Ante-Post Punting Plans/Propositions Thread.

[Marb]

A thread for whatever we want to sketch down on this cyber canvas, for the odd horse that we want to back for a race, (flat or jumps). Also a thread for horses we would like to see targeted at a specific race.

I'm sure this will throw a few good/bad ideas/bets up, (predominately from me!).

I've put some brain power into considering suitable options for Ultima Chase second, Shantou Flyer, post Cheltenham Festival.

He put in a lifetime best that day, when giving weight to the handicap blot of the day, Coo Star Sivola.

Shantou Flyer's entered in The Grand National, but as some of us mentioned before, the possibility of a faller in front of you or bad luck in running puts me off somewhat. I think if trainer and connections really wanted to stand a live chance of winning a good race they should avoid the National.

Given the way Shantou Flyer was staying on in The Ultima, I'd like to see connections wait until The Bet 365 Gold Cup at Sandown at the end of April over 3m5F. Maybe ground conditions will play a part in where they go with this one, (perhaps soft-to-heavy is his favored going, although he may act on better ground; he just hasn't had that many opportunities to race on that this season).

He's really got better with the new headgear and new trainer Richard Hobson getting to know him well. I emailed him to say they should be looking at The Bet 365 Gold Cup so am pleased to see him in the entries.

There's loads of time to get involved anti-post, (a couple firms have gone 20/1 early doors which is fine). I'm in no great rush. He could run in The National yet. A lot can happen between now and the end of the month.

 

[Desert Orchid]

SF will never win the Grand National so some other target would be sensible.

If any firm offered NRNB, one horse I'd be prepared to punt ante-post for any race for which it qualified, from the 2000G to the Grand National, would be Mendelssohn.

The other day I managed to look at Mendelssohn's UAE Derby win.


Watching it, what was going through my mind was:


a) He had to be ridden vigorously in an attempt to get to the lead before the first turn. He didn't manage that.
b) He did get to the front by the end of the turn and got over to the rail. After that he made the rest.
c) He appeared to be going a good pace (but my eye isn't used to AW racing so I wondered about it).
d) I already knew he had won by 18 lengths so when he was a few lengths clear at halfway I was thinking of the possibly apocryphal old Irish* trainer's instructions to his jockey, "Start off in front and keep improving your position".
e) He was putting distance between himself and the rest all the way through the final couple of furlongs.
f) The horse that beat him to the turn held on for second or third all the way. Not much got into the race behind these two.


Looking back at the race, those 18 lengths, on normal calculations, equate to about 32lbs, or at least they do on good turf ground. I'm not sure if AW is different but it won't be by much if any. It was a G2 race so the general level of the field was almost certain to be in the 100-110 range generally.


A worst-case scenario would bring Mendelssohn out at 132+. A best-case 142+. He also gave the runner-up, the filly Rayya the 5lbs gender allowance.


I then checked through the result. She was rated 105, the third was 104 and the next three 113, 112 and 110.

The only conclusion I can draw is that Mendelssohn is definitely a very high class horse. Whether AOB has something better at home being prepared for the Guineas (Saxon Warrior) or Derby (The Pentagon?) just makes this Flat season all the more something to look forward to than usual.

* That is not a lazy attempt at racial humour. The story as presented to me many decades ago concerned a top Irish trainer at the time. I just can't remember the name.

 

[Euronymous]

One that's tempting me is Rhododendron for the Queen Anne - 12/1

She's entered in the Lockinge but that's a race Ballydoyle rarely target with mush gusto and I can see her needing it if she comes across.

Of the likely oppo at Ascot you have Benbatl who is short based on bullshit Meydan form, Le Brivido who is respected and not much else really.

I think a stiff mile would be ideal for the filly.


Re Mendelssohn, there is precedent in terms of Kentucky Derby horses turning up a month later for Epsom and winning. Although I do like The Pentagon a lot.

 

[sunybay]

The problem with Mendhelson , is that most horses after such a good nce bounce in his next run, no doubt Meydans was a high 130s performance but will be no price and likely to feel the effects.

 

[Danny]

I'll be honest I'm not much of a group race judge and for that matter my knowledge of 2yo's form is around the square root of sweet F.A, as with the jumps I'm more comfortable with handicaps. However with that punting health warning out of the way the one two year old who really caught my eye last term was Gaiyyath. He's in the markets for all 3 English classics and the race he won at the back end of last season is probably more a pointer towards Leger horses. I was so impressed with him I think he could very well take a hand in the Guineas but probably more so the Derby. I wouldn't really be prepared to back the opinion ante-post but he probably would be the horse I'm most looking forward to seeing this term.

