Breeders Cup

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Breeders Cup Turf

The big news today from the markets is that Found is Breeders Cup Turf bound. What do we think of her price at sub 5/2? I took some 9/2 down to 7/2 today but I'd be tempted to lay some back or save on Flintshire at the revised 3/1. Can we now assume Highland Reel goes straight to HK?

Breeders Cup Distaff
Songbird is a stand at odds on. Fill your filthy e/w boots with all the 4/1 Stellar Ward and 9/2 Beholder you can get.

Breeders Cup Juvenal Turf

Good Samaritan is 6/1 but could easily go off fav.

Breeders Cup Fillies

American Ga is 10/1 with Racebets and 9/1 with Bet365/ She is being priced like she is the second string of Bafferts when really there is very little between his two on the formbook.

Breeders Cup Filly And Mare Sprint
Finest City is quirky but 20/1 with 365 more than gives you a shot of being on the right side of an upset. Has pieces of form to go close.

Has anyone else seen anything priced wrong?
 
Suedois has been in excellent form all season since joining David O'Meara and his July Cup run is top form where Washington DC and last year's winner of this, Mongolian Saturday finished behind.

The trainer's name next to Washington DC means he heads the market and is half the price of the O'Meara horse, which is simply wrong.

11/1 is good e/w value for a horse who seems to act on all ground, is drawn well and consistently runs his race. it'd be nice if we could get 4 places form the UK bookies on the day but he could be one to back on the PMU markets as he'll possibly be dismissed by the yanks.
 
I agree with whoever it was who remarked that Found's run at Ascot seemed to lack the sparkle of her performance in the Arc and maybe that is why they have diverted her from the Classic to this apparently easier race. On paper she's well clear of her opposition though and we know how tough she is. A no bet race for me.
 
Grey said:
I agree with whoever it was who remarked that Found's run at Ascot seemed to lack the sparkle of her performance in the Arc and maybe that is why they have diverted her from the Classic to this apparently easier race. On paper she's well clear of her opposition though and we know how tough she is. A no bet race for me.
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Not sure I would agree she lacked spark at Ascot. She bumped in to a top notch one over 10. She put the rest away easy enough.
Am glad she is going in the turf though.
 
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Frankel said:
Not sure I would agree she lacked spark at Ascot. She bumped in to a top notch one over 10. She put the rest away easy enough.
Am glad she is going in the turf though.
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She certainly was beaten by an excellent horse at Ascot, over his favoured trip. I just expected a bit more of a fight, it was all over rather quickly.
 
I got the impression that they knew they were unlikely to beat Almanzor and already had the Breeders Cup (Classic at that point, to give her experience of dirt) and ultimately the worlds richest race in January on their agenda, so were happy to keep her ticking over - given she appears to thrive on her racing - and accept another honorable and well paid second place.

Ryan drops his whip a furlong out, accepting the situation and doesn't give her a hard time thereafter.
 
The question is if flintshire is as good as he was when trained in europe.
if thats the case, he is the most likely winner, has had a light campaign geared to this and will have his ground.
 
Grey said:
She certainly was beaten by an excellent horse at Ascot, over his favoured trip. I just expected a bit more of a fight, it was all over rather quickly.
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The early fractions certainly wouldn't have helped her cause. Just allowed Almanzor to use his natural speed at the deep end of the race.
Moore was easy on her too as Wilson pointed out.

I see what you're saying though and maybe she wasn't at very best but I'm more inclined to think the race was more suited to the French horse than her.
 
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Timeform sectional analysis suggests I've been too hard on Found, Almanzor ran the second fastest closing 3f at Ascot this year, 10L quicker than when Cirrus Des Aigles broke the track record in the race.
 
Roly Poly might be overs now she has an outside draw in the Juv fillies turf, but Karakontie won the mile from 14 a couple of years back and it doesn't bother me. I like the trip for her.
 
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gus said:
I just think Found is better at 12f than 10f. She's got a great chance on Saturday night.
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Agree entirely, Gus.
It's why the slow pace favoured Almanzor at Ascot, and almost certainly why she runs in this rather than the easier 10f race against her own sex.
 
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Anybody know how BOG is going to work for this ?

Some of the bookies are offering this but the US PMU prices can vary wildly from early UK bookmaker prices and how will e/w bets be calculated given there are differences with the US show bet ?

