davidjohnson
At the Start
- Joined
- Jun 29, 2007
- Messages
- 3,434
Looks a good card this, and reckon a couple of the races give us a chance to have a couple of bets.
Starting with the Mile.
Mindurownbusiness looks on the short side at 9/4. Obviously going the right way, but it his handicap winning form really much stronger than that put up by Mister Universe. Would give him a chance, and it looks fair ebnough that Sovereign Debt is even shorter, unlucky not to beat him at Wolves when conceding him weight. Genuinely think this is more like a 7/2 the field race rather than a 9/4 jolly.
One that interests me most is Big Baz. He's had one blob in Dubai, but his last run suggests he's over that when he ran on late from a poor position in a Group 2, and he ran a belter first time out there despite 9f just stretching him. I'd say his Newmarket and Kempton wins give him form that matches any of these, has Sovereign Debt behind him at Kempton when winning a fast-track qualifier for this. Conditions likely to be absolutely fine, and on his best he's got as good a chance as any. Definitely think any double figs are worth taking.
3-y-o Sprint
Looks an interesting race too. Gracious John on his best behaviour wins this, but there's so little margin for error over 5f at Lingfield that I want to take him on after his antics last time at around 7/4. Wolowitz is an obvious danger as a progressive horse that has won his 3 starts on AW, but the piece of form that interests me most is the Fast-Track Qualifier won by Quatrieme Ami. That horse looks short enough at around 6s, but I think Sign of the Kodiac is well overpriced at 33s. He's closely matched with the McBride horse on his last 2 runs and surprised there's as much between them as there is. Obviously has a bit to find with the favourites, but never out the first 2 over 5f on AW and looks to have a really good attitude. Can't understand his price in relation to likes of Aguerooo who has been winning some weak races. If we get a bit of luck with the draw he's gonna make a decent first of it. Would have priced him around a 12s chance.
Sure I'll add a few thoughts later in the week.
Starting with the Mile.
Mindurownbusiness looks on the short side at 9/4. Obviously going the right way, but it his handicap winning form really much stronger than that put up by Mister Universe. Would give him a chance, and it looks fair ebnough that Sovereign Debt is even shorter, unlucky not to beat him at Wolves when conceding him weight. Genuinely think this is more like a 7/2 the field race rather than a 9/4 jolly.
One that interests me most is Big Baz. He's had one blob in Dubai, but his last run suggests he's over that when he ran on late from a poor position in a Group 2, and he ran a belter first time out there despite 9f just stretching him. I'd say his Newmarket and Kempton wins give him form that matches any of these, has Sovereign Debt behind him at Kempton when winning a fast-track qualifier for this. Conditions likely to be absolutely fine, and on his best he's got as good a chance as any. Definitely think any double figs are worth taking.
3-y-o Sprint
Looks an interesting race too. Gracious John on his best behaviour wins this, but there's so little margin for error over 5f at Lingfield that I want to take him on after his antics last time at around 7/4. Wolowitz is an obvious danger as a progressive horse that has won his 3 starts on AW, but the piece of form that interests me most is the Fast-Track Qualifier won by Quatrieme Ami. That horse looks short enough at around 6s, but I think Sign of the Kodiac is well overpriced at 33s. He's closely matched with the McBride horse on his last 2 runs and surprised there's as much between them as there is. Obviously has a bit to find with the favourites, but never out the first 2 over 5f on AW and looks to have a really good attitude. Can't understand his price in relation to likes of Aguerooo who has been winning some weak races. If we get a bit of luck with the draw he's gonna make a decent first of it. Would have priced him around a 12s chance.
Sure I'll add a few thoughts later in the week.