 

[reet hard]

SF will never win the Grand National so some other target would be sensible.

If any firm offered NRNB, one horse I'd be prepared to punt ante-post for any race for which it qualified, from the 2000G to the Grand National, would be Mendelssohn.

The other day I managed to look at Mendelssohn's UAE Derby win.


Watching it, what was going through my mind was:


a) He had to be ridden vigorously in an attempt to get to the lead before the first turn. He didn't manage that.
b) He did get to the front by the end of the turn and got over to the rail. After that he made the rest.
c) He appeared to be going a good pace (but my eye isn't used to AW racing so I wondered about it).
d) I already knew he had won by 18 lengths so when he was a few lengths clear at halfway I was thinking of the possibly apocryphal old Irish* trainer's instructions to his jockey, "Start off in front and keep improving your position".
e) He was putting distance between himself and the rest all the way through the final couple of furlongs.
f) The horse that beat him to the turn held on for second or third all the way. Not much got into the race behind these two.


Looking back at the race, those 18 lengths, on normal calculations, equate to about 32lbs, or at least they do on good turf ground. I'm not sure if AW is different but it won't be by much if any. It was a G2 race so the general level of the field was almost certain to be in the 100-110 range generally.


A worst-case scenario would bring Mendelssohn out at 132+. A best-case 142+. He also gave the runner-up, the filly Rayya the 5lbs gender allowance.


I then checked through the result. She was rated 105, the third was 104 and the next three 113, 112 and 110.

The only conclusion I can draw is that Mendelssohn is definitely a very high class horse. Whether AOB has something better at home being prepared for the Guineas (Saxon Warrior) or Derby (The Pentagon?) just makes this Flat season all the more something to look forward to than usual.

* That is not a lazy attempt at racial humour. The story as presented to me many decades ago concerned a top Irish trainer at the time. I just can't remember the name.

DO
A straightforward lift from TRF (Which is, in turn, filched from a RP article):

On the face of it, everything looks good. Mendelssohn has already won in Grade 1 company in the US, so travelling is not an issue. On his dirt debut on Saturday he posted the extravagant winning margin of eighteen and a half lengths. His sire and dam both excelled on the surface. The early fractions he posted at Meydan demonstrate that he has plenty of tactical speed, and in galloping right to the line, he lowered the 91/2-furlong track record by more than a second.

The only trouble is that this collective positive is militated by a series of caveats that make you wonder whether Mendelssohn’s overpowering triumph was too good to be true. Let’s not puncture the genuine bubble of excitement that Europe has a contender for a race it has yet to win, and let’s acknowledge that Mendelssohn’s ‘Run For The Roses’ is going to bring the great race to life on this side of the Pond. But 4-1? No thanks.

The inside rail bias at Meydan that Ryan Moore exploited has been well documented of late. Some esteemed US turf writers alluded to it in their assessment of Mendelssohn on Saturday, but the sheer extent of it cannot be glossed over. Although the bias has existed at Meydan for the past three carnivals; it has never been more pronounced than this year. Just look at the results on Saturday.

Heavy Metal, who blew out badly four weeks earlier when he was unable to lead along the inside rail, returned to the ‘golden highway’ on Saturday to win as he liked. Then Mendelssohn shattered the track record before Thunder Snow’s huge upset victory in the World Cup itself – in which he lowered the track record by nearly two seconds after racing along the inside rail.

Indeed, the only one of four dirt races on Saturday to elude the inside-rail front-runner was the 6f Golden Shaheen. That race was led out by Jordan Sport, a 16-1 chance who had never previously competed in Group 1 company. He was out of his depth, yet the winner, Mind Your Biscuits, still managed to lower the track record by more than half a second.

The track was riding faster than ever. Given the circumstances, any inside-rail runners who set stunning fractions are likely to have been flattered.

The influence of an overt track bias is common currency in the US. We sometimes see it in Europe, although no bias here has been quite as pronounced as that which tainted the Ebor festival at York in 1991.

As the three-day meeting unfolded it became obvious a thin strip of ground, one horse-width off the inside rail, was the place to be. One front-runner after another galloped to victory, in particular 16-1 chance Terimon, who raced down the Knavesmire’s very own ‘golden highway’ to upset Derby winner Quest For Fame by two lengths in the International Stakes. Terimon never came close to repeating that form again.

