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Betting, Mullins, Aintree

A

Alex

Amateur Rider
Joined
Feb 23, 2025
Messages
198
Location
Liverpool
Good morning to you all,

I was at Aintree yesterday and I was shocked when the first show prices came up on the boards.

When I left my house both Murcia and Gaelic Warrior were both 8/1, but their first show price was 11/4.

I find this a bit strange on non handicap races. I don't think this happens at Cheltenham.

I guess you could argue that Gaelic Warrior was backed because Mullins had won the previous 2 races. But I don't buy that, after all it's not unusual for Mullins to win races.

Last night I noticed Dancing City, had also suddenly become the second favourite. When I looked a couple of days a go, I was surprised when he was at least 10/1, maybe even 20/1.

Has anyone got any thoughts, on what I consider to be strange betting patterns, in the Graded races at Aintree ?
 
Nothing strange about Murcia - she was simply put in at the wrong price for what wasn't a strong renewal of that race.

Contrary to what some say, weight does matter and she had a hefty pull with the jolly.
 
But why was Murcia put in at the wrong price, why was Gaelic Warrior, why was Dancing City. I don't understand why they were not the 2nd favourites in the first place.
 
Because bookmaker odds compilers get it wrong sometimes.

Murcia was unplaced last time out behind an impressive winner they thought had more potential. Gaelic Warrior has been well beaten a few times and isn't always reliable - they take a bit of a view and try to anticipate demand, but don't always get it right.

Market fluctuations are as old as the hills.
 
I have never found winning at Aintree easy, you don't get betting fluctuating like this at Cheltenham in non handicap races. I should have gone with my instinct and backed them when they were a good price. I tend to be over cautious at Aintree, I was happy to break even yesterday 🙃.
 
You do get fluctuations like that in grd1 races at Cheltenham. Marine nationale, Bob olinger, Inothewayyourthinking were all heavily bet either in the days before or on the course. And that's just off the top of my head.
 
Also worth noting Alex markets are open for months at Cheltenham so markets get a lot more time to be corrected before the day.

Aintree markets are done in a week bar the national.
 


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