Bad Habits

I think i've managed to eliminate all the usual bad habits punters have but my one weakness is still not having enough on. I've been even worse this year but I haven't worked since the end of January so the mindset with little income coming in (just a small railway pension) has been challenging. Fortunately my ROI has been 3 or 4 % points above the usual and my Crypto investment is looking good so it looks like retirement (at least from full time work permanent work) is feasible.
 
Good thread, this:
One of my bad habits raised its head again yesterday, and it's cost me plenty over the years, viz; taking fitness on trust..
I put up St Lawrence yesterday, but, as the race clearly showed, it was neither fit, nor ready to win against humdrum opposition, after a 3 month break. In other words, I guessed, and in my eyes guessing = gambling, which I ought to be long in the tooth enough to avoid. Occasionally I guess correctly, but not nearly enough to compensate for the times I dont. Not sure I'll ever learn, either. :rolleyes:
 
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Not entirely convinced that's a 'bad habit' as such, reet.

Unless you're connected with a stable, it's nigh-on impossible as a punter to know a horses level of fitness, and you basically have to take it on trust. Clearly, FTO records can be taken into account (for the horse in question and the yard generally), but it still means a degree of educated guesswork is involved. The alternative is not to bet in races where one or more are having their first run, but I suspect that's going to wipe out more opportunities, than it does mitigate risk.

Of course, weighing horses on arrival at the track and making this information public, would go a long way to removing at least some of that guesswork......but that's an idea myself and others have been touting on racing-forums for probably 20 years, and it's never gained an iota of traction.

My bad habit is not leaving enough time to analyse a race properly.

This is less of an issue with big ante-post races, or 'main event' races on a weekend.........but I might start a Saturday thinking I'll bet in three races, win a few quid, and then have a crack in some others to play it up, instead of sticking to my original inclination and trousering the profit. Only just starting to look at a 14-runner 0-125 handicap hurdle 5 minutes before the off, isn't particularly wise as an approach.

Losing runs are for ignoring, imo. Keep doing the basics right, and these will always self-correct eventually.
 
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2017diary said:
With you on that one Jon. Wasn't it Slim who had something like................Get the value & lose, it's what we do
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Slim is my personal Jesus, and I retain this quote in my auto-signature as an ongoing act of homage and prostration.
 
Euronymous said:
I think i've managed to eliminate all the usual bad habits punters have but my one weakness is still not having enough on. I've been even worse this year but I haven't worked since the end of January so the mindset with little income coming in (just a small railway pension) has been challenging. Fortunately my ROI has been 3 or 4 % points above the usual and my Crypto investment is looking good so it looks like retirement (at least from full time work permanent work) is feasible.
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Be careful with the Crypto, Euro.
 
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I did go a bit OTT earlier in the year but I've done my research and I have investments in the right places. I had to do something though, one can't just leave five figure sums in the bank anymore - nothing happens to it.
 
Euronymous said:
I did go a bit OTT earlier in the year but I've done my research and I have investments in the right places. I had to do something though, one can't just leave five figure sums in the bank anymore - nothing happens to it.
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Haha. Class.
 
Euronymous said:
I had to do something though, one can't just leave five figure sums in the bank anymore - nothing happens to it.
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True. I hate banks for how they're screwing us.

Property is absolutely booming these days, certainly up here, following a rather lengthy flat spell following the 2008 crash. We invested Mrs O's retirement lump sum in paying off the mortgage on our flat in the west end of Glasgow and it has risen about £60k (40%?) in value in the last year or two. That's report value. The flats in that area are fetching well above home report values.
 
Euronymous said:
I did go a bit OTT earlier in the year but I've done my research and I have investments in the right places. I had to do something though, one can't just leave five figure sums in the bank anymore - nothing happens to it.
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In this type of position, anybody who’s still working but is within say 10 years (or more if they can afford it) of reaching a retireable age should consider putting as much of their income as possible into their pension, if need be living off those savings which aren’t earning money. £40K limit per year but you can use up to 3 years previous allowance if you didn’t max them.

