Arkle Novices Chase Tues March 15th

Spoke to Nicky Ricards a few weeks back and he told me Ribble Valley a favourite horse of mines has been on the sick list but is back in work and going well,

He last ran a decent 3rd to Epatante and might have been much closer but for the fact they found aproblem that has kept him off the course since.

It would be a huge ask just to get there but 20quid EW at 66/1 isn't going to cause me too much stress if he doesn't make it
:)
 
Gabynako suplemented for 8k, probably a wise move when you look at the front two in the turner's, it's a **** poor Arkle in all honesty.
 
Oh god maybe I'm way off but I just don't rate Edwarstone at all mediocre hurlder who has undoubtedly improved for fences but still a way off the class required, Blue Lord is second choice for Clossuton who is well below the normal standard required and the mare has been well over raced. I fancy Couer Sublime myself to be honest.
 
Beef or Salmon said:
Oh god maybe I'm way off but I just don't rate Edwarstone at all mediocre hurlder who has undoubtedly improved for fences but still a way off the class required, Blue Lord is second choice for Clossuton who is well below the normal standard required and the mare has been well over raced. I fancy Couer Sublime myself to be honest.
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I do rate EDWARDSTONE. I've been really impressed with it this year.jumps very well(probably fall now).travels well.
 
Beef or Salmon said:
Oh god maybe I'm way off but I just don't rate Edwarstone at all mediocre hurlder who has undoubtedly improved for fences but still a way off the class required, Blue Lord is second choice for Clossuton who is well below the normal standard required and the mare has been well over raced. I fancy Couer Sublime myself to be honest.
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I don't think you're off at all. The Arkle has always been one of my favourite races of the Festival but no matter how you crack it this is one poor renewal...Edwardstone may well win but He certainly doesn't grab the attention of being a future champion like Sprinter Douvan or Altior did. They kept the media busy on the build up whereas Edwardstone is about as interesting as watching paint dry in comparison. I'll be amazed if the winner goes on to bigger and better things this time round.
 
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It will be a disappointing Arkle in my opinion if the 8yo Edwardstone wins. Having said that I saw somewhere the last 8yo to win it was Sizing Europe who didn’t turn out too bad!
Of course SE had been jolly for a CH the year before


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Beef or Salmon said:
Oh god maybe I'm way off but I just don't rate Edwarstone at all mediocre hurlder who has undoubtedly improved for fences but still a way off the class required, Blue Lord is second choice for Clossuton who is well below the normal standard required and the mare has been well over raced. I fancy Couer Sublime myself to be honest.
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Ive heard this said a few times about edwardstone. There aren't any grade 1 hurdlers in the field or anything near it. A field of Boodles horses and some 20l off supreme class.
 
Edwardstone was a hard-as-nails handicapper last year, putting up some really good performances under stopping weights. He deserves a bit more respect than some people are giving him.
 
I've been impressed with Edwardstone, my only concern would be whether he has beaten anything of substance, given how poor the UK 2 mile novices were last season.
 
Grasshopper said:
Edwardstone was a hard-as-nails handicapper last year, putting up some really good performances under stopping weights. He deserves a bit more respect than some people are giving him.
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Edwardstone, in my opinion, would have made up this season into a contender for a minor place in the champion Hurdle had he not gone over fences.

I can see where the dissers are coming from, though. We've been spoiled with Altior and Shishkin of late, horses who could/would have been serious Champion Hurdle horses but who ended up blowing away the oppo over fences. Edwardstone probably isn't in that class but he's damn good.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Edwardstone, in my opinion, would have made up this season into a contender for a minor place in the champion Hurdle had he not gone over fences.

I can see where the dissers are coming from, though. We've been spoiled with Altior and Shishkin of late, horses who could/would have been serious Champion Hurdle horses but who ended up blowing away the oppo over fences. Edwardstone probably isn't in that class but he's damn good.
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I agree, think if Edwardstone was trainer by Mullins or Henderson he'd be evens.
 
Desert Orchid said:
On what criteria, BoS?

I don't have my trusted magnifying glass to hand but it looks to me that on 'Card RPRs' as listed in the Weekender this race might be better than any renewal since Altior's.
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Magnifying glass to hand now and I wasn't entirely correct...

Last few renewals - 'card RPRs' of the winners / pounds off the top-rated:

Shishkin 180 / 0
PTKO 165 / 9
Duc DG 165 / 5
Footpad 178 / 0
Altior 180 / 0

Edwardstone is top on RPRs with an adjusted RPR of 174 so in the same ball park as an average top-rated contender.

(Lesson - make sure you can see clearly before saying what you see...)
 
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archie said:
The last 10 winners have been aged 6 or 7 and have won their last race. Blue Lord or Coeur Sublime then.
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How many older horses have tried with a genuine chance? Could probably name 3, of which I didn't fancy any.
 
Frankel said:
How many older horses have tried with a genuine chance? Could probably name 3, of which I didn't fancy any.
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2021 1x5yo Allmankind 2nd Fav
2020 1x5 4x8 Cash Back 3rd Fav
2019 1x8 1x9 Ornua 14/1
2018 1x5 Saint Calvados 2nd Fav
2017 3x9 Royal Caviar 2nd Fav
2016 0
2015 1x5 2x8 1x10 Clarcam 16/1
2014 1x9 Rock On Ruby 5/1
2013 1x5 1x8 1x9 Overturn 2nd Fav
2012 1x8 Foildubh 66/1

A total of 82 runners in 10 years.
5x5yo
9x8yo
7x9yo
1x10yo
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Magnifying glass to hand now and I wasn't entirely correct...

Last few renewals - 'card RPRs' of the winners / pounds off the top-rated:

Shishkin 180 / 0
PTKO 165 / 9
Duc DG 165 / 5
Footpad 178 / 0
Altior 180 / 0

Edwardstone is top on RPRs with an adjusted RPR of 174 so in the same ball park as an average top-rated contender.

(Lesson - make sure you can see clearly before saying what you see...)
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The poblem with ratings for the Arkle is it is not a h'cap. Plus if you're Irish they rend to underestimate you........
Douvan was rated 159 going into the Arkle which was a joke considering his true ability.

He was at least up there with Altior who went into the Arkle off 170


Sprinter was rated 169 which we know now is laughable

Edwardstone is a 159 horse and Shiskin 164

No doubt in my mind who is the better horse and Edwardstone IMO falls way below the ball park
 
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We won’t really know until after the race, will we? Edwardstone hasn’t done anything wrong, he jumps well and hasn’t had to extend himself too much. Maybe he’ll be found wanting, maybe he won’t.
 
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