It later transpired that joggers had been allowed access to the course at York over many months. They had compacted the thin strip of ground over which so many horses had gained a distinct advantage, in the process making a mockery of one of the season’s signature fixtures.
It is also true that Mendelssohn beat very little in the UAE Derby. Runner-up Rayya made her debut less than four months previously and had featured prominently in as weak a division of three-year-old dirt fillies as has ever been seen in Dubai. And Reride, the US challenger who finished third, never took a single stride on the ‘golden highway’, having raced wide throughout.

But the biggest cause for concern where Mendelssohn is concerned is that he will enter the Churchill Downs cauldron without having felt a single grain of sand smack into his face. Mendelssohn’s stablemates, Seachange and Threeandfourpence, copped it by the bucket-load on Saturday. The two horses who finished within spitting distance of Mendelssohn at Dundalk three weeks earlier were beaten out of sight this time.

That’s not to say Mendelssohn has to make all in Kentucky. He can track the pace one or two wide, where he will have clean air. That’s as good an early position as there is to be had. A fast break will be required to secure it, yet even then, Mendelssohn may yet have to run through some early kickback. How will he react? A moment’s hesitation on his part will have serious ramifications in the 20-strong field. A promising early position can become a lost cause in a handful of strides.

Bold Arrangement, trained by Clive Brittain, came closest to landing the Kentucky Derby for Europe when he chased home Ferdinand in 1990. However, Europe’s failure to triumph at Churchill Downs is itself no impediment to Mendelssohn’s prospects. Arcangues won the 1993 Breeders’ Cup Classic having never raced on dirt, while Arazi, Johannesburg and Wilko all won the Juvenile in similar circumstances.

It’s more that Mendelssohn heads to Kentucky on the back of a performance which told us only that he enjoys running on dirt. Those fast sectionals, the extravagant winning distance and his pedigree credentials are all highly seductive, yet while that combination is persuasive, it begs one question.

Thunder Snow won the Dubai World Cup by five and three-quarter lengths from West Coast, who is the best older horse in training in the US. Why, then, is West Coast a best-priced 7-1 for the Breeders’ Cup Classic, with Thunder Snow available at 25-1? We all know the reasons for that. Those same reasons apply equally to Mendelssohn’s Kentucky Derby bid.

My opinion; If something looks too good to be true, it usually is.
Should Mendelsshon run in the Kentucky Derby, he'll be meeting better horses (who won't be gifting an easy lead) round a different track, over 1f further. I'd be surprised if he even runs, let alone lives up to his exhorbitant rating.

 

[Desert Orchid]

Many thanks, RH. Always good to get another view.

 

[reet hard]

Cheers, DO.
The striking thing about the race for me was - though Mendelssohn won 18l, with seemingly superlative sectionals, you'd expect (off a truly strong pace) other prominent racers to be properly burnt off in the closing stages, yet they still managed to fill 3 of the next 4 places?
For mine, despite appearances to the contrary, RM turned the race into a speed contest,(the commentator remarked he'd "taken a breather", turning in), and was best placed to take full advantage. Time will tell, but the same scenario is unlikely to obtain in the Kentucky Derby, and I'd suspect he'd be found wanting for stamina.
Trakus figures for your perusal: http://www.dubairacingclub.com/race/racing-info/trakus-chart

 

[Desert Orchid]

Thanks again, RH, esp for the trakus link.

I took another look at the card yesterday and did my own time ratings based on the published comparisons with standards in the form book, so I presume that's Raceform's standards, which I'm not sure I trust entirely. Simon Rowlands also emphises that not many races are run at the distance.

Nevertheless, assuming Thunder Snow, the second fastest against the clock on the day, ran to his OR, and he too benefited from the golden highway, all other times work out quite slow bar Mendelssohn's, which came out at 111 before any consideration for wfa. On the official scale that would be 20lbs but on the Raceform scale or Timeform's it's 'only' 14-16lbs. So we're still looking at around 125 for a rating. That would win over 50% of 2000 Guineas. I've no idea how it would stack up relative to the Kentucky Derby.

I wouldn't read anything into the poor runs of his Dundalk pursuers. That was a slowish overall time with a fastish finish so was maybe not much more than a training gallop. I'd be more inclined to take his massive increase in superiority as a reflection of his being better suited to the stronger pace. I'd also wonder if the other two bounced.

Also, I'd take his rivals not burning out as a positive. It would suggest to me they weren't really overdoing it up front, meaning simply that the conditions were conducive to fast times. A few of the races on the card were faster than standard.

 

[Tanlic]

Sometimes 2 year old's can be brilliant one day but next time round they fail to shine without any real explenation.

