Boylesports Gold Cup

Bar the Bull

Bar the Bull

At the Start
Joined
May 2, 2003
Messages
9,534
Location
Llandubno, West Wales (very west)
I have been having a bit of a study of this race. The top weights have come out, leaving Knowhere on 11-12. The betting is below:

New Little Bric (11/2) , Abragante (7) , Il Duce (8) , Palarshan (10) , New Alco (11) , Knowhere (12) , Howle Hill (16) , Roman Ark (16) , Copsale Lad (20) , Faasel (20) , Idole First (20) , Knight Legend (20) , Le Volfoni (20) , Tamarinbleu (20) , Patman De Charmil (25) , Private Be (25) , Vodka Bleu (25) , Black Hills (33) , Magic Sky (33) , Tikram (33) - Others 50 or more

This is surely a must punt race. I am not having New Little Bric at all. I think he won a couple of sh1t novice chases last season. He is a potential improver, but he would be at around 12/1 if he had a different trainer.

Palarshan is the one for me. There is not too much wrong with this horse. He would have won if he hadn't been hampered the last day, loves Cheltenham and the ground shouldn't be too bad.

I have had a little bit of the 10/1 with Coral and expect him to start a lot shorter.
 
I agree with BTB if Granit Jack had stood up the last day Palarshan would have finished second at worst and possibly won the race.
In my opinion he is best when fresh and I don't expect him to improve on his last run.
 
Glad that someone else agrees with my thoughts on New Little Bric. I was quite disappointed with New Little Bric last time out to be completely honest, no where near justified why it went off as a short price favourite.

I quite like the look of Patman Du Charmil as a big price EW option, stays really well and jumps well too.

To be honest, so far this season, the horses above, have not lived up to expectations so far such as New Alco, Abragante, New Little Bric, etc... Think it could be worth having a bet on a bigger priced horse as an EW alternative.
 
Drop back to 2m5f won't inconvenience Abragante - especially as he will get the strong pace he needs. I'm convinced he is much better than his OR of 135, and I expect a very big run.
 
Originally posted by Will@Dec 11 2007, 03:02 AM
New Alco would be jolly for this if he didnt run in the hennessy. Im prepare to forgive that run.
Click to expand...
New Alco is running in a 6 pounds higher mark here than in the Hennessy.
 
That would be good for our TTF syndicate on FF, as he's in our very best line - currently lying c156th in the comp :D

No longer a Palarshan fan Chris? - or is it a question of the ground?
I haven;t yet put on my 2 x e/w so I'm looking for clues here...
At the moment these two are my pick against the field
 
Really think Palarshan needs 3m now, and he is a horse that has always been best fresh for my liking. Ground would be a minor worry as well.
 
I agree with Bar over Palarshan, he must run a big race.

I'm not so convinced as some are that he runs his best races when fresh or first time out - he can win, or run well first time out (which not all horses can do) but he is also capable of running big races in the middle of the season as well. He will have had a month inbetween runs which is more than good enough for me.

I also agree with Chris that Knowhere should run well - whether he can quite win off topweight is another matter, but he should be in the placings again.

Please, don't be starting that nonsense about Abragante again!!!! Hound.
 
Abragante is a fast ground, flat track, produced to lead at the last horse;

If he has to battle the dummy comes out, He is an in running fantastic lay, how in the world he traded as low as 3.85 in the Hennessy god knows.
 
Palarshan was unlucky in the Paddy Power as he was quite badly hampered at a crucial stage but I fear that was his big chance.
 
I could be wrong (I usually am) but I'm under the impression that younger horses are increasingly being brought forward earlier? It might have something to do with training developments, scientific advances, or just good old fashioned pressure from owners to get a return on their investment as quickly as possible. It might have started with Martin Pipe's use of French imports, but in the last 2 seasons alone, we've seen a 5yo win the Coral Cup and Sun Alliance Chase for the first time, and a 6yo win the Champion Chase for only the second time. It might also account for the number of injuries? although again I don't know if that's an illusion I'm under, or whether they are indeed on the increase?

In handicaps it's potentially even more of a useful perspective, as unexposed younger horses will typically carry lower weights. The Boyle Sports is no different.

Consider the record of 9yo's plus;

You have to go back to Fragrant Dawn in 1993 to find the last time one won. In the last 13 years 44 have tried, (meaning they account for 33% of the fields, 1 in 3 etc). Three placed, the remaining 41 finished unplaced. This wouldn't bode well for Tikram, Copsale Lad, Parlashan, Knowhere or Roman Ark at face value?

Compare this record against that of 6yo's;

In the last 12 years, I'm counting 16 that have tried from a total of 131 who faced the starter (12%). 3 of them won (Exotic Dancer, Legal Right and Fondmort). It is also quite possible that Our Vic would have joined the list had he not tipped up at the last when seemingly destined to fight out a finish with Monkerhostin. 4 have placed, and 9 finished unplaced. That gives them a win or place strike rate of 43% once you find a candidate. Or put another way they have a ratio of 2 to 1 in terms of the fact that they supply 12% of the runners, and account for 25% of the winners.

To summarise it starkly, older horses account for nearly 3 times the number of runners that 6yo's do, yet 6yo's generate 3 times the number of winners

The problem is that none of the current bunch particularly appeal.

