Betfair Hurdle 2024

Desert Orchid

Desert Orchid

Senior Jockey
Joined
Aug 2, 2005
Messages
25,780
I'm aware we've been posting stuff on two or three threads so I thought I'd try and draw a few strings together.

Over the last two or three weeks I've been trying to get more of a handle on the form ahead of the festival so I've spent more time on the form than for the best part of a year.

Having spent quite a bit of time this week on this race, I'm now getting underwhelmed. It's maybe the doubts about what might go best in the heavy ground or even the prospect of more withdrawals than a convent dormitory after lights out...

You'll probably have to scroll across this to see all the figures and I wouldn't claim to be completely confident in them but they've found me Ga Law, Annual Invictus and Inis Oirr in the last couple of weeks so I'm getting there.

Here are my figures for the race and, below, some musings. The BO (Best odds) are as they were yesterday afternoon/evening when I was putting the figures together.

[TABLE="width: 1093"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Form[/TD]
[TD]Horse[/TD]
[TD]*[/TD]
[TD]Stats[/TD]
[TD]Weight[/TD]
[TD]Trainer[/TD]
[TD]Jockey[/TD]
[TD]OR[/TD]
[TD]MON
152+[/TD]
[TD]Notes[/TD]
[TD]RPR[/TD]
[TD]BO[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1-6P28 [/TD]
[TD] Faivoir [/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]C D [/TD]
[TD]11-11 [/TD]
[TD]Dan Skelton [/TD]
[TD]Miss H Palin 7[/TD]
[TD]137 [/TD]
[TD]156[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]144 [/TD]
[TD]50/1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]/433-P [/TD]
[TD] L'Eau Du Sud [/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]t [/TD]
[TD]11-3 [/TD]
[TD]Dan Skelton [/TD]
[TD]Harry Skelton[/TD]
[TD]129 [/TD]
[TD]156[/TD]
[TD]nov Fr[/TD]
[TD]142 [/TD]
[TD]16/1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]480-RR [/TD]
[TD] Yorksea [/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]v [/TD]
[TD]10-11 [/TD]
[TD]Gary Moore [/TD]
[TD]Niall Houlihan[/TD]
[TD]123 [/TD]
[TD]156[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[TD]143 [/TD]
[TD]100/1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]-11553 [/TD]
[TD] Our Champ [/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]t1 D [/TD]
[TD]10-12 [/TD]
[TD]Chris Gordon [/TD]
[TD]F Gordon 5[/TD]
[TD]124 [/TD]
[TD]155[/TD]
[TD]? p[/TD]
[TD]147 [/TD]
[TD]40/1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]471-P1 [/TD]
[TD] Ocastle Des Mottes [/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]11-7 [/TD]
[TD]W P Mullins[/TD]
[TD]Daryl Jacob[/TD]
[TD]133 [/TD]
[TD]153[/TD]
[TD]? Fr nov[/TD]
[TD]130 [/TD]
[TD]5/1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]-11122 [/TD]
[TD] Lookaway [/TD]
[TD]2,3[/TD]
[TD]C D [/TD]
[TD]11-11 [/TD]
[TD]Neil King [/TD]
[TD]Jack Quinlan[/TD]
[TD]137 [/TD]
[TD]151[/TD]
[TD]p nov1[/TD]
[TD]145 [/TD]
[TD]11/1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F12-17 [/TD]
[TD] Iberico Lord [/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]D bf [/TD]
[TD]11-8 [/TD]
[TD]N Henderson [/TD]
[TD]N de Boinville[/TD]
[TD]134 [/TD]
[TD]151[/TD]
[TD]p nov[/TD]
[TD]147 [/TD]
[TD]6/1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]229-17 [/TD]
[TD]Knickerbockerglory [/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]D [/TD]
[TD]11-11 [/TD]
[TD]Dan Skelton [/TD]
[TD]T Durrell 3[/TD]
[TD]137 [/TD]
[TD]150[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[TD]146 [/TD]
[TD]40/1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]011-72 [/TD]
[TD] Under Control [/TD]
[TD]1,4[/TD]
[TD]CD [/TD]
[TD]11-11 [/TD]
[TD]N Henderson [/TD]
[TD]J O'Neill Jr[/TD]
[TD]137 [/TD]
[TD]150[/TD]
[TD]+p nov[/TD]
[TD]140 [/TD]
[TD]16/1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]119-23 [/TD]
[TD] Altobelli [/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]t D [/TD]
[TD]11-6 [/TD]
[TD]Harry Fry [/TD]
[TD]J Burke[/TD]
[TD]132 [/TD]
[TD]150[/TD]
[TD]+p[/TD]
[TD]148 [/TD]
[TD]15/2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]-2223P [/TD]
