Becher Chase

A

Arial_Ortega

At the Start
Joined
Nov 12, 2008
Messages
82
Who is gonna win?

1 9731-7 Alright Now M´Lad Jonjo O´Neill 8 129 135 135 1-4 0-2
2 -1P641 Always Waining P Bowen 7 147 150 149 1-5 0-2
3 43-443 A New Story Michael Hourigan 10 130 127 0-2 0-1
4 132-35 Bafana Boy J Howard Johnson 8 125 - - 1-6 0-1
5 955-37 Bannister Lane D McCain Jnr 8 121 127 81 0-7 1-2
6 20F2-P Black Apalachi D T Hughes 9 138 93 0-0 0-0
7 532F-1 Ellerslie George J Howard Johnson 8 121 127 108 0-2 1-2
8 P20-51 Faasel N G Richards 7 150 154 154 1-7 0-1
9 641P-4 Finzi M J Scudamore 10 106 110 97 1-8 2-13
10 6115-3 Gungadu P F Nicholls 8 159 162 138 2-8 0-0
11 0571-5 Hear The Echo M F Morris 7 148 74 0-0 0-0
12 8011-P Himalayan Trail James Joseph Mangan 9 141 145 140 1-3 1-1
13 5750-2 Idle Talk D McCain Jnr 9 140 144 131 2-7 1-6
14 6526-4 Irish Raptor N A Twiston-Davies 9 138 142 144 2-12 2-5
15 U-8033 Iron Man P Bowen 7 141 148 146 1-10 0-3
16 4P78-6d Ivoire De Beaulieu Ferdy Murphy 12 122 127 127 2-6 1-1
17 P230-0 Leading Man Ferdy Murphy 8 130 136 109 0-10 0-3
18 2P-P4F Le Toscan M J Scudamore 8 136 134 126 0-0 0-0
19 33P1-5 Monkerhostin P J Hobbs 11 155 163 155 2-10 0-3
20 416P-6 Mr Pointment P F Nicholls 9 153 163 118 3-5 1-2
21 2/40-0 Noir Et Vert Ferdy Murphy 7 128 125 67 0-1 0-1
22 -50120 Oulart D T Hughes 9 131 130 0-2 0-0
23 U1-525 Out The Black P J Hobbs 10 132 137 96 1-1 0-4
24 3/54-1 Parsons Legacy P J Hobbs 10 146 153 141 2-8 1-8
25 2BU5-9 Philson Run Mrs S Leech 12 130 143 140 1-6 2-4
26 P-6190 Scalloway Carl Llewellyn 8 130 132 107 0-0 0-0
27 25F/06 Southern Vic T M Walsh 9 - - 0-0 0-0
28 17123- Tom Sayers P J Hobbs 10 134 - - 1-8 2-8
 
Some stats, I know they are there to be broken but usually a good guide.

2 or less current runs so far this season
6 of last 10 winners under 11st
8 of last 10 aged 8 to 10
10 of last 15 finished in the first 3 last start
 
That all points to Idle Talk by the looks of things Arial - wouldn't fancy his jumping over the big fences again though.

A few things to think about with the National in mind:

Form over the big fences helps
Beaten horses in the National have a poor record when attempting to follow up.


Personally think if Walsh has got to the bottom of his problems that Southern Vic will go well over these fences (watch him fall at first Valentines now).
 
Ted Walsh has mentioned he has thought of Southern Vic as a national horse. He has had his spin over hurldles in the Lismullen Hurdle so if he travels id give him a good e/w shout
 
Irish Stamp said:
That all points to Idle Talk by the looks of things Arial - wouldn't fancy his jumping over the big fences again though.

Personally think if Walsh has got to the bottom of his problems that Southern Vic will go well over these fences (watch him fall at first Valentines now).
Click to expand...

Yes I think that SV (25s good ew bet imo) will progress over fences this season along with Black Apalachi (discount for this being aimed at big one) and Himalayan Trail.

Jimmy Mangan, trainer of Himalayan Trail:

"The whole idea behind purchasing him was to go for the John Smith's Grand National. I think it's vital to give them a little trip over the course and I think the Becher Chase is the ideal opportunity. He's improved mentally since Cork so I'm hoping for a very big run out of him."

I also believe that Hear the Echo is going for a sighter as they wont want to ruin his mark for the big one and will then switch to hurdles for his other runs. In contrast I know the connections of a New Story think they need to win this to have a chance of getting into the big one so another one that is interesting.

I also like the look of Irish Raptor he is the one for me at this stage.
 
Thanks guys.

Gungadu more likely to go for this than the Betfair according to the RP - good news for the Becher but only 2 horses rated 160+ in the big Grade 1 Chase of the early part of the season is annoying.
 
Mr Pointment's for the taking. I still cannot believe that Nicholls wasn't hauled in for his 'pipe-opening' run over hurdles at Chepstow; it was one of the most blatant pieces of schooling in public I have seen in a long time. The horse was allowed to donder around towards the rear in his own time and even when still travelling well was allowed to wander back as he liked without the slightest question being asked of him - a nice little schooling gallop to put him spot on for Liverpool.
 
Ha ha!

It's still my opinion that the animal was only there for a nice little spin around, I thought it was disgraceful.
 
Oulart jumped out to me. I think Timbera was rated around 130 when Dessie Hughes mapped him out for a tilt at the National.
 
If the Murphy team can find some form & he runs,Leading Man - Looked as bright as a button in the paddock at Wetherby last Saturday & although a long way behind on his seasonal re-appearance (which he usually needs anyway) under a 5lb claimer, if he goes for the race I would be keen to back him. He also ran on Saturday without the usual tongue tie & cheekpieces which is worth bearing in mind.
 
I know its not Naven but I've gone in and laid Mr Pointment heavily between 5.8 and 6.2, just cant have him, didn't show enough on comeback and miles higher than his last win. Just can't have him and prefer Gungadu of the stables pairing.

Have had 2 small bets on Idle Talk and Philson Run at good prices, just feel overpriced and reports on the former says his jumping has massively improved over the summer, if thats the case he's a very well handicapped horse.

Will be a great result as long as Mr Pointment is turned over.
 
Feel a bit lucky there, was bit worried 3 out lol

Bizare from MR P, tried to pull himself up along the run in, then when oulart headed him, took off again, weird. lol
 
Not quoted in any lists yet. Off 130 I'd imagine he would be at the foot of the handicap. These days the race seems to favour better class of horses but I think he is better than a 130 horse. If I saw a fancy price I'd have a go.
 
If any of the first three from the Betfair Chase are still in with a shot of the Million, there could be a very high (160+) top-weight.
 
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