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BetVictor Handicap Chase

Ian_Davies

Ian_Davies

Apprentice
Joined
May 7, 2023
Messages
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Location
Hampshire
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I'm working towards greater selectivity as I get older and I want to do more with my time. Whereas I used to look at races worth £20k up, it's now £40k on the Flat and £50k over jumps thanks to the focus on Cheltenham as the basis of so many just manipulating handicap marks through the season. There are races worth that this weekend but once the ORs start going below 130 it's harder work since I tend to concentrate on races where marks are some way north of that and I don't really bother with mares races and bumpers outside of Cheltenham, Aintree and maybe the Ayr National meeting.
 
Ian_Davies said:
I haven't been "hated on" nearly enough here lately so, as this Newbury contest is 6/1 the field, I thought I'd add it too - 17 entries.

Don't worry, there won't be any more this week.

Ante-post betting: https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-r...national-hunt/betvictor-handicap-chase/winner

I'd say Heltenham (8/1) and Black Gerry (25/1) are worth keeping an eye on here.
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It could be about Heltenham's time to win again. I was persuaded to back him last time (shouldn't have listened to someone else but I did) but it turns out he probably didn't stay. RP notes say "blatant non-stayer". And if he was never going to stay 3 miles, then it follows that it was never going to be last time, and perhaps it was always more likely to be this time!
 
Ian_Davies said:
I'd say Heltenham (8/1) and Black Gerry (25/1) are worth keeping an eye on here.
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I don't need to study the form to know that 10/1 (PP & Betfair) is extremely generous so I have availed myself of it. It's 2lbs lower than when a gambled-on winner last year from the other gamble in the race, Sir Psycho, the pair a long way clear.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I don't need to study the form to know that 10/1 (PP & Betfair) is extremely generous so I have availed myself of it. It's 2lbs lower than when a gambled-on winner last year from the other gamble in the race, Sir Psycho, the pair a long way clear.
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Funnily enough, I backed Heltenham this morning too - only 10/1 with SkyBet now and I can't see that lasting much longer.
 
I saw the 10s at Skybet on Oddshecker but I didn't hold my breath... Sure enough when I logged in they were 6s. They are always slow to update on Oddshecker.
 
I managed to get 10/1 at Sky a moment ago.

(Which actually has me worried cos they've been restricting me to pennies for months. Maybe they've heard it won't run.)
 
Imagine is of immediate interest looking at his form in Ireland with the Gold Cup + Spillanes Tower. I don't think he's going to get his ground though..
Black Gerry is well handicapped + I might try + get a bit of that 25s.
To me though Scarface looks the more reliable proposition. Will like the ground. Was in good form last spring, + is fairly well handicapped on those. 10/1.
 
No better than 6/1 now.

Paul Kealy has put it up in his Weekender column, which usually causes them to shorten, and he expresses surprise that it isn't a clear favourite, which is pretty much what I felt yesterday.

Hopefully it will shorten up a bit more and allow us at least the option of taking a guaranteed profit to no risk.
 
On the RPR scale, 151 would be a winning rating. There are a few with that mark so it would seem competitive enough but Heltenham is clear of them. Black Gerry would be dangerous if he could recapture his form but he's 10 now and that has to be doubtful., plus there's a chance that Heltenham could improve past him anyway.

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