[TD] Jilaijone [/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]t [/TD]
[TD]10-13 [/TD]
[TD]David Pipe [/TD]
[TD]Jack Tudor[/TD]
[TD]125 [/TD]
[TD]150[/TD]
[TD]o[/TD]
[TD]140 [/TD]
[TD]50/1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]11-613 [/TD]
[TD] Brentford Hope [/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]t p1 CD bf [/TD]
[TD]11-8 [/TD]
[TD]Harry Derham [/TD]
[TD]Paul O'Brien[/TD]
[TD]134 [/TD]
[TD]149[/TD]
[TD]p +?[/TD]
[TD]143 [/TD]
[TD]14/1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]418-61 [/TD]
[TD] Go Dante [/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]t p D [/TD]
[TD]11-3 [/TD]
[TD]Olly Murphy [/TD]
[TD]Sean Bowen[/TD]
[TD]129 [/TD]
[TD]149[/TD]
[TD]?[/TD]
[TD]139 [/TD]
[TD]25/1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]-75114 [/TD]
[TD] Moveit Like Minnie [/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]t D [/TD]
[TD]10-12 [/TD]
[TD]N T-Davies [/TD]
[TD]F Lambert 5[/TD]
[TD]124 [/TD]
[TD]149[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[TD]142 [/TD]
[TD]50/1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]43-231 [/TD]
[TD] Luccia [/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]CD [/TD]
[TD]12-0 [/TD]
[TD]N Henderson [/TD]
[TD]David Bass[/TD]
[TD]140 [/TD]
[TD]148[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[TD]142 [/TD]
[TD]20/1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]111-41 [/TD]
[TD] Spirit D'Aunou [/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]D [/TD]
[TD]11-13 [/TD]
[TD]Gary Moore [/TD]
[TD]C Quinn 3[/TD]
[TD]139 [/TD]
[TD]148[/TD]
[TD]? +p v[/TD]
[TD]139 [/TD]
[TD]14/1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1/1/12 [/TD]
[TD] Doddiethegreat [/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]D [/TD]
[TD]11-6 [/TD]
[TD]N Henderson [/TD]
[TD]James Bowen[/TD]
[TD]132 [/TD]
[TD]148[/TD]
[TD]++?[/TD]
[TD]139 [/TD]
[TD]25/1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2-5146 [/TD]
[TD] Alvaniy [/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]D [/TD]
[TD]10-11 [/TD]
[TD]W P Mullins [/TD]
[TD]Bryony Frost[/TD]
[TD]123 [/TD]
[TD]148[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]132 [/TD]
[TD]40/1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3-1231 [/TD]
[TD] Donnacha [/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]D [/TD]
[TD]10-7 [/TD]
[TD]Nigel Hawke [/TD]
[TD]James Davies[/TD]
[TD]119 [/TD]
[TD]148[/TD]
[TD]p? s nov[/TD]
[TD]140 [/TD]
[TD]33/1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]13OO6 [/TD]
[TD] Onlyamatteroftime [/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]D [/TD]
[TD]10-3 [/TD]
[TD]W P Mullins [/TD]
[TD]Brian Hayes[/TD]
[TD]115 [/TD]
[TD]148[/TD]
[TD]NB?[/TD]
[TD]141 [/TD]
[TD]14/1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3-1216 [/TD]
[TD] Kamsinas [/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]D [/TD]
[TD]11-6 [/TD]
[TD]F O'Brien [/TD]
[TD]Jack Hogan 3[/TD]
[TD]132 [/TD]
[TD]147[/TD]
[TD]nov[/TD]
[TD]139 [/TD]
[TD]20/1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1-21P1 [/TD]
[TD] Tellherthename [/TD]
[TD]2,3[/TD]
[TD]D [/TD]
[TD]11-9 [/TD]
[TD]Ben Pauling [/TD]
[TD]Harry Cobden[/TD]
[TD]135 [/TD]
[TD]145[/TD]
[TD]nov1[/TD]
[TD]137 [/TD]
[TD]12/1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]12-511 [/TD]
[TD] Aurigny Mill [/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]t D [/TD]
[TD]11-6 [/TD]
[TD]Victor Dartnall [/TD]
[TD]Alan Johns[/TD]
[TD]132 [/TD]
[TD]145[/TD]
[TD]+p nov[/TD]
[TD]143 [/TD]
[TD]14/1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]-F2112 [/TD]
[TD] Norman Fletcher [/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]D bf [/TD]
[TD]11-0 [/TD]
[TD]N T-Davies [/TD]
[TD]Sam T-Davies[/TD]
[TD]126 [/TD]
[TD]145[/TD]
[TD]nov1[/TD]
[TD]136 [/TD]
[TD]28/1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]30-121 [/TD]
[TD] Ito Ditto [/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]D [/TD]
[TD]10-9 [/TD]
[TD]Nicky Martin [/TD]
[TD]Sean Houlihan[/TD]
[TD]121 [/TD]
[TD]145[/TD]
[TD]p nov[/TD]
[TD]140 [/TD]
[TD]66/1[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

