Are we in a sea of mediocrity?

Desert Orchid

Desert Orchid

Senior Jockey
Joined
Aug 2, 2005
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Just reading through some of the threads on the various big festival races, I'm wondering if we're going through an extended period of mediocrity.

Whenever we've discussed Arkle (and Flying bolt) we're told their ratings can't possibly be right, that there's no way they could give over a stone to the likes of Kauto Star or Desert Orchid.

Then we get some professionals arguing that horses these days have artificially inflated ratings.

Yet in the Champion Hurdle, we have a hot favourite rated just 162 and only really favourite because she's getting 7lbs from the blokes.

In the Stayers' Hurdle the front two are in the low-mid 160s.

There's already talk of the Supreme being below par.

I can accept that juveniles are much harder to get a handle on. Apparently there's only a pound or two between Zanahiyr and Monmiral on ORs. (On my figures I wouldn't fancy the latter to get within ten lengths of the former.)

But where are all these inflated ratings?

Are they just in handicaps?

I like to think I'm more of a glass-half-full than glass-half-empty kind of person and maybe I'm subconsciously affected by all the current goings-on in the world but I look around the 'big' races at the moment and am not impressed.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TFOoay29ybc
 
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I think the overall standard of hurdler has dropped in recent years. A lot of this is sales based with a greater appetite for horses being bought for staying flat races over a more traditional jumps route.

Every horse rating should be representative of its time. With advances in nutrition, facilities, knowledge, a modern day horse is a superior physical beast than something in the 60's/70's/80's

Like brilliant football teams of yester year would be left for dead athletically and physically now but it should not reflect on them as being inferior

Ratings are so open to interpertation that an idle mind cound argue black was white even if they only posessed a midgen of intellect
 
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These things are cyclical. After the feast comes the famine. We can’t expect every crop to improve on the last one.

I actually quite admire it when the ratings agencies are prepared to go low with ratings for ‘champions’. I’d rather that, than them chuck an extra few lbs onto horses, solely because they won (for example) a Champion Hurdle.

Are we in a ‘sea of mediocrity’? Probably not, but we are in a period where we the top-end hurdlers are not quite so good as those which came before them. I think we might view the staying chasers differently in a year or two, as last seasons novice-hurdlers (a strong crop, imo) graduate into open company over fences.
 
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If Make a Stand or Istabraq were around today they'd be running in flat races in Hong Kong or Australia. The 2m division is fucked permanent imo.
 
I think it’s terribly difficult to compare different eras, as Granger says you can only really compare how they got on with their peers at the time. I watched Arkle destroy everything in his path (except Flyingbolt since they never met) and with those memories it’s easy to think he would have done the same whichever era he’d pitched up in.

So far as hurdlers are concerned it seems in the modern era that it’s much more looked upon as a stepping stone to chasing than I remember. There seems far less regard for hurdlers in their own right. So the standard is bound to suffer if you keep taking out the decent ones to go chasing at every whipstitch.
 
You simply don't get too may Istabraqs or Kauto Stars in a bag of coal.

Hurricane Fly being the best since him but he was himself beatable outside of his beloved Ireland

On the bright side Epatante might be the best we have seen in a very long time. She won the Champion Hurdle like it was a stroll in the park and a second win looks almost certain barring accidents
Had Kauto Star been 100% right he imo would have won 3 Gold Cups but Denman ws far from mediocre

In comparison the Gold Cups since Synchronised have been fairly poor quality

Best Mate won 3 in the worst era in living memory
but prior to that some real class animals won the race

Cant have an Arkle or a Kauto Star every year and if we don't have we then ask he question Dessie has

i should ad I think without the allowance Epatante would still win doing handstands
 
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Shiskin has had one race over fences and Envoi Allen two....bit early but of the two Envoi Allen has so much toe he is iMO heading to the very top
 
Anytime I look at the Supreme Novice betting I keep wondering where the good horses are.
 
It think over two miles we are. There's plenty of top horses and strength in depth over the intermediate and staying divisions though. Part of it is to do with the obsession in buying future staying chasers.

Nicky is widely regarded as overperforming with his training of two mile hurdlers and chasers, when the truth is he's better at buying them. He buys the right strores and point horses, whereas Willie tends to buy his two milers from France.

Gordon's operation and purchases ahve been dominated by the brother Grimm wanting staying chasers, but Cheveley will probably change that for him now, and it's worth watching how he picks up quality on the two mile divisions.
 
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I like this angle Paul

Owners have all been seduced into buying staying horses that there will have to be a shrewd buyer/trainer somewhere who can target the speedier horse.