For as long as the government allow us 40% relief on pension contributions there’s no investment that will come close to that return.

I know people who borrow money at what is currently a low rate, only to invest it into a pension.

You just need to understand that once you retire and start drawing it down, to do so in a managed fashion that maximises your tax allowance, e.g withdrawing an amount to keep your annual income less than c. £40K per year will ensure you don’t give the saved tax back. Even better if you can make it less to reduce the 20% taxed amount.
 
wilsonl said:
In this type of position, anybody who’s still working but is within say 10 years (or more if they can afford it) of reaching a retireable age should consider putting as much of their income as possible into their pension, if need be living off those savings which aren’t earning money. £40K limit per year but you can use up to 3 years previous allowance if you didn’t max them.

For as long as the government allow us 40% relief on pension contributions there’s no investment that will come close to that return.

I know people who borrow money at what is currently a low rate, only to invest it into a pension.

You just need to understand that once you retire and start drawing it down, to do so in a managed fashion that maximises your tax allowance, e.g withdrawing an amount to keep your annual income less than c. £40K per year will ensure you don’t give the saved tax back. Even better if you can make it less to reduce the 20% taxed amount.
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Use this to the max ,for a certain bet this will be reduced to a 20% allowance or lower tax rate within the next few years.
 
Not sure yet if this is a bad habit or not but I have recently started to look at my selections about midnight and asking for a price about half as big again as my tissue.
last night it was 4pm at Epsom and my selection was Eaton Blue, my tissue 7/2 or 4 on Betfair. I put a price of 6 in and looked about 2:30 am and I decided to take 5.7. Imagine my chagrin when I looked early morning and saw 10! I decided to let it run. Very strange betting all day, up and down like a fan dancers knickers and finished third at 4/1.
 
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I’m fast approaching twenty losers, so I’m getting a bit twitchy!
Do I back shorter than normal prices, in the hope of breaking the run, or longer than normal to recover losses?
I should just carry on as usual but can I maintain the discipline?
 
Walsworth
Try this for your next few wagers:
Write down your reasons for betting the horse - sticking to proven form, rather than wishful thinking - and anakyse each bet after the race. to establish where you were right or wrong.
If all else fails, at least you'll begin to improve your reading of form.
 
I am not the best reader of form to be honest, I find it difficult to read between the lines and invariably come to the conclusion that the favourite is a good thing!
Then I proceed to back the 2nd or 3rd fav looking for value, even laying the fav occasionally.
 
walsworth said:
I am not the best reader of form to be honest, I find it difficult to read between the lines and invariably come to the conclusion that the favourite is a good thing!
Then I proceed to back the 2nd or 3rd fav looking for value, even laying the fav occasionally.
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With respect W, I'd suggest 'value' is a judgement call, and not something made lightly, until you've got properly got to grips with form.
 
reet hard said:
With respect W, I'd suggest 'value' is a judgement call, and not something made lightly, until you've got properly got to grips with form.
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Agree. Mind you, best on form is one thing, ready to run up to it is something else entirely :)
 
Having a grasp of the form book is a fundamental to successful betting, imo, and reet offers sound advice - it's very difficult to make the game pay, if you can't interpret form with a fair degree of accuracy. I think this is largely the reason why so many people I know have dabbled in horse-race betting, but eventually packed it in to concentrate on Football - they just can't get their head around the formbook......or at least, they don't have the inclination (or time) to familiarise themselves with it.

Walsworth, it may be best concentrating on higher-class races for a while. The back-form can usually be trusted to a greater extent, and better horses are generally more likely to give their running. Developing a feel for the form pre-and-post race in these better races, might help you better assimilate it for lower-class races.
 
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I couldn’t say if it would apply equally to the Flat, Col bach, but as a general principle, I imagine it probably would.

F1 season is going great guns, though would have been marginally better if Verstappen hadn’t unnecessarily wiped-out Hamilton at the weekend.
 
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