Beat the Banker

Tanlic

Tanlic

Senior Jockey
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Quevega, Sprinter Sacre, Hurricane Fly, Long Run and Big Buck's

Many of you will be hoping none of the above get beat but if you had to lay one which would you go for?

We all know the positives but it's the negatives, if any we need to highlight.

I'll go for Hurricane Fly depsite him doing just about everything ever asked of him, in reality he has spent most of his life beating Solwhit and Thousand Stars who are well short of Champion Hurdle class

I am not totally convinced even with Grandouet and Spirit Son gone, that this is still not a better Champion Hurdle than last year.

At 2 miles last years 3rd Oscar Whisky wouldn't get an in form Binocular off the bridle and the 2nd Peddler's Cross has fairly moderate form over the trip.
His win over Starluck by 1/14 lengths is pretty ordinary by Champion Hurdle standards.

Despite that he ran a great race in the CH last season but not without getting a thorough hiding rom Jason McGuire who hit him as hard as he could a total of 14 times from the top of the hill. That came as no surprise as he is much more about staying than he is about speed.

At the end of the day it could be said Hurricane Fly beat two horses both running at the wrong trip.

This year he has to contend with another horse who's best form is at further. Oscar's Well an unlucky loser in the Neptune but he is obvuiusly being trained for this and this only and on his day couuld easily be as good as Peddler's Cross


But the real dangers have got to be the real 2 milers. I think it's fair to say he'll find the Binocular he will face at Cheltenham will be a different Binocular than the one he beat in Ireland. He looked as good as ever in his last race and Nicky Henderson is a genius at geting them spot on for the big day.

The Betfair Hurdle winner Zarkandar is abit of an unknown but he is a genuine 2 milier unlike Peddler's Cross. He was said to have a snotty nose and trouble breathing which caused him to struggle mid race but once he picked up he still won well.

My worry is Hurricane Fly could end up between a rock and a hard place. He won't want to be giving Binocular top big a lead going down the hill and if he goes too soon he could end up being a sitting duck for Zarkandar who has bags of speed and if it comes down to a fight won't lie down as we saw at Newbury.

I could see Hurricane Fly just being run out of this. He's an esceptionally good horse but Peddlers Cross got way too close to him last season and one of this pair of genuine 2 milers could just scrape home in front of him.
 
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HF for me as well. more likeley in my mind that he will get beat than any of the others, though the next most likely one there is Big Bucks....
 
HF cert, BB cert, Quevega cert. SS is a novice so anything can happen. Long Run is sketchy..
 
Long Run

if you watch it beating Burton Port its obvious which of the two are the better horse nowadays

if the roles were reversed and it was LR coming off a lay off..ridden as tenderly as BP..folk would be guranteeing it reversing the form..whereas BP is being overlooked..it was clear that BP could have passed LR but they saved it for another day..the most important one

Burton Port is my nap of the festival by some way
 
Burton Port doesn't respond for pressure and using any force would have been counter intuitive especially of a break.

If Burton Port hit the front like Long Run and Long Run had to chase him down then he would of gone away by 10 lengths.
 
Big Bucks has apparently run to an Official Rating of 174 in his last 12 races, and will be attempting to do it for a 13th time next week. I wonder are there any comparisons to be made in terms of running to the same mark for so long, nearly three years in fact?

I'm a bit sceptical myself. He beat Dynaste 19 lengths at Haydock, then 7 lengths (giving 4 pound at Cheltenham) and was given exactly the same rating, the magic 174. There's no doubt the Pipe horse has improved from the first try against the champ to the second try, but I'd have thought (without being a ratings expert) that Dynaste is more of a 165+ horse at present than the tad shy rating of 161 given to him after the Cleeve Hurdle.

Mourad and Restless Harry have both franked that form nicely, and as I say, if Big Bucks doesn't punch at his usual weight and Dynaste can find that improvement that I think he's every chance of doing, then at a minimum he could at least give Big Bucks something to think about.

Re The Gold Cup I'm still not sure what to make of Long Run. He looks like the win well or be pulled up type.
 
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EC1 said:
Long Run

if you watch it beating Burton Port its obvious which of the two are the better horse nowadays

if the roles were reversed and it was LR coming off a lay off..ridden as tenderly as BP..folk would be guranteeing it reversing the form..whereas BP is being overlooked..it was clear that BP could have passed LR but they saved it for another day..the most important one

Burton Port is my nap of the festival by some way
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I thought this until I realised Long Run was giving Burton Point 10lb
 
If Long Run doesn't win the Gold Cup without Kauto Star then I think the public will lose all interest in him and the horse was fraud.

No one would seriously consider putting big cash on the horse at short prices unless he had some level of consistancy.
 
So Young could be anything and if he lines up in the World Hurdle and stays 3m then he could be the biggest danger to the legend.
 
Tanlic said:
At 2 miles last years 3rd Oscar Whisky wouldn't get an in form Binocular off the bridle...
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Oscar Whisky couldn't get Hurricane Fly off the bridle, if he joined the race four-out.

...and the 2nd Peddler's Cross has fairly moderate form over the trip.
His win over Starluck by 1/14 lengths is pretty ordinary by Champion Hurdle standards.
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...with Binocular in behind that day.

