Brigadier Gerard

Harbinger

Harbinger

At the Start
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Inspired by Desert Orchid's posts about him after Frankel's performance on Tuesday, I've dug out Brigadier Gerard's races at 3 and 4 from the 1971 and 1972 form books. The question was raised about how Brigadier Gerard's performances stacked up compared to Frankel and is Frankel benefitting from a more liberal handicapping methodology than was used to rate Brigadier Gerard back in the day. Let's start with the bare results:

1971


445
2,000 Guineas Stakes
01/05/1971
Newmarket
Group 1
1m
Good
1m 39.20s
6 ran
Code: 
[b]Pos	Horse			Age	Weight	Distance[/b]
1.	Brigadier Gerard	3	9-0	
2.	Mill Reef		3	9-0	3
3.	My Swallow		3	9-0	0.75
4.	Minsky			3	9-0	5
5.	Indian Ruler		3	9-0	12
6.	Good Bond		3	9-0	1.5


1239
St. James's Palace Stakes
15/06/1971
Ascot
Group 2
1m
Very Soft
1m 46.94s
4 ran
Code: 
[b]Pos	Horse			Age	Weight	Distance[/b]
1.	Brigadier Gerard	3	9-0
2.	Sparkler		3	9-0	hd
3.	Good Bond		3	9-0	6
4.	Ballyhot		3	9-0	3


2111
Sussex Stakes
28/07/1971
Goodwood
Group 1
1m
Soft
1m 41.11s
5 ran
Code: 
[b]Pos	Horse			Age	Weight	Distance[/b]
1.	Brigadier Gerard	3	8-7
2.	Faraway Son		4	9-4	5
3.	Joshua			4	9-4	2.5
4.	Ashleigh		3	8-7	3
5.	King's Company		3	8-7	6


2681
Goodwood Mile
28/08/1971
Goodwood
Group 3
1m
Yielding
1m 42.07s
3 ran
Code: 
[b]Pos	Horse			Age	Weight	Distance[/b]
1.	Brigadier Gerard	3	8-6
2.	Gold Rod		4	9-0	10
3.	Ashleigh		3	8-1	4


3148
Queen Elizabeth II Stakes
25/09/1971
Ascot
Group 2
1m
Firm
1m 41.39s
3 ran
Code: 
[b]Pos	Horse			Age	Weight	Distance[/b]
1.	Brigadier Gerard	3	8-8
2.	Dictus			4	9-1	8
3.	Ashleigh		3	8-7ow3	10


3373
Champion Stakes
16/10/1971
Newmarket
Group 1
10f
Soft
2m 17.09s
10 ran
Code: 
[b]Pos	Horse			Age	Weight	Distance[/b]
1.	Brigadier Gerard	3	8-7
2.	Rarity			4	9-0	shd
3.	Welsh Pageant		5	9-0	2.5
4.	Gold Rod		4	9-0	4
5.	Tamil			4	9-0	2
6.	Roi Soleil		4	9-0	4
7.	Tratteggio		3	8-7	-
8.	Amadou			4	9-0	-
9.	Leander			4	9-0	-
10.	Great Wall		4	9-0	-


1972


740
Lockinge Stakes
20/05/1972
Newbury
Group 2
1m
Good
1m 41.44s
5 ran
Code: 
[b]Pos	Horse			Age	Weight	Distance[/b]
1.	Brigadier Gerard	4	9-5	0
2.	Grey Mirage		3	7-11	2.5
3.	Gold Rod		5	9-5	8
4.	Leander			5	8-12	1.5
5.	Crespinall		3	7-9	12


931
Westbury Stakes
29/05/1972
Sandown
Group 3
10f
Good
2m 8.60s
5 ran
Code: 
[b]Pos	Horse			Age	Weight	Distance[/b]
1.	Brigadier Gerard	4	9-10
2.	Ballyhot		4	8-10	0.5
3.	Pembroke Castle		5	9-0	2
4.	Fair World		4	9-0	4
5.	Juggernaut		4	9-0	nk


