Beat the Banker

Long run for me firstly-hasn't improved for me,wasn't impressed lto.
Big bucks-at he price he is and there are so many unknowns in the race......Oscar whiskey,so young,even dynaste being held up.can see more than one taking him on.

As for the others....Sprinter Sacre could be the next coming,I think he is very special.I don't think they will gt him off the bridal for him not to stay up the hill.I wouldn't wanna be laying the fly with stolen money let alone mine.nailed on.
 
trackside528 said:
I'd be a Sprinter Sacre layer at the prices. Two reasons:

-The doubts about him getting up the hill might well be a complete red herring (much as they were for Binocular after he apparently failed to get up the hill in the Supreme), but those who dismiss them still have no actual evidence to back up their assertions.

-I would be slightly concerned that he may prove less than tractable and just might end up going a shade harder than ideal with Tizzard sure to be giving him no quarter on Cue Card.
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Binocular was reported to have "grown and strengthened" for 2 seasons after not getting home in the Supreme - much the same as Sprinter Sacre has, this!
The Arkle is also less of a test than the Champion Hurdle.

On form figures, actual form, and the market, Long Run has the least chance of the big 5, though the paucity of top class opposition could be a worry for his layers.
 
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OTB said:
HF cert, BB cert, Quevega cert. SS is a novice so anything can happen. Long Run is sketchy..
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No offence, but this kind of thinking makes me laugh - whilst it may be equally as cliche to say there is no such thing as a cert, saying it about a horse who has a 50-55% chance of winning is off the scale, and add on the fact it is the Champion Hurdle and I don't know where to start. Hurricane fly may well win, as may others, but there is simply no such thing in any way, shape or form as a cert at cheltenham.

The bookies love trebles like HF, Big Bucks and Quevega for a reason...
 
I will. Saying something is a cert is a bizarre way of looking at things, regardless of the outcome. He has a good chance, but is far from unbeatable (i.e., a cert).
 
Hamm said:
I will. Saying something is a cert is a bizarre way of looking at things, regardless of the outcome. He has a good chance, but is far from unbeatable (i.e., a cert).
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FFS Hamm Its an expression. OK. For clarity there is no such thing as a cert. Those three mentioned as the closest you will get to being unbeatable at a Cheltenham Festival.
 
All you can ever do at the Festival, more so than anywhere else, is talk about good and bad value. They can all be beaten. Arkle was the closest thing to a so-called cert I've seen at Cheltenham and even he put down smashed through the packed birch on his third success. How he stayed on his feet and romped home I'll never know.

Big Bucks is the closest we've seen to a good thing in recent years, but this time at the prices I'm very happy to take him on.
 
OTB said:
FFS Hamm Its an expression. OK. For clarity there is no such thing as a cert. Those three mentioned as the closest you will get to being unbeatable at a Cheltenham Festival.
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It's not an expression I would ever use. It is highly, HIGHLY likely all 3 won't all win, hence to use the word 'cert' is a strange way of looking at things. The combined odds of all 3 winning are 2.6/1, hence the odds strongly indicate all 3 won't win. If these 3 are certs, you must have your house and more on this treble? :D
 
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Hamm said:
It's not an expression I would ever use. It is highly, HIGHLY likely all 3 won't all win, hence to use the word 'cert' is a strange way of looking at things. The combined odds of all 3 winning are 2.6/1, hence the odds strongly indicate all 3 won't win. If these 3 are certs, you must have your house and more on this treble? :D
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Didn't you say that Sprinter Sacre was a 'lock' a while ago, which is an American way of saying cert?

Although I'd agree that SS seems a bracket clear of other novices in his division. I'd certainly make him a much stronger chance of winning the Arkle than HF has of the Champion Hurdle.
 
I didn't realise that - I thought it meant locked on to win, which i think he is but far from certain to do it.
 
The one that makes least appeal at the prices for me is Big Buck's. Simply because we can't be sure what we are dealing with in regards opposition to him. Hurricane Fly and Sizing Europe, we have a clear idea as to the merits, likelihood of improvement of the opposition but with Oscar Whisky, it's harder. Particularly if the jocks turn the race into a test of speed like they did last year. Oscar Whisky is a proper Grade 1 standard hurdler at 2m, 2 1/2m, it's possible that the race could suit him better than Big Buck's.
 
davidjohnson said:
The one that makes least appeal at the prices for me is Big Buck's. Simply because we can't be sure what we are dealing with in regards opposition to him. Hurricane Fly and Sizing Europe, we have a clear idea as to the merits, likelihood of improvement of the opposition but with Oscar Whisky, it's harder. Particularly if the jocks turn the race into a test of speed like they did last year. Oscar Whisky is a proper Grade 1 standard hurdler at 2m, 2 1/2m, it's possible that the race could suit him better than Big Buck's.
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Oscar Whisky is the one I've opposed Big Bucks with this year. I've backed him at various odds all in and NRNB and at 7/4 in the market without Big Bucks.
 
I wouldn't be surprised if any of them got beaten. I will be closest to surprise if Quevega gets beaten. I would be least surprised if Long Run gets beaten.
 
trackside528 said:
I'd be a Sprinter Sacre layer at the prices. Two reasons:

-The doubts about him getting up the hill might well be a complete red herring (much as they were for Binocular after he apparently failed to get up the hill in the Supreme), but those who dismiss them still have no actual evidence to back up their assertions.

-I would be slightly concerned that he may prove less than tractable and just might end up going a shade harder than ideal with Tizzard sure to be giving him no quarter on Cue Card.
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You are not the first to be concerned about the Cheltenham Hill for Sprinter Sacre but why? Sprinter Sacre was already beaten as he jumped the last and blundered. Spirit Son heaeded him and Al Ferof was easily going better and about to pass him and of course did.

The hill had absolutely nothing do with his defeat he was already goosed when hitting the rising ground
 
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