Expert Eye looked simply awesome at Goodwood but then he looked near useless in the Dewhurst.

Messing about like a 2 year old would've describe him well before the start..then pulled like train and collapsed in a heap.

But there can be no doubt he is still a very high class animal.

This is not the first time this has happened to a SMS Guineas horse and they have bounced back.

King's Best also finished stone last in the Dewhurst but he bounced back as a 3yo and went on to win the Guineas

I would imagine Expert Eye go for the Craven and then the Guineas which is a ploy SMS has used in the past

I just can't see him being anything like 11/1 come Guineas day

 

[Euronymous]

I'll be honest I'm not much of a group race judge and for that matter my knowledge of 2yo's form is around the square root of sweet F.A, as with the jumps I'm more comfortable with handicaps. However with that punting health warning out of the way the one two year old who really caught my eye last term was Gaiyyath. He's in the markets for all 3 English classics and the race he won at the back end of last season is probably more a pointer towards Leger horses. I was so impressed with him I think he could very well take a hand in the Guineas but probably more so the Derby. I wouldn't really be prepared to back the opinion ante-post but he probably would be the horse I'm most looking forward to seeing this term.

I remember his maiden, I banged the second in the tracker immediately. That horse, Proschema, is in the Dante but I kind of have handicap hopes for him

 

[Marb]

A thread for whatever we want to sketch down on this cyber canvas, for the odd horse that we want to back for a race, (flat or jumps). Also a thread for horses we would like to see targeted at a specific race.

I'm sure this will throw a few good/bad ideas/bets up, (predominately from me!).

I've put some brain power into considering suitable options for Ultima Chase second, Shantou Flyer, post Cheltenham Festival.

He put in a lifetime best that day, when giving weight to the handicap blot of the day, Coo Star Sivola.

Shantou Flyer's entered in The Grand National, but as some of us mentioned before, the possibility of a faller in front of you or bad luck in running puts me off somewhat. I think if trainer and connections really wanted to stand a live chance of winning a good race they should avoid the National.

Given the way Shantou Flyer was staying on in The Ultima, I'd like to see connections wait until The Bet 365 Gold Cup at Sandown at the end of April over 3m5F. Maybe ground conditions will play a part in where they go with this one, (perhaps soft-to-heavy is his favored going, although he may act on better ground; he just hasn't had that many opportunities to race on that this season).

He's really got better with the new headgear and new trainer Richard Hobson getting to know him well. I emailed him to say they should be looking at The Bet 365 Gold Cup so am pleased to see him in the entries.

There's loads of time to get involved anti-post, (a couple firms have gone 20/1 early doors which is fine). I'm in no great rush. He could run in The National yet. A lot can happen between now and the end of the month.

Mick Fitzgerald seemed quite adamant this morning Shantou Flyer will run in The National. This based on the fact James Bowen is booked to ride on The Racing Post website. I'm not so sure myself, I could see him being scratched. He has a Bowl entry I see aswell. I personally hope they wait for Sandown but we'll see.

 

[Euronymous]

Taken a bit of Politologue at 8s for the Melling. In his blog Henderson says he's sitting on the fence re Altior taking part and is eyeing the Celebration at Sandown. No Top Notch either who also waits for Sandown. If the Champion Chaser doesn't show you may be looking at Balko (also in Bowl) Cloudy Dream, Politologue, God's Own and some rags. Min is quoted also but has to be a doubt (and would be one to oppose anyway over 2m4. Politologue was legless coming up the hill at Cheltenham but I can forgive that on the ground that day.

 

[Diamond Geezer]

Altior confirmed as a NR, waits for Sandown.

 

[Marb]

Taken a bit of Politologue at 8s for the Melling. In his blog Henderson says he's sitting on the fence re Altior taking part and is eyeing the Celebration at Sandown. No Top Notch either who also waits for Sandown. If the Champion Chaser doesn't show you may be looking at Balko (also in Bowl) Cloudy Dream, Politologue, God's Own and some rags. Min is quoted also but has to be a doubt (and would be one to oppose anyway over 2m4. Politologue was legless coming up the hill at Cheltenham but I can forgive that on the ground that day.

Good stuff. Into 3's now, you've beaten the price. I notice a horse who was a strong fancy of mine for The County Hurdle before being taken out, Solomon Grey, is entered in the top novice hurdle on Friday. I'm tempted by the 16's.