1309
Prince of Wales Stakes
20/06/1972
Ascot
Group 2
10f
Good
2m 6.32s
7 ran
Code: 
[b]Pos	Horse			Age	Weight	Distance[/b]
1.	Brigadier Gerard	4	9-8
2.	Steel Pulse		3	8-3	5
3.	Pembroke Castle		5	9-4	1.5
4.	Prominent		5	9-4	6
5.	Lord David		4	9-2	10
6.	The Broker		3	7-10	5
7.	Pardner			3	8-0	-


1668
Eclipse Stakes
08/07/1972
Sandown
Group 1
10f
Soft
2m 20.20s
6 ran
Code: 
[b]Pos	Horse			Age	Weight	Distance[/b]
1.	Brigadier Gerard	4	9-5
2.	Gold Rod		5	9-5	1
3.	Home Guard		3	8-7	2
4.	Charladouce		4	9-5	0.75
5.	Alonso			3	8-7	2
6.	Lord David		4	9-5	3


1973
King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes
22/07/1972
Ascot
Group 1
12f
Good
2m 32.91s
9 ran
Code: 
[b]Pos	Horse			Age	Weight	Distance[/b]
1.	Brigadier Gerard	4	9-7
2.	Parnell			4	9-7	1.5
3.	Riverman		3	8-7	5
4.	Steel Pulse		3	8-7	2
5.	Gay Lussac		3	8-7	1
6.	Bog Road		3	8-7	2
7.	Sukawa			3	8-7	-
8.	Selhurst		4	9-7	-
9.	Fair World		4	9-7	-


2474
Benson and Hedges Gold Cup
15/08/1972
York
Group 1
10.5f
Good
2m 7.10s
6 ran
Code: 
[b]Pos	Horse			Age	Weight	Distance[/b]
1.	Roberto			3	8-10
2.	Brigadier Gerard	4	9-7	3
3.	Gold Rod		5	9-7	10
4.	Rheingold		3	8-10	2
5.	Bright Beam		5	9-7	15


3164
Queen Elizabeth II Stakes
23/09/1972
Ascot
Group 1
1m
Firm
1m 39.96s
4 ran
Code: 
[b]Pos	Horse			Age	Weight	Distance[/b]
1.	Brigadier Gerard	4	9-7
2.	Sparkler		4	9-0	6
3.	Redundant		3	8-7	5
4.	Almagest		5	9-0	15


3400
Champion Stakes
14/10/1972
Newmarket
Group 1
10f
Good
2m 7.41s
9 ran
Code: 
[b]Pos	Horse			Age	Weight	Distance[/b]
1.	Brigadier Gerard	4	9-3
2.	Riverman		3	8-10	1.5
3.	Lord David		4	9-3	4
4.	Jimsun			3	8-10	hd
5.	L'Apache		4	9-3	12
6.	Boreen			4	9-3	2.5
7.	Sol'Argent		5	9-3	-
8.	Almagest		5	9-3	-
9.	Steel Pulse		3	8-10	-
 
When it comes to narrowing down which races Brigadier Gerard likely achieved his big ratings, I've omitted the following:

1971 St James's Palace Stakes - won by just a head off levels from Sparkler on very soft ground. Sparkler finished 1971 with a Timeform rating of 130.

1971 Champion Stakes - a short head defeat of Rarity receiving weight for age on soft ground. Rarity finished 1971 with a Timeform rating of 129.

1972 Eclipse - a 1 length defeat of Gold Rod off levels on Soft ground with the rest of the field not too far away. Brigadier Gerard trounced Gold Rod numerous times by much further. I don't have Timeform's Racehorses of 1972 yet (if anyone does, feel free to pitch in) but he was rated 129 in 1971 and was well exposed at that stage.

1972 King George - a 1.5 length defeat of Parnell off levels on Good ground. Parnell was a stayer who won the Irish Leger in 1971 and finished that year rated 124. Earlier in '72 he was beaten a length in the Prix du Cadran (before it was moved to the end of the season) and won what is now the Group 2 Prix Vicomtesse Vigier.

