Breeders Cup 2015

Aughex said:
That treble has nothing to do with the horse ability or adaptability to different trips but more with its physical strength and being capable of performing in top shape for 3 races in less than 2 months.
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No, it has everything to do with a horse's ability ............... and class. You don't win the top-three Dirt races for 3-y-o's in the U.S. on physical strength alone.


It also depends how weak the 3yo's are in that season.
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The clocks and the fractionals that American Pharoah posted makes any talk of an alleged weakness of opposition an irrelevance. The times he ran are a testament to his class -- second fastest ever Triple Crown winner ( second only to Secretariat) in the Belmont leg; and 7 lengths faster in the Kentucky Derby than the previous year's winner (California Chrome).

Again, not saying Pharoah will win on Saturday. I don't know, and would be reluctant to bet him at odds-on. He may have peaked in the Haskell ( beating Keen Ice easily who later overturned him in the Travers); we may have seen his best days behind him. Or, maybe the extended 9 week rest has re-invigorated him. Who knows? Does Bob Baffert even know? :)
 
EC1 said:
i know most people find speed figures boring ... but anyone that keeps AW figures knows Toast Of New York NY was no class 5 horse..
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you know what i've meant.. he's a handicap horse at best in UK and yet he came close winning US top crown.. do you think they would've dropped the race from the BC if he had won like they did with the marathon after another UK handicapper won it ?


icebreaker said:
No, it has everything to do with a horse's ability ............... and class. You don't win the top-three Dirt races for 3-y-o's in the U.S. on physical strength alone.
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It has little to do with the ability if he's not able to bring his top game every time. Plus if the competition is really weak then he's got even little to do with ability. Its got alot to do with the horse constitution and how much racing can he take in a month and half interval.


icebreaker said:
The times he ran are a testament to his class -- second fastest ever Triple Crown winner ( second only to Secretariat) in the Belmont leg; and 7 lengths faster in the Kentucky Derby than the previous year's winner (California Chrome).
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I'd rather not compare the clock of dirt horses, not only they measure it wrong(not from when the gates open) but they also decided Sec's time few years ago in an office using video replay.. so sorry but personally I don't really trust or take too much notice on their speed figures.
 
From what I've seen of the dirt track on the TV I wouldn't consider running a horse of mine, I know the monetary rewards are nice but I would prefer to not take part and go win somewhere else.

Didn't O'Brien lose a horse fairly recently in the Breeders' Cup on sloppy going? Can't recall the name, bloody memory.........EAO?
 
Aughex said:
you know what i've meant.. he's a handicap horse at best in UK and yet he came close winning US top crown..
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you never saw what he was truly capable of in the UK though in higher class races..the form and times though told you from his races here that he was a Group horse.....so to say he was a handicapper is misleading..its a bit like Jack Hobbs ..if he had left these shores after winning his first two races you would be saying ..well he has only won a AW mdn and a handicap here...you are ignoring the ability and just going on class number given to race to suit your argument.

its a complete fallacy that all our AW horses are rubbish and as such when some go to the US and win..theirs must be really poor if our AW horses can beat them.
 
icebreaker said:
How many horses has AOB targeted and run in the Classic over the years, I wonder?
How many has he won? That one is easy -- None. :)

Okay, Giant's Causeway beaten by a nose or a neck; but Gleneagles is no Giant's. No "iron horse".
Timeform has Gleneagles at 126; I've just looked up Giant's Causeway -- 132.

One thing I think in Gleaneagles favour is that he does have Dirt breeding on his dam side. (Amazingly and so so coincidentally, Gleneagles grand-dam Mariah's Storm was also the dam of Giant's Causeway). :D
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I am not that into ratings but I am struggling to see how little difference there is between Giant's Causeway and Gleneagles? GC was a phenomenal animal. He'd chew up Gleneagles seven days a week and twice on a Sunday.
 
Firstly I know nothing about dirt racing so can someone explain to me how a horse that wont run on soft grass is then expected to run on mud?
 
EC1 said:
you never saw what he was truly capable of in the UK though in higher class races..the form and times though told you from his races here that he was a Group horse.....so to say he was a handicapper is misleading..
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But he hasn't been in any group races, I wish I could say he was better but there's no proof, its only speculation and if we're on that territory I doubt he'd even place in an A/W listed event in UK, let alone in group ones.. just my 2 cents.


G-G said:
I am not that into ratings but I am struggling to see how little difference there is between Giant's Causeway and Gleneagles? GC was a phenomenal animal. He'd chew up Gleneagles seven days a week and twice on a Sunday.
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How many classics has GC won? I don't rank Gleneagles higher but I think there's not much between those 2 over a mile. Over 10f Glen is untested and if given the shot in the Eclipse I think he could've beaten the golden boy and rank higher than GC.

