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I'm indebted to a seldom [these days] seen forumite for highlighting one for the Welsh National and the reasoning is entirely sound.

We'll know more tomorrow but the chances are Secret Reprieve will go up 12lbs or thereabouts for his win at the weekend and I was too late for the 10/1 that was on offer. I've taken 7/1 this evening and I fully agree with my my co-forumite that this will go off around the 9/4 mark. I mentioned elsewhere that Native River probably will be taken out and Secret Reprieve will only have a 4lbs penalty so will be around 8lbs well in - that's 16 lengths in soft ground at the trip, which is a huge advantage - and will almost certainly make the cut.

I'm not given to over-excitement about ante-post bets because I know the pitfalls but, as I've mentioned before, once the betting public latches on to one that is officially lobbed in the price will collapse (eg Potterman 40-12/1 and Secret Investor 20/1-15/2 in the Ladbrokes Trophy) regardless of any other factors in play.

<blockquote data-quote="Desert Orchid" data-source="post: 2590440" data-attributes="member: 65242">I&#039;m indebted to a seldom [these days] seen forumite for highlighting one for the Welsh National and the reasoning is entirely sound.We&#039;ll know more tomorrow but the chances are Secret Reprieve will go up 12lbs or thereabouts for his win at the weekend and I was too late for the 10/1 that was on offer. I&#039;ve taken 7/1 this evening and I fully agree with my my co-forumite that this will go off around the 9/4 mark. I mentioned elsewhere that Native River probably will be taken out and Secret Reprieve will only have a 4lbs penalty so will be around 8lbs well in - that&#039;s 16 lengths in soft ground at the trip, which is a huge advantage - and will almost certainly make the cut.I&#039;m not given to over-excitement about ante-post bets because I know the pitfalls but, as I&#039;ve mentioned before, once the betting public latches on to one that is officially lobbed in the price will collapse (eg Potterman 40-12/1 and Secret Investor 20/1-15/2 in the Ladbrokes Trophy) regardless of any other factors in play.</blockquote>

[QUOTE="Desert Orchid, post: 2590440, member: 65242"] I'm indebted to a seldom [these days] seen forumite for highlighting one for the Welsh National and the reasoning is entirely sound. We'll know more tomorrow but the chances are Secret Reprieve will go up 12lbs or thereabouts for his win at the weekend and I was too late for the 10/1 that was on offer. I've taken 7/1 this evening and I fully agree with my my co-forumite that this will go off around the 9/4 mark. I mentioned elsewhere that Native River probably will be taken out and Secret Reprieve will only have a 4lbs penalty so will be around 8lbs well in - that's 16 lengths in soft ground at the trip, which is a huge advantage - and will almost certainly make the cut. I'm not given to over-excitement about ante-post bets because I know the pitfalls but, as I've mentioned before, once the betting public latches on to one that is officially lobbed in the price will collapse (eg Potterman 40-12/1 and Secret Investor 20/1-15/2 in the Ladbrokes Trophy) regardless of any other factors in play. [/QUOTE]

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