Street bookies :-

Quevega, Dynaste and Sprinter Sacre look overpriced but the Henderson trio Bobsworth MTOY and Oscar Whisky look under priced along with Cue Card.

Best value bets Quevega and Dynaste

Worst Value Oscar Whisky and My Tent Or Yours
 
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I hate to be a killjoy but comparing % of money traded on a runner in a market to the bookmakers price and concluding that a selection is overpriced on that basis is completely flawed for numerous reasons.
 
SlimChance said:
I hate to be a killjoy but comparing % of money traded on a runner in a market to the bookmakers price and concluding that a selection is overpriced on that basis is completely flawed for numerous reasons.
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thats true..the weight of money on Betfair is usually loaded towards the front horses

the first race at Naas demonstrates it ..as would most races..the fav there Upsie has 87% of money traded at the moment but is 1.8..the second fav has just 5% but trades at 6.0

the way to judge it would be to work out a Betfair % price relation to traditional % prices..if that is possible
 
In theory the Betfair market is as close to the 100% line thst we have on the outcome of a horse race and statistical anaylsis has proved this (Gamla Stan posted a link to this during the year). However they're always going to be amnomolies in the market. You'll have firms hedging liabilities of running up multiples or off setting the liabilities of mug money both of which can cause the market to imply a greater % chance of a certain horse winning than would normally be the case. Also some connections money due to the size of their bets causes their selection to shorten further than other stables/owners fancied runners. A good example of that would be the 4.25 in Kempton yesterday. As EC1 says because Betfair is so focused on the front end of the market these selections are most likely to be overbet causing a higher implied chance of winning albeit very marginally.

The Betfair market near the off is almost impossible to beat paying 5% commission in the long run but obviously on a race by race basis there will be instances of anomalies in the market and these can be taken advantage of both on Betfair and with the fixed odds firms.
 
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I know very little about forming markets Slim and I understand what EC means when you look at the Naas race but the Ante-post Betfair market is a bit different to a race running NOW.

Most of the money comes in dribs and drabs as you simply don't have enough money around at any given time to start having 2 or 3K on in one lump.

For instance I have backed Grandouet 34 times to get on what I wanted on . I averaged 11.26 but if I had put the full amount on in one go he's have gone odds on.

Because it's thousands of small bets I doubt if there are many bookies who bother with it as they can lay of bets elsewhere in one lump if need be.

I certainly think if they were standing in front of the tapes Quevega wouldn't be 4/6 and if they all line up you'll get much bigger on the day on Oscar Whisky.

I'm surprised Hurricane Fly didn't show up as under priced but the rest are pretty much as I expected. Right now if I had to put 3k on him he'd be 1/10 to win the race and he's one of the highest traded horses around.
 
I would have calculated your bookie percentages differently, Tanlic, which would bring them closer to the weight of money on Betfair, so close in fact that the correlation is very clear. I would have said, for example, that 4/1 represents a one in five chance, 20%, rather than a 25% chance of winning, and that 4/6 represents a 60% chance?
 
I got 98/100 for algebra at school I'm a mathematical genius of the highest standing I can work out constipation with a pencil and you are saying I'm wrong..........I agree your probably right but it helped past the time until the bars opened :lol:
 
Gee thanks. :blink:

My point is that a one in four chance, 25%, is equivalent to odds of 3/1, not 4/1 as you seem to think.
 
Tanlic said:
For future reference Grey here's how to calculate odds V percentages

http://www.ehow.com/how_8344345_convert-odds-percentages-using-calculator.html
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Caveat emptor - this guide does not explain how to work out the "odds" from betting odds.

i.e. a 4/1 shot does not have a 1 in 4 chance of winning, it has a 1 in 5 chance of winning (or a 4 in 5 chance of losing)

I always use the left hand side divided by the sum of both sides - so evens would be 1/(1+1) = 50% and 4/1 would be 1/(1+4) = 20%.
 
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