 

[Marb]

Taken a bit of Politologue at 8s for the Melling. In his blog Henderson says he's sitting on the fence re Altior taking part and is eyeing the Celebration at Sandown. No Top Notch either who also waits for Sandown. If the Champion Chaser doesn't show you may be looking at Balko (also in Bowl) Cloudy Dream, Politologue, God's Own and some rags. Min is quoted also but has to be a doubt (and would be one to oppose anyway over 2m4. Politologue was legless coming up the hill at Cheltenham but I can forgive that on the ground that day.

Well done Euro, this took some foresight on your behalf. Hope you cleaned up?

 

[Danny]

Well done Euro I bet you couldn't have imagined that he'd go off at 11/1 without Altior wtf eh mate ?

 

[Euronymous]

Didn't win a penny, laid him off this morning on the machine. Couldn't see him beating Min once the rain came.

 

[Danny]

Ouch! But fair play for after timing a kick in the nuts !

 

[Marb]

Mick Fitzgerald seemed quite adamant this morning Shantou Flyer will run in The National. This based on the fact James Bowen is booked to ride on The Racing Post website. I'm not so sure myself, I could see him being scratched. He has a Bowl entry I see aswell. I personally hope they wait for Sandown but we'll see.

Maybe if he recovers they may go to Sandown still.

 

[Euronymous]

If you haven't already the Fontainebleau is worth a watch from yesterday. Olmedo got beat and when he joined the winner on his inside he looked like he was going to zoom past but was likely undone by the ground. I think on decent ground this season he is going to be a monster. I've taken 9/2 about him for the Poulains in the hope that the ground is better in mid May (unfortunately the race will be back at Longchamp which mean it'll be a draw race again.)

 

[Marb]

A thread for whatever we want to sketch down on this cyber canvas, for the odd horse that we want to back for a race, (flat or jumps). Also a thread for horses we would like to see targeted at a specific race.

I'm sure this will throw a few good/bad ideas/bets up, (predominately from me!).

I've put some brain power into considering suitable options for Ultima Chase second, Shantou Flyer, post Cheltenham Festival.

He put in a lifetime best that day, when giving weight to the handicap blot of the day, Coo Star Sivola.

Shantou Flyer's entered in The Grand National, but as some of us mentioned before, the possibility of a faller in front of you or bad luck in running puts me off somewhat. I think if trainer and connections really wanted to stand a live chance of winning a good race they should avoid the National.

Given the way Shantou Flyer was staying on in The Ultima, I'd like to see connections wait until The Bet 365 Gold Cup at Sandown at the end of April over 3m5F. Maybe ground conditions will play a part in where they go with this one, (perhaps soft-to-heavy is his favored going, although he may act on better ground; he just hasn't had that many opportunities to race on that this season).

He's really got better with the new headgear and new trainer Richard Hobson getting to know him well. I emailed him to say they should be looking at The Bet 365 Gold Cup so am pleased to see him in the entries.

There's loads of time to get involved anti-post, (a couple firms have gone 20/1 early doors which is fine). I'm in no great rush. He could run in The National yet. A lot can happen between now and the end of the month.

Only a week for this to materialise (here's hoping!).

 

[Marb]

Sometimes 2 year old's can be brilliant one day but next time round they fail to shine without any real explenation.

Expert Eye looked simply awesome at Goodwood but then he looked near useless in the Dewhurst.

Messing about like a 2 year old would've describe him well before the start..then pulled like train and collapsed in a heap.

But there can be no doubt he is still a very high class animal.

This is not the first time this has happened to a SMS Guineas horse and they have bounced back.

King's Best also finished stone last in the Dewhurst but he bounced back as a 3yo and went on to win the Guineas

I would imagine Expert Eye go for the Craven and then the Guineas which is a ploy SMS has used in the past

I just can't see him being anything like 11/1 come Guineas day

He needed that run I think mate. I'm not sure about The Guineas but I wouldn't lay him for The Derby!

Workforce the second....

 

[Tanlic]

Amazing all this time and Expert Eye has learned nothing.......when they pulled like that in the old days we used to pint them straight at a brick wall and play chicken with them.......they soon learned to settle )

I doubt if SMS gcan now go Guineas with any confidence if at all :0(

You could be right Martin but I am no more than hopeful for either now

 

[Marb]

Amazing all this time and Expert Eye has learned nothing.......when they pulled like that in the old days we used to pint them straight at a brick wall and play chicken with them.......they soon learned to settle )

I doubt if SMS gcan now go Guineas with any confidence if at all :0(

You could be right Martin but I am no more than hopeful for either now

Have to step him up in trip now, surely?