1972 Benson & Hedges Gold Cup (now the Juddmonte) - Brigadier Gerard's only defeat.

1972 Champion Stakes - a 1.5 length defeat of Riverman, who was rated 128 by Timeform at 2 and came out at 3 to win the Poulains by three quarters of a length, the (old 9f) Prix Jean Prat by 3, and the Prix d'Ispahan (when it was all-age and run in late June) by 2 lengths before his King George 3rd. A fine horse, but surely not the high 130s horse that would suggest that Brigadier Gerard ran to 140+ to beat him.

This leaves us with the following to analyse:

1971 2000 Guineas
1971 Sussex Stakes
1971 Goodwood Mile
1971 QEII
1972 Lockinge
1972 Westbury Stakes
1972 Prince of Wales's Stakes
1972 QEII
 
Ok, so the 1971 races. For the purposes of this, I'm going to use a high poundage, in line with what was used by Timeform to rate this year's Queen Anne, of 2.625 lbs per length (that's 21/8 for anyone wondering why its so precise). This may be way higher than is justified both by the circumstances of the races and the way in which lengths were calculated in the early 1970s, but I want to err on the side of over-estimation. It should also be noted that Brigadier Gerard finished 1971 with a Timeform rating of 141.

Let's start with the Guineas. Timeform had My Swallow on 132 at the end of 1971. A brilliant 2yo, he went on to be well beaten in the Prix de Porte Maillot and was second in the July Cup before being retired. 3.75 lengths equates to 10lbs, putting Brigadier Gerard on a maximum of 142.

In the '71 Sussex, Faraway Son finished the season on 130 after winning the Moulin and Foret and giving My Swallow a doing in the Porte Maillot. Brigadier Gerard beat Faraway Son by 5 lengths, or 13lbs, with their then-current WFA scale suggesting they were off effectively level weights. That would suggest a maximum of 143 for BG. The fourth horse, Ashleigh, had won the Jersey Stakes and finished the season on 114. A 28lb beating of him would suggest a figure of 142.

The other two 1971 races are unfortunately both just 3 runner affairs. Both also feature Ashleigh again. In the Goodwood Mile, BG gave him 5lbs and a 14 length beating, which would add up to 42lbs and a winning rating in the mid-150s! The horse that split them, Gold Rod, finished the season on 129 (he was beaten half a length by Faraway Son in the Moulin). Taking WFA into account, BG was also giving him 1lb. A 10 length defeat would add up to 27lbs, supporting that crazy mid-150s figure. Sadly, such a rating really is pie-in-the-sky, as it's explained that Gold Rod was eased once his chance was gone. You'd have to delve into the world of 1971 time figures to get a handle on what Brigadier Gerard really did that day when he blitzed them from the front.

The '71 QEII is a similar story. Ashleigh was back, and due to overweight was only giving BG 1lb (the QEII was a Group 2 in this first year of the pattern, so presumably BG was carrying a penalty?). He was beaten 18 lengths, which would put BG on 162 - clearly Ashleigh tells us nothing once again. This time the horse that split them was Dictus. Timeform's WFA had them effectively racing off levels. With an 8 length defeat being worth 21lbs, and Dictus rated 126 after winning the Jacques Le Marois by half a length. That would suggest a figure in line with Frankel's 147. However, Timeform had him down as a soft ground horse and describes the firm ground QEII as follows:

The Jersey Stakes winner Ashleigh was the only other runner and he and Brigadier Gerard set off at a blistering pace. Dictus was taken off his feet and was being pushed and scrubbed along after two furlongs, where he was about three lengths behind the leaders. He was never striding out freely at any stage of the race, although, after receiving a sharp reminder at halfway and being hard ridding all the way up the straight, he did pass Ashleigh about a furlong and a half out. However, Dictus never saw the way Brigadier Gerard went and the pair were separated by eight lengths at the the line.
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Hardly a performance to hang a rating of 147 from, surely?

