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But is he?

Either way, for me and presumably for Outsider, it's purely down to his current mark (138) off which he won a £100k PP race at the track the season before last and was short-headed off 143 by Fugitif in a £150k hcap here last season for which he went up to 148 and was third, again here, to Ga Law in a £100k PP hcap. I think at that point Nicholls accepted that mark was beyond him and his campaign since then has been to get him competitively handicapped, which he has absolutely achieved.

He's maybe exposed as not being able to win off 148 but 138 is a different matter.

With two weeks to go he only needs six to come out to get a run and that will almost certainly happen. They maybe need the likes of Protektorat (top weight 167 at the moment) to come out to raise the weights enough to prevent him from running from out of the weights but I'm sure Nicholls will have some good claimer on standby. It will then depend on whether Nicholls runs Stage Star (163, second top). If he does the IR would be on 10-1 so only a pound 'wrong'. The next top is Ga Law (155) but the Irish horses haven't been listed with ratings as yet so that's unlikely to remain the case with the weights out tomorrow (?)

I reckon once the pundits look at the race they'll be giving IR a strong mention and the odds will halve. This new handicap mark is very generous.

<blockquote data-quote="Desert Orchid" data-source="post: 2686294" data-attributes="member: 65242">But is he?Either way, for me and presumably for Outsider, it&#039;s purely down to his current mark (138) off which he won a £100k PP race at the track the season before last and was short-headed off 143 by Fugitif in a £150k hcap here last season for which he went up to 148 and was third, again here, to Ga Law in a £100k PP hcap. I think at that point Nicholls accepted that mark was beyond him and his campaign since then has been to get him competitively handicapped, which he has absolutely achieved.He&#039;s maybe exposed as not being able to win off 148 but 138 is a different matter. With two weeks to go he only needs six to come out to get a run and that will almost certainly happen. They maybe need the likes of Protektorat (top weight 167 at the moment) to come out to raise the weights enough to prevent him from running from out of the weights but I&#039;m sure Nicholls will have some good claimer on standby. It will then depend on whether Nicholls runs Stage Star (163, second top). If he does the IR would be on 10-1 so only a pound &#039;wrong&#039;. The next top is Ga Law (155) but the Irish horses haven&#039;t been listed with ratings as yet so that&#039;s unlikely to remain the case with the weights out tomorrow (?)I reckon once the pundits look at the race they&#039;ll be giving IR a strong mention and the odds will halve. This new handicap mark is very generous.</blockquote>

[QUOTE="Desert Orchid, post: 2686294, member: 65242"] But is he? Either way, for me and presumably for Outsider, it's purely down to his current mark (138) off which he won a £100k PP race at the track the season before last and was short-headed off 143 by Fugitif in a £150k hcap here last season for which he went up to 148 and was third, again here, to Ga Law in a £100k PP hcap. I think at that point Nicholls accepted that mark was beyond him and his campaign since then has been to get him competitively handicapped, which he has absolutely achieved. He's maybe exposed as not being able to win off 148 but 138 is a different matter. With two weeks to go he only needs six to come out to get a run and that will almost certainly happen. They maybe need the likes of Protektorat (top weight 167 at the moment) to come out to raise the weights enough to prevent him from running from out of the weights but I'm sure Nicholls will have some good claimer on standby. It will then depend on whether Nicholls runs Stage Star (163, second top). If he does the IR would be on 10-1 so only a pound 'wrong'. The next top is Ga Law (155) but the Irish horses haven't been listed with ratings as yet so that's unlikely to remain the case with the weights out tomorrow (?) I reckon once the pundits look at the race they'll be giving IR a strong mention and the odds will halve. This new handicap mark is very generous. [/QUOTE]

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