Beverley Thursday - your thoughts

swedish chef

swedish chef

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I was going through the Beverley card today for Thursday and thought trainer John A Harris runners all looked to have the profile of horses laid out for this meeting, so I went over his results for the last 5 years at this 2day meeting. I’m going to have some small win and place bets on his runners and would like to hear your thoughts. Over the last 5years his horses have been running progressively well at the meeting.

Entries
2:10 – Black Falcon & Tivers Song
5:00 – Jenny’s Pride
5:30 – Apurna

Trainers results last 5 years

2005 – 2 outsiders unplaced

2006 – No runners

2007
Credential 2nd 9/2
Sion Hill 3rd 25/1
African Star 9th 50/1
Muntami 4th 6/1
Rhythm N Ryme last 50/1
Adjami last 25/1
Sion Hill 12th 25/1 – ran twice in two days


2008
Le Chiffre won 4/1
Black Falcon 3rd 4/1
City For Conquest 3rd 7/2

2009
Union Jack Jackson won 50/1
Crocodile Bay 10th 10/1
 
I've often considered a lt of trainers to be creatures of habit and with the place on the first one I will be sure to make a small profit as two of them are non-runners.

I used to follow Peter Winkworth's 2yo's at Windsor when they were having their first race at the track and that used to be profitable but he stopped sending them their. I e-mailed him to ask him why and he replied that he couldn't compete with the Hannon 2yolds.

Ron Hodges at the first jumps meeting at Taunton is another one

Paul Cole when he sends one to Ripon and Redcar and there's also a particular Leicester meeting he does well at every year.

I have a few more but do not have the details at hand.
 
swedish chef said:
I've often considered a lt of trainers to be creatures of habit and with the place on the first one I will be sure to make a small profit as two of them are non-runners.

I used to follow Peter Winkworth's 2yo's at Windsor when they were having their first race at the track and that used to be profitable but he stopped sending them their. I e-mailed him to ask him why and he replied that he couldn't compete with the Hannon 2yolds.

Ron Hodges at the first jumps meeting at Taunton is another one

Paul Cole when he sends one to Ripon and Redcar and there's also a particular Leicester meeting he does well at every year.

I have a few more but do not have the details at hand.
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I did a lot of this sort of analysis a few years ago - one thing i think happens is that when it comes to courses it can depend on the owners in the yard at that time..maybe likes a win at his local course..over a couple of years the trainer looks like he targets certain races at that course..when in fact he is just winning at a course for a particular owner..when the owner is no longer there..that record disappears.
 
I heard it's worth following a chappy by the name of A P O'Brien in the Phoenix Stakes - He has a decent record apparently.
 
you won't get any sensible replies to be fair Chef

very few like sharing methods on here - its mainly about talking up what you fancy for big races

in fact - if you bring up any methods they normally get laughed at

not to worry
 
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John Oxx is 13 from 24 at Tramore in the last five years, but I still wouldn't back his odds-on favourite Zanoubiya in the next race there.
 
Grey said:
John Oxx is 13 from 24 at Tramore in the last five years, but I still wouldn't back his odds-on favourite Zanoubiya in the next race there.
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God knows what caused the price crash on course because the winner was the only one backed this morning. 7/4 was a massive price and to think with a bit of effort you could have got on e/w! with 3 places
 
Grey said:
In that case I have completely missed the point of this thread.
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yes you have i think

why would you back a horse at 4/7 when they only win 13/24 [54%]?

the idea of the thread is to back lesser known stables at big prices

something that most seem to have missed whilst putting in the witty one liners as well :whistle:
 
EC1 said:
yes you have i think

why would you back a horse at 4/7 when they only win 13/24 [54%]?

the idea of the thread is to back lesser known stables at big prices

something that most seem to have missed whilst putting in the witty one liners as well :whistle:
Click to expand...

She wasn't odds on this morning, though, as Gearoid points out.

Lesser known stables are also smaller stables, which makes it very difficult to assemble enough data to come up with anything useful.
 
Sorry I was not clear. I was referring to the 7/4 returned for the winner Scots Gaelic. The morning betting was roughly:

5/6 Zanoubiya
6/5 Scots Gaelic
 
EC1 said:
yes you have i think

why would you back a horse at 4/7 when they only win 13/24 [54%]?

the idea of the thread is to back lesser known stables at big prices

something that most seem to have missed whilst putting in the witty one liners as well :whistle:
Click to expand...

Yes EC1 the idea of the thread was to highlight smaller stables and their habits and I appreciate your support, but not being a serious punter I throroughly enjoy spending hours going over particular cards and races looking for the possibility of catching one at a big price, for a small stake and find it very rewarding when I do. I also enjoy the witty one liners as they make me laugh and I certainly don't take it personally.
If I was a serious or professional gambler then it would make sense to concentrate on the better class races and discuss them thoroughly as is often the case on this board. This also in my opinion makes fascinating reading as the points of view are often intelligent and well thought out.
At the end of the day we all have different opinions and every member is entitled to express theirs in their own way and I'll continue to enjoy reading them, regardless.
 
Personally, I enjoy these analses of smaller stables. Keep`em coming I say!

I don`t analyse but I do follow my local stable and it can be profitable...occasionally!
 
Gearoid said:
Sorry I was not clear. I was referring to the 7/4 returned for the winner Scots Gaelic. The morning betting was roughly:

5/6 Zanoubiya
6/5 Scots Gaelic
Click to expand...

In my wisdom I decided Scots Gaelic was useless and the weekends bank should be invested laying him at under 2.3-the plunge on the fav meant I dodged that bullet.
I was in the betting ring in Tramore last night before the novice chase-there was one lady bookie shouting 2/1 the fav and within a couple of minutes it has shortened to 6/4 without any real money at the track -are the oncourse bookies so dependent on betfair that they cant take on holiday punters.
 
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