Right, 1972 tomorrow hopefully. Again, if anyone has a copy of Racehorses of 1972, I'd appreciate it if they could fill in any gaps!
 
Gareth Flynn said:
1972 Benson & Hedges Gold Cup (now the Juddmonte) - Brigadier Gerard's only defeat.
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And in The Brigadier we're told he coughed up a big lump of mucus after the race. I know someone who always suggests this result as evidence that that was the only time we saw the real Roberto...

We also know that York can throw up an odd result and its front-running pace bias wasn't common knowledge back in the day.
 
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Gareth Flynn said:
Hardly a performance to hang a rating of 147 from, surely?
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First of all, thanks for taking the time to research all that.

Regarding the quote, can I ask why you selected that dubious piece of form to doubt BG's rating when other lines of form you quoted put him in the 150s and 160s?

Mind you, I'm so glad you mentioned those other lines. They make Hawk Wing's Lockinge less freakish!!

The point I've been trying to argue is that Brigadier Gerard regularly beat far better horses than the ones Frankel was up against last season or so far this year.

Sparkler never hung away across the course when the Brigadier went past him the way Canford Cliffs did. All other lines suggest CC wasn't his best those days.

And I'm sure a similar second look at Sea Bird's career would push his ratings up!

Cheers again, Gareth. I think I might have RO1972 in the loft.
 
I have timeform racehorses since early 80s
and my feeling is they were using higher figures at the time than they are doing now

Frankel in the 70s would have been rated 155
 
The 'chief correspondent' from Timeform has just been on the Morning Line saying Timeform's methodologies have never changed since day one.

The words 'aye' and 'right' spring to mind.

However, my holidays start soon and I can think of no better way to spend them than to check back through their old ratings...

I should add, I was always BG's biggest fan after he won the Guineas (I backed him) but it was only in the last few years with the aid of Youtube that I've been able to appreciate Sea Bird was probably a better horse. He beat even better horses than the Brigadier and he was simply silky smooth in doing so.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Regarding the quote, can I ask why you selected that dubious piece of form to doubt BG's rating when other lines of form you quoted put him in the 150s and 160s?
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To start with, I'm not doubting Brigadier Gerard's form at all. The purpose of the exercise is to see what he beat and (very!) roughly how the races might have been rated in line with today.

He was rated 141 in 1971. Based on the 2000 Guineas and the Sussex Stakes above, I've suggested he could have been as high as 142-3 that year.

The other two races surely expose the limits of yardstick handicapping, however, with their tiny fields and uncompetitive rivals who surely can't have been considered to have run to their best form on either day. If Frankel were to have been given his 147 rating in such a contest on such evidence, I think it would have been laughed out of the room.

Anyway, on to '72...
 
I'm trying to find those sectionals that were posted somewhere.

If Frankel did finish 2s ahead of the second, I am happy to credit him with a winning margin of 12 lengths. I have absolutely no problem with that (but I'd argue that Hawk Wing should also be credited with a 12L win in his Lockinge and Brigadier Gerard's winning distances should also be increased) and it is shaping up that I will be rating him in the mid-140s.

I'm unconvinced about 2.6 or so lbs per length at a mile but if the formula used to arrive at the poundage is extended across all distances it would explain the large discrepancies between my own ratings (which are closer to RPRs and ORs) and Timeform's.

It would seem we aren't comparing apples with apples. I know my ratings work for me and I have a lot of faith in them. I could never place my faith in Timeform's ratings* although I like to know what they are out of curiosity just as I like to kow what the ORs and RPRs say; likewise EC1's analyses.

(*Both conclusions are based on examination of my betting record.)
 