*The asterisked column shows entries for the Graded races at the festival as follows: 1 – Champion Hurdle; 2 – Supreme; 3 – Baring Bingham (ex-Ballymore); 4 – Mares’ Hurdle.


I can’t see Faivoir being serious about this race with the claimer up. It’s much more likely the plan is to drop another few pounds ahead of an attempted repeat at the County Hurdle which it won last year off 134. Maybe a minimal win-only bet, just in case.

L’Eau Du Sud looks the stable’s main hope, between its decent level in France, the owners’ keenness on landing plots and Harry himself taking the ride.

Yorksea was fourth in the race last year off 126 and is rated on that form. Moore always plots up one or two for the race and I’m happy to ignore its two refusals this season; they might well have been part of the plan. Again, very minimal stakes.

I took 40/1 Our Champ earlier in the week. I’m a wee bit concerned about the going but the trainer has a terrific record in this race from few runners, including very long priced outsiders going close, and won it last year with the impressive Aucunrisque.

Ocastle Des Mottes debuts for Mullins and could be anything but his price could be better and he doesn’t have the beating of L’Eau Du Sud on those French ratings. DJ wasn’t meant to ride it but comes here with Warwick, where he had an odds-on shot, called off.

Lookaway looks a solid prospect, being a first-season novice that has been picking up experience in little races. His festival entries add to that solidity so he can’t be dismissed.

Iberico Lord looks the main hope for JP McManus and Nicky Henderson who used to target the race but has been quiet in the last ten years.

Altobelli has a good profile but the price is gone having been 12/1 when Paul Kealy put him up on Wednesday.

The other one I’ve backed is Tellherthename (NR). It’s rated on its bare form but it holds those entries and after it won last time the trainer said they would be targeting the Supreme with it, raving about its “class” and “gears galore”. It is clearly thought a long way better than 135. He suggested it might not run if it gets too soft, though, but that would get me money back anyway.

I’ll also be backing Norman Fletcher as it has a similar profile and is more than twice the price. The yard knows how to win this race and it appears to be the main hope with Sam riding. Again, worsening ground might not help, though.





Feel free to rip them apart :lol:
 
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A lot of the horses have already run against each other and Luccia seems overpriced at 20/1.
I've just listened to Pat Clooney of bet365 and he said there has been money for Yorksea and has been cut from 66s to 33s.
I wouldn't mind Aurigny Mill winning for Victor Dartnall (not renowned for hurdlers).