Despite that he ran a great race in the CH last season but not without getting a thorough hiding rom Jason McGuire who hit him as hard as he could a total of 14 times from the top of the hill. That came as no surprise as he is much more about staying than he is about speed.
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Stamina is a requirement in top-end Champion Hurdlers, IMO. The best renewals are won by animals who want an end-to-end, strongly-run, gallop, over a stiff 2m - it's not like poncing round Wincanton.

At the end of the day it could be said Hurricane Fly beat two horses both running at the wrong trip.
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It could, but it would be wrong.

But the real dangers have got to be the real 2 milers. I think it's fair to say he'll find the Binocular he will face at Cheltenham will be a different Binocular than the one he beat in Ireland. He looked as good as ever in his last race and Nicky Henderson is a genius at geting them spot on for the big day.
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Binocular's connections will be worrying a lot more than Hurricane Fly's. It's the former who has it to prove- not the latter.

My worry is Hurricane Fly could end up between a rock and a hard place. He won't want to be giving Binocular top big a lead going down the hill and if he goes too soon he could end up being a sitting duck for Zarkandar who has bags of speed and if it comes down to a fight won't lie down as we saw at Newbury.
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Hurricane Fly has a bettern turn-of-foot than Binocular, and he has no stamina concerns. He will run his race regardless of tactics.
 
Would be a lay Sprinter Sacre for me - the others are all proven CD winners and proven in the grade, SS impressive as he was LTO was beaten over the course last season by a horse he re-opposes at Cheltenham.

Martin
 
It would be Long Run followed by hurricane Fly for me. I really didnt like LR's last performance and running like that whilst slipping back into the habit of clipping a few could see him beat by anything. As for HF, i still think there was a real zip about Binocular last time which we havent seen for a while and as excellent and in form as Hf appears to be, fragility doesnt entirely go away. What exactly was wrong with him in the autumn?
 
The Arkle is shorter than the Supreme and the lack of momentum the horse had after poorly jumping the last two flights won't be a factor over fences.

I think he's more solid than Big Bucks who has been at it once or twice this year and won his last two races through out battling stayers. Like he did last year. Oscar Whisky brings a different challenge and if they go as slow as last year I can see him being done on the line for speed.
 
Is Fortina 1958-1961 the only horse to complete the Arkle-Chanpion Chase-Champion Chase treble 3 years in a row? I'm second guessing myself but pretty confident I'm right.
 
swedish chef said:
I thought this until I realised Long Run was giving Burton Point 10lb
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LR was match fit..add in the fact that had BP been ridden to win he would have done so by 3 or 4 lengths imo...doesn't leave BP much to find...thats if weight carried means owt..some people think it means bugger all depending how easy it is for said horse to carry weight

agree if at levels it would have been more telling..but there is no way they tried to pass LR in this race with BP
 
I'd be a Sprinter Sacre layer at the prices. Two reasons:

-The doubts about him getting up the hill might well be a complete red herring (much as they were for Binocular after he apparently failed to get up the hill in the Supreme), but those who dismiss them still have no actual evidence to back up their assertions.

-I would be slightly concerned that he may prove less than tractable and just might end up going a shade harder than ideal with Tizzard sure to be giving him no quarter on Cue Card.
 
clivex said:
It would be Long Run followed by hurricane Fly for me. I really didnt like LR's last performance and running like that whilst slipping back into the habit of clipping a few could see him beat by anything. As for HF, i still think there was a real zip about Binocular last time which we havent seen for a while and as excellent and in form as Hf appears to be, fragility doesnt entirely go away. What exactly was wrong with him in the autumn?
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Came to himself late, rather than having a sick-note. Mullins says he's too enthusiastic, so they take it softly-softly with his training regime; undoubtedly in response to how tricky he has been to get right in previous years. I'm more concerned about random stone-bruises, than I am about Hurricane Fly missing the Festival due to failing to recover from his Leopardstown 'exertions'.

I think all of the jollies are pretty-solid, but if forced I'd probably side against Sizing Europe (age grounds only) and Quevega (mainly because bints can lose their form in a heart-beat). I don't really expect either to get beat though.
 
If you listen to some you'd believe that Henderson has had 3 Champion Hurdle winners in his yard this year, first it was Spirits Son this that & the other, then he bit the dust to be replaced by the mighty Grandoeut, who promptly joined him with a sick note. Now we're told it was Binocular really that Hurricane Fly has to fear? The sound of straws desperately being grasped echoes round the Champion Hurdle discussions.

Sit back, enjoy the Hurricane Fly.
 
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Steve T said:
If you listen to some you'd believe that Henderson has had 3 Champion Hurdle winners in his yard this year, first it was Spirits Son this that & the other, then he bit the dust to be replaced by the mighty Grandoeut, who promptly joined him with a sick note. Now we're told it was Binocular really that Hurricane Fly has to fear? The sound of straws desperately being grasped echoes round the Champion Hurdle discussions.

Sit back, enjoy the Hurricane Fly.
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No one is asking you to believe anything Steve it's only reasons why Hurricane Fly might get beat.We all know he's fav and has the best chance of winning so I'm deducting 2 pts from you for losing the plot:D Dont worry you don't get the dunce cap that goes to Grassy he can't help himself being HF's no 1 fan

Now what's your banker to get beat or don't you have one?
 
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