Betfair Observation

Simon

Simon

At the Start
Joined
Dec 17, 2007
Messages
1,314
I'm a novice when it comes to all this stuff but I've been watching some of the markets on this afternoon's racing on Betfair and I noticed something. I looked at the market for the 4:00 at Lingfield before the 3:30 had been run. Perfect Cracker, then favourite, was trading at 4.9 to back, then soon after the 3:30 had run came into 4.4. I then looked at the next race before the 4:00 had been run and the same happened with the favourite in that. Same with the 5:00 before and after the 4:30.

Why would this be the case or is it just a coincidence?
 
As each race becomes the next, the amount of money in the market shoots up, and the prices change accordingly?
 
Gareth Flynn said:
As each race becomes the next, the amount of money in the market shoots up, and the prices change accordingly?
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Yes but it doesn't mean the favourite is more likely to shorten. I find firms are very slow to react to the machine pre show. Favs that were 2.68 to lay can quickly be 2.96 to back. It's the time to make hay with the slow firms in the outright market and matchbets etc.

There is no golden rule or formula. You've just got to watch markets and pre empt the moves.


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Aragorn said:
Come on Neo, you must be the one....
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I done my brains on Betfair in my earlier days. You quickly learn that the market has no conscience, no bias and stops for no one. You can't and won't tame it without an advantage. It's probably the best x amount of money you'll ever do in if you understand why you lost it and why you can't expect to win on there straight up.

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I got too much into arbing, in running trading etc etc and just playing the numbers and thin margins, which I eventually realised was spoiling racing as a spectacle for me. You also take some serious, stomach churning hits and that knocks your confidence. You're playing a different game though and seem to thrive on it.

My job is too intense these days for me to focus on betting properly so I've gone back to win singles on a Saturday. And reading the CH thread on here every day :D (and the will win thread as well of course)... :ninja:
 
Aragorn said:
I got too much into arbing, in running trading etc etc and just playing the numbers and thin margins, which I eventually realised was spoiling racing as a spectacle for me. You also take some serious, stomach churning hits and that knocks your confidence. You're playing a different game though and seem to thrive on it.

My job is too intense these days for me to focus on betting properly so I've gone back to win singles on a Saturday. And reading the CH thread on here every day :D (and the will win thread as well of course)... :ninja:
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Your first paragraph is very apt. Betfair entices penny pinching to normally good risk takers. Like the child putting his palm on the stove, I took it on once, got burnt and moved on.
 
I was working in banking at the time, developing funding products so I had a hard on for the high volume/low margin way of thinking. That's when I had a run at it for a while. To be honest though, it gets pretty f***in dull. Just like bankers :D
 
Aragorn said:
I was working in banking at the time, developing funding products so I had a hard on for the high volume/low margin way of thinking. That's when I had a run at it for a while. To be honest though, it gets pretty f***in dull. Just like bankers :D
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It's soulless. Smashing up retarded bookmaker ricks is far more satisfying then greening out for €723.57.
 
Like all betting if your info is good you can certainly use it ,particularly the in running. I`ve made a few ricks but generally I am holding. Very glad its there
 
Roddy Owen said:
Like all betting if your info is good you can certainly use it ,particularly the in running. I`ve made a few ricks but generally I am holding. Very glad its there
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Especially in certain types of races where the market assumes you're not trying!
 
Anyone know why I might have market volume showing in Euros, when I have a Sterling account? I've amended no settings (or at lesst I haven't knowingly amended any settings).
 
Can't be that.

It would be showing in 'Groats' or possibly 'Shiny Beans' and the balance would be SFA.
 
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