I've done 3.
Spirit d'aunou (main bet)
Leau du sud
Yorksea £1ew 100/1
 
Great summary, DO.

We're all thinking the same about Faivoir. Small stakes, if anything, just in case. Would be a big surprise given the riding engagements in the context of mid March, but interesting to see he's well up on your figures. We should remember here...if there was a more 'obvious' jockey riding tomorrow (and perhaps no County a month away), some of us might be already be prising up the floorboards for the pound coin jar. Likely none of us will be falling off chairs if there is a good run.

L'eau Du Sud - my own long(er) range fancy. Just worrying that the Greatwood went wrong and no known (or reported) reason.

Our Champ - seems likely the ground will scupper chances. But if Chris Gordon lets him run then maybe he knows something we don't. Actually, he's run one fair race on soft already - got done by Gifford's Churchills Boy, a potential good class Malinas handicapper (hasn't run yet this season, assume injured but could be getting lined up for a big pot in the spring). That race was over two and a half, and it's probably fair to say OC might well have won it easily if it'd been two.

Yorksea - If this is a plot (that comes off)...and the two non starts were actually part of the plot...then it's one we'll be talking about for a long time! Not hard to see him going well.

Lookaway - Would love to see him win. Won't be carrying my cash, but will definitely be getting the cheers and 'encouragement' to keep going in front at the second last (and hopefully the last)

10 others none of us should be surprised to see win.

This looks harder (or closer to call) to me than last year's race.
 
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Nicky Henderson holds Iberico Lord in very high regard and he knows what it takes to win this.

Ignore his run in the Greatwood at your peril. He should be much shorter than he is

Iberico Lord 13/2 William Hill
 
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Tanlic said:
Nicky Henderson holds Iberico Lord in very high regard and he knows what it takes to win this.

Ignore his run in the Greatwood at your peril. He should be much shorter than he is

Iberico Lord 13/2 William Hill
Click to expand...

He certainly knows what it takes to win this, Tanlic. The problem is he has thrown 17 arrows at this race in the last ten years and only had one placing. That's the level of banditry he's up against. I'm not sure I can back it at 6/1.

He's the first trainer whose entries I check when the weights come out and his #1 hope is always to be greatly feared and Iberico Lord is no different. I just wonder if the Coral Cup, which he definitely lays them out for, or the County is the real target. I also think Doddiethegreat is a serious arrow here. I can definitely back it at around 25/1. And will.
 
Gone with Brentford Hope for my new man Harry. Did a bit of replay watching and the last time he ran on ground this deep was when he ran Skalleti to within 4l in Italy.
 
Euronymous said:
Gone with Brentford Hope for my new man Harry. Did a bit of replay watching and the last time he ran on ground this deep was when he ran Skalleti to within 4l in Italy.
Click to expand...

Me, too. He was duffed up by the handicapper after his Newbury win and didn’t set the world alight in the next (Class1), but still in with a decent chance, I think.
 
Last edited:
Desert Orchid said:
He certainly knows what it takes to win this, Tanlic. The problem is he has thrown 17 arrows at this race in the last ten years and only had one placing. That's the level of banditry he's up against. I'm not sure I can back it at 6/1.

He's the first trainer whose entries I check when the weights come out and his #1 hope is always to be greatly feared and Iberico Lord is no different. I just wonder if the Coral Cup, which he definitely lays them out for, or the County is the real target. I also think Doddiethegreat is a serious arrow here. I can definitely back it at around 25/1. And will.
Click to expand...

The Betfair is almost worth the same to the winner than the Coral and the County put together Dessie........not everything is a plot and trainers simply don't stop horses in valuable races. The jockey may get a win if you can but don't give him a hard race instruction and that's about it.. Every horse in the race today wil be off for it's life.
 
Euronymous said:
Gone with Brentford Hope for my new man Harry. Did a bit of replay watching and the last time he ran on ground this deep was when he ran Skalleti to within 4l in Italy.
Click to expand...

