Betting strategy for Cheltenham

Hamm

Hamm

At the Start
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Saw this topic on another forum and thought it produces some interesting thoughts.

How do you approach it?

I have done very little antepost (Chomba Womba for CH :(), and will most probably wait till the day now, and perhaps until ground conditions for each day become clear, as I'll not trust much that comes from Claisse.

Mostly win singles, though a few each way doubles with horses I feel stand a great chance of being placed at least (Walkon, Benselem, Cooldine). All win singles on Betfair. Will back more than one in several races, especially in the first 2 races. Will no doubt have small bets on some outsiders I consider overpriced on Betfair.

No in-running betting.

Will avoid betting on all races I have little time for, such as the bumper, and all amateur and conditional races. I will bet on the cross country as I think there are only ever 2/3 who can realistically win it, which offers great value (top two in the market are currently nearly 6/4 coupled).
 
For those who have missed the ante-post prices and for those who wish some insurance on their primary bets, each-way doubles and trebles come into their own. If you’ve gone large on Kasbah Bliss and he gets beat, an each-way on Punchestowns and Cousin Vinny (for example) could get you out of jail.

Mix them up and claw back some stake money even when you lose.

Place betting only is also a must in certain circumstances.

Go large on your real bankers (not more than two or three)

I could say more but won’t go on.

 
I totted up my ante post bets yesterday and found I have wagered about three times more than I had estimated. :ninja:

I regret very few of them, but at the same time none of them have shifted that dramatically in the betting apart from VPU, so I've been carrying extra risk for no great reward.

The moral is not to bet ante post simply because you happen to think a particular horse has been overlooked or overpriced. It is only worth it if you believe the price is going to shorten for reasons other than your own perceptions of its merit.
 
Grey said:
I totted up my ante post bets yesterday and found I have wagered about three times more than I had estimated. :ninja:

I regret very few of them, but at the same time none of them have shifted that dramatically in the betting apart from VPU, so I've been carrying extra risk for no great reward.

The moral is not to bet ante post simply because you happen to think a particular horse has been overlooked or overpriced. It is only worth it if you believe the price is going to shorten for reasons other than your own perceptions of its merit.
Click to expand...


Absolutely... on the other hand I'm in a position where I will more than double my stake if either Kasbah Bliss or Punchestowns win the World Hurdle. This was only possible betting ante-post as I only backed both of them when neither was favourite.
 
I`m primarly an ante-post punter and I tend to take a chance on prices and hope:
a) the horses i`ve backed run.
b) they`ve shortened in the betting and I can top up and still beat the likely SP.

This year i`ve been more fortunate than others in that I haven`t a single non-runner yet. I punted Exotic Dancer at 65 in November and got 7s on Binocular in November and have backed them a few times since.

I always enjoy this Festival a lot more than the big flat meetings because I don`t put as much on. Also, it`s competitive but if you punt right I feel the backer has more of a chance here than at Royal Ascot for example.

Another stategy i`ve started to use is to double up some of my ante-post fancies with horses I like for the classics in May and June. My win on Finsceal Beo would have been almost twice as big if Brave Inca had won that year`s Champion Hurdle, and if Osana had won last year i`d have coined it in when New Approach won the Derby.
This year i`ve doubled VPU with Mastercraftsman and Cousin Vinny with Crowded House (both 2000 Guins)
 
Two miserable arbs on two no hopers.I made a conscious decision to steer clear of ante post bets on the festival.Last year the real value was on the day.
 
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