Le Volfoni, New Alco, New Little Bric, Faasel and Abragante

I suppose that by virtue of not having completed the Hennessey New Alco would be my preferred option at this early stage, but recent placed form on the latest outing seems to be common to majority of winners. Sir OJ defied it, but before him you need to go back some 25 years to Observe, to find the last horse to break that hoodoo, and unfortunately a strict application of that trend would wipe out all the 6yo's.

I'm half considerign a 7yo option in Howle Hill, but haven't decided yet
 
In recent years there's been some decent priced placed horses, even if fancied horses tend to win

25/1, 20/1, 20/1, 33/1, 20/1, 25/1

Which has set me off looking in a different direction, the only problem being is that I've got to find a way of dismissing the Jewson from my mind if I'm to consider backing one that's caught my eye :rolleyes: As Il Duce, Knowhere, Patman du Charmil and Parlahsan would all hold it through L'Antartique on November's running.
 
I am tempted to make a case for Vodka Bleu - lots and lots to prove now but that is reflected in the price.

Just over a year ago he was running 2nd here in the Paddy Power and at that stage he had never finished out of the places at Cheltenham. The runs at the end of last season and the fto this season were poor - no question - but Aintree probably reads worse than it was and there is at least some kind of excuse for the run this season.

More crucially trip and ground suit and his OR really is getting low now (won twice above this mark, last win and once round here)

Potentially there is still some class there and whilst I fully expect at least one to be too good, I might have a speculative look at the place market.
 
I wondering if I can't make half a case for Knight Legend? He's perhaps got a bit too much weight for my liking, and is far from certain to get round in one piece, but on completed chase starts his win and place ratio is good.

2, 1, 2, 8, 1, 2, 11, 1, 2, 2, 2, 3 making him 10 from 12

Not only is hitting the frame on 83% of occasions he's also been getting pretty close to the winner, and doesn't very often get hammered out of sight.

8L to Mossbank
shd to Conna Castle
11L to Offshore Account
30L to L'Antartique (Jewson)
27L to Sir Frederick (Galway Plate)
3L to Briareus
2L to O'Muircheateagh
4L to Mattock Ranger
2L to Gypsy Lord

Which means on some crude average he's normally about 7.25L's away in defeat (on completed starts including the wins). He's a got an 11L verdict over Central House in grade 3 at Punchestown last month, and finished 8L behind Mossbank in second in a grade 2 at Clonmel in the same month, a win that had some observers talking about Mossbank in Hennessey terms I seem to recall? Again though, his jumping was flagged up as ragged. He finished the 2006/07 season as runner up in Grade 1 novice at the punchestown festival to Offshore Account in a race that included a win over Snowy Morning, though in all probability would have gone to Aces Four but for his last fence departure.

His win against Central House this November involved a small race, 4 of his other 5 wins came in decent sized fields though, featuring 14, 18, 24, and 22 runners suggesting he isn't too fazed for company. He's been kept busy so far this season which suggests to me at least that Jessie's not necessarily saving him for a campaign, and bigger targets in 2008.

His 5 wins have come on Gd, Hvy, Hvy, Sft and Yd/ Sft so ought to be ok on that score.

My one big form concern (apart from his jumping as he crashes a few times, which you take a chance on obviously) is his performance in the Jewson. He earned the comment "jumped poorly" (again) and trailed in some 30L's behind L'Antartique in 11th. On the one hand you might say that if he jumped as badly as the record suggests and still finished he must have some ability, but you'd have to be concerned that he just isn't suited to Cheltenham.

In the Jewson however, he wasn't partnered by Barry Geraghty for the first time in ages, and Robbie Power took the ride, and its weighing up the significance of whether this is the explanation that's gnawing away at me. Both jockeys have ridden the horse a significant number of times now to suggest that Geraghty gets on better with him;

Power - 3, 1, 5, 3, 3, F, 11 (14% win, 57% win & place)
Geraghty - 2, BD, 1, 2, 8, 1, 2, F, UR, 1, 2, 2 (25% win 66% win and place or 72% if you're prepared to forgive being BD)

My gut reaction is that his jumping isn't good enough, and he has been caught out running two of his poorest races in competitive handicap chases. I don't normally mind these kind of 'hit or miss' horses at 20/1, as you tend to know what you get with them. I'm desperately trying to talk myself into explaining the Jewson away through the jockey, as quite a few of these would hold him at the weights on that running through L'Antartique on the Paddy Power form. However, my instinctive reaction is that being unsuited by the course is the more logical explanation, and the number of times I've been sticking horses on the deck in last fortnight should serve as a salutory lesson, as this one's got a whacking great F written all over it. If there's a question mark over his jumping, then Cheltenham is no place to test it out, and again he sits slightly on the wrong side of the 11.4 barrier at the weights too.

Can't decide. shrug::
 
I was looking at Knight Legend myself Warbler but you couldnt trust him jumping well around a track like Cheltenham.
 
Howle Hill surprised me the last day-I always had him down as a dodgy stayer over2 miles and at one stage Alan King targeted him at Lingfields winter flat racing.He ran on really well the last day over 2 miles 3 furlongs and possibly he has strengthened up or found some improvement.Against that he isn't exactly thrown in at the weights and would be a candidate for the bounce.
 
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