Let's say I stake £50 e/w at 10/1 about Suedois and he wins with a win dividend of 25 and show dividend of 5, I haven't a clue what I'll get back... will I get (25 x 50 + 25) + (5 x 50 + 50) ?

and are the dividends to a $1 or $2 stake now as I can't remember ?
 
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After reading a few stable tours I've had a go at the following 6 horses 2pts e/way and a 0.1pt e/way Heinz. I don't know if they are doing BOG either?

Saturday 9.05 Turf Sprint – OBVIOUSLY – trainer says “We thought this might be one of his last Breeders’ Cups so we thought we’d try to give him his best chance to win,” D’Amato said. “Usually, the turf sprints are a little easier than the Mile. He’s training super, came out of his last race in good shape. He always shows up.” 8/1

Saturday 7.05 Juvenile Fillies – VALADORNA – trainer says, “She can win the Breeders’ Cup if she has a good trip, I think she’s that good,” Casse said. “On that Saturday when they ran the Alcibiades and Frizette (at Belmont) I thought our filly was as impressive as any one of those winners.” 8/1

Friday 21.25 - Juvenile Turf – MADE YOU LOOK – trainer says, “Made You Look has looked good breezing with fellow Juvenile Turf starter J.S. Choice the last two weekends at Belmont Park. In his October 29 breeze, Made You Look galloped out extremely strong and way in front of J.S. Choice. 10/1

Friday 11.35 - Distaff – CURALINA – trainer says, “On paper, it looks like a Distaff for the ages, but at the same time her record is outstanding, she’s shown she can compete with the best of her generation and she’s training as well as she ever has,” 18/1

Saturday 9.43 Juvenile – SYNDERGAARD – trainer says, “What I thought was impressive that despite going insane fractions, he dug in and fought hard and kept trying to the wire,” Pletcher said, referring to the Champagne. “It would give you optimism that he could handle a little further. Hes not rank, he’s just very fast. Two-turn scenario could be different, he could shake loose.” 11/2

Saturday 11.01 Filly & Mare Sprint – WAVELL AVENUE – trainer says, “Her four-furlong workout in 47.17 seconds on October 29th at Belmont Park was reminiscent of her works prior to last year’s Breeders’ Cup. 8/1
“I think she’s coming into this race the way she came in last year,” Brown said. “She’s getting good at the right time. “
 
Think we should get a decent pace in the Mile with Photo Call and Midnight Storm in there whilst Tepin is likely to go forward and keep them honest. If it develops into a strongly-run race, then I can't imagine anything will finish any stronger than Ironicus (the grey in the vid). Worth checking out the video of his last run in the Shadwell Turf Mile at Keeneland. That was a career-best on Timeform figs despite the way the race being run clearly inconveniencing, his closing sectional would earn him a massive upgrade and he rates clearly the best horse out of that for me.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vET-niYmfFs

The F&M turf has a pretty good shape because the first 2 look eminently beatable under the conditions. Lady Eli shouldn't be this short on this year's form, and it's possible she won't be as good as she was after nearly dying from laminitis last year. Seventh Heavens looks an out-and-out 12f filly, and I though she ran pretty flat at Ascot even taking into account a pretty poor ride. Have had a good go on Stoute's Queen's Trust. She's been running well all year without getting much luck. She was beaten on merit in the Yorkshire Oaks, but she was going much better than Seventh Heaven at the 2f pole and I think a well-run 10f might prove her optimum. Would have preferred a lower stall, but 7/1 more than compensates for that.

Think the classic could be a race for the ages - one that you don't really need a bet on to enjoy. Would love Arrogate to back up his Travers win. Plenty seem to be suggesting it's too good to be true, but if he's in the same form here, I think he'll win.

Found is probably the form pick in the Turf, and while she's tough and durable and deserves all the praise going in that regard, she gets beat way too often at the highest level to think she just has to turn up and take this. Two hard races in the Arc and Champion Stakes might well have left a mark too. I'd have Flintshire a clear fav. His European form makes him a very similar horse to Highland Reel, while the demands of US turf racing seem to suit even better. From stall 4, can see him having the perfect trip and taking all the beating.

Can't remember the last time I looked forward to a Breeders' Cup as much as this one.
 
Nice write up DJ but I'd have liked it a lot more if I'd read it before I took 3/1 about both Tepin and Lady Eli :(
 
Ha ha.