BRENTFORD HOPE
Harry Derham
This has been Brentford Hope’s big target this season. It looks an extremely deep race, but he’s in good form. It’s the type of race he could finish in the first six and have run really really well. He’s wearing time cheekpieces today because sometimes horses can run above themselves in them first time out so we’re trying that today. Hopefully he gets a good run around.
 
I've taken the ol' blunderbuss - maybe with the emphasis on 'blunder' - to the race.

Apart from taking 40/1 Our Champ (40s) earlier in the week, I've now added:

L'Eau Du Sud 22/1, 6 places, BOG
Jilaijone 66/1, 6 places, BOG
Norman fletcher 20/1, 6 places, BOG
Doddiethegreat 25/1, 6 places, BOG

I read the RP item this morning in which Hendo has a wee rant about the UK handicapper being lenient towards the French imports compared with his Irish counterpart. If there is genuine leniency, then surely all the French imports are well handicapped. They've even managed to get L'Eeau Du Sud down a wee bit from his opening mark and he goes in the ground.

Jilaijone (looks like a fun spelling of 'gilet jaune' so it will be interesting to see how the TV people pronounce it) has been gradually working his way up the ratings without really being asked too much so it's facinating [to me] that he even turns up in this race.

NTD knows how to win this race and Norman Fletcher is surely thought a long way better than 126 for him to hold an entry in the Supreme. It goes in the ground too.

Hendo said earlier in the week that there was discussion between Nico and Bowen to decide what to ride. I suspect Nico's loyalties towards JP will have influenced his decision [notwithstanding acknowledgment of Tanlic's inside info] so Bowen might well be on the better of the two. At the relative prices, I'm happy to go with Doddiethegreat and a win would no doubt have the TV people gushing about the rugby legend.

I was thinking of covering them all with either Ocastle Des Mottes or Iberico Lord but might not bother. Going back to that Hendo rant, if Irish horses usually get a 6lbs higher mark over here wouldn't ODM be 12lbs well in? For all that, there doesn't seem to be much strength around him and it does nag me that Jacob wasn't supposed to be coming here for the ride, instead going to Warwick for a pishy odds-on shot. Maybe this is a prep for the County or Coral Cup. And for the reasons above, I don't want to splash out a heavy saver on IL.

I'll stick with the longshots and hope one or two can get a place. If one wins so much the better.
 
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Have gone with Aurigny Mill at 16’s. I’m a little bit concerned that he’s only ever gone right-handed before, but it strikes me that Vic Dartnell must think he’s in grand form, to start him off going left-handed in a race like this.

Have also included him in combo forecasts and tricasts with Knickerbockerglory, Norman Fletcher and Kamsinas, because if you can’t have a lunge in a race like this, where can you?
 
Last edited:
Grasshopper said:
have also includes him in combo forecasts and tricasts with Knickerbockerglory, Norman Fletcher and Kamsinas, because if you can’t have a linge in a race like this, where can you?
Click to expand...

Absolutely! I'm going to do likewise with my longshots. The three shortest odds should return over 13000/1 :lol: That would keep the lights on for another week.
 
Four Nonners so far. Amongst them Brentford Hope (which has me thinking twice about following the stable). Said it before, the worst part of the game is the human element. I truly despise so many of the trainers, both codes.
 
Grasshopper said:
Have gone with Aurigny Mill at 16’s. I’m a little bit concerned that he’s only ever gone right-handed before, but it strikes me that Vic Dartnell must think he’s in grand form, to start him off going left-handed in a race like this.

Have also included him in combo forecasts and tricasts with Knickerbockerglory, Norman Fletcher and Kamsinas, because if you can’t have a lunge in a race like this, where can you?
Click to expand...

Confidence in Aurigny Mill is diminishing with his price drifting. Now 18/1 and I wouldn’t be surprised to see 20/1 soon

Also on Knickerbockerglory and Lookaway


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D.Jacob rides the favourite now Warwick is off.why was he not riding it in the first place.he only had one booked ride at Warwick when I checked and that was on Up for parole for Jamie Snowden.
 
Lot to like there about Shishkin, was strong at the end and will put him spot on for the Gold cup

Won't be out the first 3
 
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