There could be less money invested in the gamefor multiple reasons so money will need to be utilised more shrewedly
 
The speedier staying horses are hard to find Granger

When Arkle was bought I imagine the main reason was his grans sire Nearco who remained unbeaten throughout his entire career

Other like Mill House What A myth etc etc were bread to get 4 miles which gave Arkle a huge advantage

they were smarter than the average bear buying Flyingbolt who's sire won the Derby

To be fair he was a 2 miler who's class allowed him to get further twice at unbackable odds

off the subject.....Would he have been able to stay 3m2f with Arkle and Mill House in a Gold Cup at their racing pace?..........imvho not a hope in hell
 
I love novice/beginner chases more than any other over jumps

In Britain more than Ireland these races are **** poor (quality wise) and all too often with 5 runners or less

I'd love to put more life into this type of horse

You could reduce the number of graded races and aim to focus on quality rather than quantity or incentivise a novice to race against it's elders in the spring
 
I too am a huge fan but even when there are only 4 or 5 runners I am on the edge of my seat hoping horses like Shishkin don't get injured......

The Arkle and the Champion Hurdle are my fav festival races ( except when Kauto was running) they are the two races most likely to start off champions imo

Some might think less of The Arkle than others but when you consider the last horse before the Douvan Altior double that won the Supreme was Flyingbolt in the 60's

HOWEVER the race is always great to watch, has a great record for the best horse winning, even Champagne Fever was considered unlucky by many
 
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Slim said:
Do Envoi Allen and Shishkin not count?
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I could ask the same about Shan Blue who is not even quoted for a festival race but looks like a future Gold Cup horse

One of the most well balanced horse I have seen in a long time is a brilliant jumper with an outstanding physique for a novice

No idea why he is not in the RSA betting maybe the bookies are terrified to quote prices?
 
I got 60 quid each way on Shan Blue for the RSA at 25's a couple weeks ago with bet 365. My only a/p bet for Cheltenham thus far.

I don't know how good Monkfish will be but we shouldn't be shaking in our boots about one horse in a race like this, surely?

I agree about Shan Blue, I hope he wins well on Boxing Day, putting himself in the RSA picture.

He's been in the betting for it in the anti-post markets for ages, Tanlic.
 
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Tanlic said:
I could ask the same about Shan Blue who is not even quoted for a festival race but looks like a future Gold Cup horse

One of the most well balanced horse I have seen in a long time is a brilliant jumper with an outstanding physique for a novice

No idea why he is not in the RSA betting maybe the bookies are terrified to quote prices?
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Shan Blue is quoted at 25/1 for the RSA Chase, by all the usual suspects.

His current market price is likely dictated to an extent by the fact that the horses he beat in his sole 3m chase start, would likely find a Welsh National all happening a bit too quick for them......that plus the fact he was beaten 20+L in the Ballymore, and that a certain Monkfish (amongst others) is likely to lie in wait at Cheltenham.

I like the horse, and backed him yesterday for the Kauto Star Chase, but talk of the Gold Cup is the kind of utter lunacy I’m prepared to put down to the malignant effects of the TB medicine until I’m told otherwise.
 
Grasshopper said:
Shan Blue is quoted at 25/1 for the RSA Chase, by all the usual suspects.

His current market price is likely dictated to an extent by the fact that the horses he beat in his sole 3m chase start, would likely find a Welsh National all happening a bit too quick for them......that plus the fact he was beaten 20+L in the Ballymore, and that a certain Monkfish (amongst others) is likely to lie in wait at Cheltenham.

I like the horse, and backed him yesterday for the Kauto Star Chase, but talk of the Gold Cup is the kind of utter lunacy I’m prepared to put down to the malignant effects of the TB medicine until I’m told otherwise.
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Lunacy.. Am I not the guy who emailed David Cleary Sprinter Sacre was the new Arkle when he had only jumped 5 fences or said Binocular would win a Champion Hurdle after his very first race at Kempton?

Anyway I might have been talking about the Paddy Power Gold Cup:lol:
 
Little-known Christmas fact:

”Shan” is an Edinburgh expression for something that’s not very good.

I’m not making that up either! :lol:
 
Examples:

”Mate, where did you get the shan haircuit?”

”Check oot the shan trainers on the boy”

”Aye, his 16yo daughter is up the duff - it’s a bit shan, likes”


Your communal education in Edinburgh vernacular will continue whenever I can be arsed. Please now press-on with your assorted Christmas merriments. :thumbsup:
 
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I doubt if the owners thought of Edinburgh..........The Shan are a Thai speaking tribe Shan Blue means Blue Mountains:whistle:
 
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I think Marb is hoping its the other jockey's flailing behind him shouting... ''Shane! Come back!'' ''Come back Shane''
 
After today Envoi Allen and Shishkin might be the only top class jumpers in training. Utter shite all round.
 
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