With regards your earlier enquiry about BOG. I imagine it won't take into account PMU odds. Merely if you take an early price, and the industry SP rather than local price is bigger, you'll get industry SP.
 
Cheers. I'm sure we used to have the option of taking the early UK price, SP or PMU price but I've checked with a few bookies and they don't seem to be offering PMU.

and if I take SP then it's going to be based on UK industry prices at the off isn't it ?, considering the US don't have bookmakers as such.

Horses like Suedois are bound to be much bigger over there so I don't want to take 10/1 when he's likely to be double that.
 
One option is betting into the US pools direct. Betfair are certainly offering that option on today's meeting, so I'd expect that to be the same. Takes some finding, but it's available via the exchange site. All sports > Horse racing > USA > Tote USA. Then move away from the sidebar and select Santa Anita in the top bar from the tap in the middle page.
 
wilsonl said:
Cheers. I'm sure we used to have the option of taking the early UK price, SP or PMU price but I've checked with a few bookies and they don't seem to be offering PMU.

and if I take SP then it's going to be based on UK industry prices at the off isn't it ?, considering the US don't have bookmakers as such.

Horses like Suedois are bound to be much bigger over there so I don't want to take 10/1 when he's likely to be double that.
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Suedois is a non runner due to injury
 
Many thanks DJ, I'll check that out.

and cheers to Brendan too. I've been busy this morning so hadn't checked the latest prices given that I wanted to back him on the PMU, hence I wasn't aware he was a NR.
 
davidjohnson said:
Think we should get a decent pace in the Mile with Photo Call and Midnight Storm in there whilst Tepin is likely to go forward and keep them honest. If it develops into a strongly-run race, then I can't imagine anything will finish any stronger than Ironicus (the grey in the vid). Worth checking out the video of his last run in the Shadwell Turf Mile at Keeneland. That was a career-best on Timeform figs despite the way the race being run clearly inconveniencing, his closing sectional would earn him a massive upgrade and he rates clearly the best horse out of that for me.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vET-niYmfFs

The F&M turf has a pretty good shape because the first 2 look eminently beatable under the conditions. Lady Eli shouldn't be this short on this year's form, and it's possible she won't be as good as she was after nearly dying from laminitis last year. Seventh Heavens looks an out-and-out 12f filly, and I though she ran pretty flat at Ascot even taking into account a pretty poor ride. Have had a good go on Stoute's Queen's Trust. She's been running well all year without getting much luck. She was beaten on merit in the Yorkshire Oaks, but she was going much better than Seventh Heaven at the 2f pole and I think a well-run 10f might prove her optimum. Would have preferred a lower stall, but 7/1 more than compensates for that.

Think the classic could be a race for the ages - one that you don't really need a bet on to enjoy. Would love Arrogate to back up his Travers win. Plenty seem to be suggesting it's too good to be true, but if he's in the same form here, I think he'll win.

Found is probably the form pick in the Turf, and while she's tough and durable and deserves all the praise going in that regard, she gets beat way too often at the highest level to think she just has to turn up and take this. Two hard races in the Arc and Champion Stakes might well have left a mark too. I'd have Flintshire a clear fav. His European form makes him a very similar horse to Highland Reel, while the demands of US turf racing seem to suit even better. From stall 4, can see him having the perfect trip and taking all the beating.

Can't remember the last time I looked forward to a Breeders' Cup as much as this one.
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Echo that last sentiment. The Distaff tonight should be just the right opener for tomorrow's action.
The Classic is as good a race as has been run anywhere in the last 10-15 years. I'll be rooting for the Chrome in the classic and think exotics with a few long odds is the way to go betting wise.
Sunybay put up a compelling list of horses that were not able to back up a really big number so I'd be leery of Arrogate. Chrome has already shown he is well capable of stringing together several top quality performances.

Like the Queens Trust selection but wonder if the the pari mutual might not throw up bigger odds.

Can't get away from Syndergaard in the Juvenile tomorrow. SA seriously plays to speed on dirt and while there are other potential front runners in this the fractions he posted in the Champagne Stakes when getting pipped at the line will see him go very close. Could be one of those races where jocks think the pace will be suicidal and back off a bit. If that's the case and Johnny V can get him to lead with softer fractions it's all over. The 11/2 could look HUGE afterwards.
 
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