Best Bet of 2009

Just because its on the first day of the year doesn't mean it won't be the bet of the year. King Harald in the 1.05 at Cheltenham. I've been waiting nearly a year for this one.Circa 20/1.
 
First hangover-induced miss of the year: Cockleshell Road at Fairyhouse today.

15/8 on course at one stage as well.
 
I am risking the wrath of Shadow because I can't quote any prices, but I think that
Plumania


will win the French Oaks.
 
Flame said:
Andrea Atzeni champion apprentice
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I'd agree with that saving David Probert - he hasn't ridden out his claim yet has he? So he'll be eligible again just as Wm Buick was this year, and he's getting on a better class of horse already compared to Atzeni, though that will change when the turf season starts no doubt!
 
Irish Stamp said:
Most foreign horses then Luke. There's a theory we seem to have in the UK (and from the bookies point of view it makes sense) that our horses are superior (a bookie probably won't lay anything other than the British horses - same in French races, Italian races etc.) If you find a good horse from a smaller nation ie. Germany, Spain, Italy etc. or a smaller trainer then you'll be on to a winner.

Take Maurice Delcher-Sanchez, a Spanish trainer. He's run 3 horses in Group 1 races (not individual G1's just generally), Suances won the Prix Jean Prat (his first G1 start), Equiano won the Kings Stand (his first G1 start) and Bannaby (his first G1 start was a win in the Prix Du Cadran). He was also something to do with Royal Gait I believe (my brief understanding of a Spanish TV feature on him).
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Getting back to the original statement that all foreign trained horses are overpriced-if that was the case they would be showing a level stakes profit.I doubt this very much.
 
LUKE said:
Getting back to the original statement that all foreign trained horses are overpriced-if that was the case they would be showing a level stakes profit.I doubt this very much.
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I'd like to see the stats, I reckon you would be myself.
 
The 66/1 winner at Kempton last week would distort the jump season figures.I would be surprised if you would be in profit for the flat season.
 
Nick Mordin - Betting for a Living

<excerpt>

System 2 - Bet the foreigner

Rules Bet any UK-trained horse older than three when it runs in France or Ireland

Results From January 1997 to August 2002

Bets 656
Wins 139 (21.2%)
Profit to £1 level-stake £308.80 (47.1%)

Reasoning
Punters everywhere under-rate the chance of foreign horses. Older British horses tend to be better than those in Ireland and France because the better ones aren't retired to stud as often (due to their largely uncommercial pedigrees). Various studies show you can also make money betting French runners in Britain, European runners in America, German runners in Italy etc. The basic principal behind the system seems to have universal application.

</excerpt>
 
I know that is slightly different to what we are discussing (bar the various studies bit) but I thought it was interesting nonetheless.
 
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