Bayes Theorm

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Bruce_Savage

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I was just wondering if anyone used Bayes Therom in their selection of a horses chance?

What success rate have you had?
 
I understand Bayes Therom is a member of the cabinet in Israel, and doesn't know much about racing
 
Theorm, Therom, Therum - look, chaps, if you really must pursue this absurdity, please spell it correctly. It's Ockum's Razor, actually, but applied to short-odds drifters in 3 and 4 y.o. handicaps between 5 and 8f. For distance horses, see St Ignatius's Probity, where it is posited that if distance equals weight, then weight does not matter.

No, no, don't thank me. It's entirely my pleasure to be of help to you all.
 
I'm currently posting from 3G on my Virgin train so forgive me if there are any spelling troubles.

Bayes Theorm is actually about probability, I haven't got my text book with me but I know the formula in my head although it would be a bit of hard work given I'm on a train with little battery

Thoughts?
 
Bruce_Savage said:
I was just wondering if anyone used Bayes Therom in their selection of a horses chance?

What success rate have you had?
Click to expand...

Are you referring to the Bayesian interpretation of his theorem or the frequentist interpretation?

I use both, all the time and simultaneously.
 
I thought the frequentist interpretation has been largely dismissed as a faux premise by the French logician, Duc Louis de Charlatan, Grey? And surely, if we're talking theorems (and who isn't these days?) Buffo's exposition of time x distance x weight has replaced pretty much all of these in the post-turf era? His reductive phenomenological discourse was certainly one of the most germane - if not the most rationally perceptive - empiricks qutiques I've read in a long time. Would you not agree?
 
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Given your status as a member of personnel at the very epicentre in England of the post-turf era, I can only sit at your knee and imbibe your wisdom.
 
That'll be £25, guv. (And £50 more if you want to actually sit on my knee.)
 
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I'd hope so - bad enough there are too many dangling participles and split infinitives without adding careless prepositions to the mix.
 
I thought you usually went for the fluffiest tail and the pinkiest colours, Troods?
 
I hear you've fair cleared out the Katie Price range of equine accessories, Troods, and that 'Red' looks like a giant helping of candy floss when she appears at shows. No more than a princess deserves, of course, and such a nice change from the usual boring lack of colour currently dressing horses. Personally, I'd like to see them attired in Burberry check at NH meetings (if it has lost its chav image by now - if not, save that for when Great Leighs re-opens), and in clan tartans up at Ayr and Hamilton. Why aren't their rugs and bandages in the same colours as their jockeys' silks? No imagination there - surely a nice little business opportunity for someone?

(I think Brucie overlooked Neighs Theorem, too, where the amount of squealing and calling colts do in the parade ring usually takes the buzz out of them for running a focussed race. There's also the useful Greys Principle, where, given that greys like to run in pairs - see the finish of the 2.30 at Hereford yesterday for proof - it is posited that these should always be backed as one.)
 
Grey said:
Are you referring to the Bayesian interpretation of his theorem or the frequentist interpretation?

I use both, all the time and simultaneously.
Click to expand...

Anyway,

Hi Grey, yes I'm talking about the Bayesian interpretation.
 
Given the inability of the Reverend Bayes to win the Scoop6 even once, I'm wary of using his fancy theorem for profit myself.
 
You must take into account that him what's got The Scottish Play named after him had a dog, whose name I cannot remember, but I'm sure it's relevant to this discussion?
 
That'll be Toto, Walsy:

Macbeth: "For verily, forsooth, my faithfulle and noble hound, we are not in Kansas any more... "
 
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Was that when he went to lecture on casting pearls before Hawgs?

(I'm sorry, it seems that once again a serious topic has been hijacked by idle frivolity.)

But before I forget, there's also Day's Theorem, a useful tool for calculating the solar/lunar rhythms of horses running on artificial surfaces by day, or under floodlights at night. Some surprising time differences there!

In case anyone is reading this - if, indeed, anyone has persevered with such a weighty subject to this point - it may also be worth reviving the long-forgotten debate regarding circadian rhythms and prime performances. Overlooked, one feels, at one's peril, particularly when examining the puntability of Southern Hemispheric horses (think of CHOISIR, for one glittering example) campaigning in the Northern one. Or, for that matter, Northern Hemisphere animals campaigning in the Far East, when the rapid change in ionic pressure has been expostulated in Vouvray's sparkling Essays on animal physiognomy vs external influences. No serious racing library is complete without these, I venture.
 
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