Digger said:
Firstly I know nothing about dirt racing so can someone explain to me how a horse that wont run on soft grass is then expected to run on mud?
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Fiona Craig, breeding advisor for Moyglare Stud, said about Gleneagles, “He loves firm ground; he’s an easy striding horse. They haven’t run him about five times this year because the ground has been too soft. He’s got what we call in the business, daisy cutting action. It’s a running style suited for dirt and a lot of the good dirt horses have the same floating style.”
 
Aughex said:
Fiona Craig, breeding advisor for Moyglare Stud, said about Gleneagles, “He loves firm ground; he’s an easy striding horse. They haven’t run him about five times this year because the ground has been too soft. He’s got what we call in the business, daisy cutting action. It’s a running style suited for dirt and a lot of the good dirt horses have the same floating style.”
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I don't understand that at all... is the dirt like Tapeta? If so hoofs go right in and nothing floats on top. If the dirt was firm it would make sense but surely it not firm dirt?
 
Aughex said:
But he hasn't been in any group races, I wish I could say he was better but there's no proof, its only speculation and if we're on that territory I doubt he'd even place in an A/W listed event in UK, let alone in group ones.. just my 2 cents.




How many classics has GC won? I don't rank Gleneagles higher but I think there's not much between those 2 over a mile. Over 10f Glen is untested and if given the shot in the Eclipse I think he could've beaten the golden boy and rank higher than GC.
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So what, he didn't win the Guineas? Any other day he would have because the fact that Kings Best won that day was a complete fluke. Ran another day KB would never have won it and he had no career after that and hasn't proven himself at stud either. Highly likely Gleneagles will never be tested over 10f. I can't see them running him at 4, apart from anything else, he could go through the whole season without a run if it's a wet summer. Someone saying on twitter ground considerably softer near the rail on the turf course.
 
But he hasn't been in any group races, I wish I could say he was better but there's no proof, its only speculation and if we're on that territory I doubt he'd even place in an A/W listed event in UK, let alone in group ones.. just my 2 cents.

are we talking about toast of NY..there is proof of how good he is..same as with every horse..you confusing me here..for me personally when he won our AW i knew he was a Group horse..so would anyone who made figures
 
Digger said:
I don't understand that at all... is the dirt like Tapeta? If so hoofs go right in and nothing floats on top. If the dirt was firm it would make sense but surely it not firm dirt?
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they(keeneland locals) say it'll dry up really fast but even on the slow side on dirt is very different than a slow ground on grass. If they say his running style should suit him then all it remains is actually running him and see how he reacts to it.
 
Quick question for you folks ........................... :)

Which horse, Gleneagles or American Pharoah, do you think would the Coolmore mafia prefer to win the Classic tomorrow night?
 
The dirt track has obviously dried out quickly as there was a new track record set on yesterday's card.
 
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Not been through this entire thread but does anyone have a strong opinion on Secret Gestures chance? Cheers.
 
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I think her race has the best betting shape of the weekend given hw short the fav is and how opposable she is. Bawina who I took at 16s is out now so Secret Gesture looks a worthwhile alternative with the ground going against Miss France.
 
Frankel said:
The dirt track has obviously dried out quickly as there was a new track record set on yesterday's card.
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Dirt compacts for heavy rain, hence the ntr. If it remains so, Gleneagles has a much better chance than his 12/1 suggests.
 
I imagine the only race in these islands you could hope to get 12/1 Gleneagles is The Champion hurdle and then the ground would not suit.
He has to be a bet for small ew punters like myself.
The GC camparison/ connections are there for all to see; let us just hope Ryan Moore does not drop his stick !
Remember AP got whipped 32 times his last race; that is more times than Apache Gold in two seasons !
 
And he has a second-place to his name in a Listed race on the Polytrack at Dundalk. :)
(Pity that Keeneland switched from polytrack to Dirt last year).

I've thrown him into a modest e/w yankee of double-digit odds hosses just for watching fun.

30 Oct 2015 - 7:30 Keeneland - Win
Ray's The Bar @ 14/1 EW @ 1/5 1-3
30 Oct 2015 - 8:10 Keeneland - Win
War Envoy @ 18/1 EW @ 1/5 1-3
30 Oct 2015 - 8:50 Keeneland - Win
Time And Motion @ 33/1 EW @ 1/5 1-3
30 Oct 2015 - 9:35 Keeneland - Win
Yahilwa @ 16/1 EW @ 1/5 1-3
 
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