Ascot races Saturday 23rd January

Diamond Geezer

Diamond Geezer

Gone But Not Forgotten
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May 2, 2003
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Saturdays big chase at Ascot 7 left in Captain Conan, Felix Yonger, Simply Ned, Sire De Grugy, Traffic Fluide, Un De Sceaux & Vibrato Valtat


Vroum Vroum Mag in Mares Race
 
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Un De Sceaux can be backed at 10/11

He doesn't scare at least 1 bookie and needs to be taken on

The risk is will the real Sire De Grugy turn up

Back in Novemeber you wouldn't have fancied he'd go on to win the Tingle Creek or Run Sprinter Scare so close after that poor start

He seems to be right back to his best but he can run the odd stinker

I'm willing to take the chance if I can get about 3/1 on the day as I am not UDS's biggest fan and I think Moore will go at him from very early on in the race and totally unsettle him
 
Tanlic said:
Un De Sceaux can be backed at 10/11

He doesn't scare at least 1 bookie and needs to be taken on

The risk is will the real Sire De Grugy turn up

Back in Novemeber you wouldn't have fancied he'd go on to win the Tingle Creek or Run Sprinter Scare so close after that poor start

He seems to be right back to his best but he can run the odd stinker

I'm willing to take the chance if I can get about 3/1 on the day as I am not UDS's biggest fan and I think Moore will go at him from very early on in the race and totally unsettle him
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Go at him?? SDG wont get near him unless he tumbles again.
 
Indeed. Even Felix Younger @ 7/1 would contract if it turns out to be true. Hasn't UDS an option in Ireland a week or so from now also?


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Kauto Abu said:
Indeed. Even Felix Younger @ 7/1 would contract if it turns out to be true. Hasn't UDS an option in Ireland a week or so from now also?
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8/1 at Corals taken. I did the same thing in the Tolworth, backing Agrapart each way thinking Yorkhill wouldn't show up.
 
might be a fair few burnt fingers on uds if he doesn't show. steadily being backed in since the opening show.

think if the ground stays soft enough he'll turn up
 
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This will be a proper test for UDS - I think that the Tingle Creek and Desert Orchid runs suggest that SDG is close to his best . For all his obvious talent UDS has never met a horse of SDG's calibre over fences before .
 
Wylie wouldn't be playing second-fiddle to UDS's owners, Euro.

He has a much bigger presence in Mullins yard, and more ammo at his disposal as a buyer. The decision not to run Felix Yonger has clearly been taken for other reasons.
 
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Ar Mad would have beaten SDG at Sandown had they run in same race...what price UDS to beat Ar Mad?

Imo..the 2 mile division isn't that great at the moment..and thats why SDG has been able to come back..he isn't near his best from the past..he won't know whats hit him when he tries to mix it with UDS

i'd say Clarcam is of a similar level to what SDG is capable of these days..UDS arseplated him giving weight
 
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Jamie Moore said he felt close to his best when beaten by Sprinter Sacre and judging from how downbeat he was after Exeter he does not strike me as a bullshitter.
 
i don't really listen to jockeys or trainers tbh Ardross...even less so after what DO said yesterday about Henderson..have found you are better using your own judgement..you only have yourself to blame then. I doubt he is a bullshitter..but not long ago he said hoss had gone at game..so i'm not rushing to believe the turn round in his view..particular with what the figures are telling me.

Even if SDG is back to best though..and the last two runs don't suggest that to me..he would still have about 10lb to find with UDS imo

I hope it wins for you..i'll ony have enough on to buy some guinness tbh..so it don't bother me much either way...NH racing is more a watching game than a money botherer for me.
 
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I was balls deep in Value At Risk for last season's potato race. He was running a fine race until emptying as the field went round the final turn. Plenty of horses ran stinkers in that race though and off 142 tomorrow he appeals as being rampantly well in.
 
Just read this elsewhere Re: GR1 chases & trends ( I don't know if 100% accurate)

"In Grade 1s where the horse was a faller last time they have a very poor record of 2/70, bring that down to exclude novice chases and remove anything over 10/1 and it leaves Kauto Star as the only one to win a G1 chase off the back of a fall from 18 who attempted it."

Then SDG is at a great price for manana, if you like your trends & its correct.
 
SDG is not such a good price if you follow a different trend though...horses age 9+ = 0/26..just 5 placed..other age groups supplied the other 27 runners..with 8 winners

the age stat is more relevant imo..both are interesting anyway..to me anyway..very few on here like stats..unless one suits their cause:lol:

these are since race changed in 2008
 
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EC1 said:
SDG is not such a good price if you follow a different trend though...horses age 9+ = 0/26..just 5 placed..other age groups supplied the other 27 runners..with 8 winners

the age stat is more relevant imo..both are interesting anyway..to me anyway..very few on here like stats..unless one suits their cause:lol:

these are since race changed in 2008
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Now becomes interesting by combining the two trends (if I really needed to do this for you guys :o) leaves us with 2, Traffic Fluide & Vibralto Valtat.

TF's young jockey never won at Ascot and we would assume not tomorrow either and although the horse is improving & trainer Moore in form, back from a long break so prob not ready for this yet.

So Fehily booked for VV, only ridden the horse twice at the back end of 2014 & won both times (aha! another trend :lol:) appears to prefer a nice bit of cut and will get that tomorrow, and last years winning combo too, tho Nicholls is hardly firing on all cylinders.

I will follow the trends we found with a little of the above and go for VV win and although I have already backed SDG, I will be foolish enough to sf on VV & SDG & VV & UDS for experimental purposes of course.

although as you said EC ... "unless one suits their cause" ;)
 
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