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Gareth Flynn said:
The other two races surely expose the limits of yardstick handicapping, however, with their tiny fields and uncompetitive rivals who surely can't have been considered to have run to their best form on either day. If Frankel were to have been given his 147 rating in such a contest on such evidence, I think it would have been laughed out of the room.
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I know the feeling... Hawk Wing?
 
quality thread Gareth

I'm hoping Gus is around as he has form books going back to the 60's i seem to remember. If you are read this Gus it would be great if you could post the times of the others races on the cards for those two races that are hard to guage using form only analysis. I'll have a stab at rating them..I will put all the calcs up so that maybe we can get a time perspective on them..anyone that makes figures can have a go as well.

The two meetings are 28/8/71 Goodwood & 25/9/71 Ascot
 
Having seen nearly all the races contested by these two outstanding champions, I'm pretty happy in my own mind that Frankel is the better of the two.

I don't buy the idea that the Brigadier was beating a higher class of horse than Frankel.

There's a tendency for people, especially those of a certain age, to look at the top horses of yesteryear through rose-tinted glasses and assign a greater ability to them than they actually possessed or displayed.

Looking at many of the horses BG beat, while their names have a warm, nostalgic glow about them, the truth is most weren't actually that good.
 
If Frankel did finish 2s ahead of the second.

got the video on to the computer this morning and run it through the video software....it shows to the thousandth of a second but thats possibly a little fanciful with the framerate ...but i get the winning distance in time as 1.902 seconds

i can do Hawk Wings if you want..if its on youtube..i'll capture it and see what his time was to the 2nd horse
 
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Venusian said:
Having seen nearly all the races contested by these two outstanding champions, I'm pretty happy in my own mind that Frankel is the better of the two.

I don't buy the idea that the Brigadier was beating a higher class of horse than Frankel.

There's a tendency for people, especially those of a certain age, to look at the top horses of yesteryear through rose-tinted glasses and assign a greater ability to them than they actually possessed or displayed.

Looking at many of the horses BG beat, while their names have a warm, nostalgic glow about them, the truth is most weren't actually that good.
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but with Timeform we do have a rating for the beaten horses in both era's..so the guesswork is removed.
 
EC1 said:
i can do Hawk Wings if you want..if its on youtube..i'll capture it and see what his time was to the 2nd horse
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Yes please!

1.902s at 6 lengths per second is 11.4 lengths, which I'd be happy to value at 12 on the basis of ease of victory but I'd work out the poundage based on 11.4 then round it up.
 
a slight prob..might be able estimate it very close..but..the video on you tube cuts out just before the 2nd hits the line

if anyone has that race and fancies sticking it on there it would much appreciated..as long as you can see the 2nd horse reach the line of course;)
 
sorted it..not to the one hundreth like but this is as good as it gets...2.16 seconds..it won't be much out either way

this is where the ground speed comes in ;)
 
EC1 said:
but with Timeform we do have a rating for the beaten horses in both era's..so the guesswork is removed.
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But I don't think it is, really.

One of the problems with Timeform's ratings in years gone by was their tendency to overrate top horses, perhaps because they used to (and maybe still do) adjust their ratings to have each generation possessing the same overall ability as the previous one.

This meant that in a poor year, an "average champion" would get some stratospheric rating, think of the 2-y-os Windy City and Star Of India, or the sprinters Pappa Fourway and Bleep-Bleep.
 
Venusian said:
But I don't think it is, really.

One of the problems with Timeform's ratings in years gone by was their tendency to overrate top horses, perhaps because they used to (and maybe still do) adjust their ratings to have each generation possessing the same overall ability as the previous one.

This meant that in a poor year, an "average champion" would get some stratospheric rating, think of the 2-y-os Windy City and Star Of India, or the sprinters Pappa Fourway and Bleep-Bleep.
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but they would need to overrate all the horses BG beat for it to be out of step
 
EC1 said:
sorted it..not to the one hundreth like but this is as good as it gets...2.16 seconds..it won't be much out either way

this is where the ground speed comes in ;)
Click to expand...

From Wiki:
A field of six ran in the 2003 Group One Lockinge Stakes at Newbury, including: Where Or When, who had beaten Hawk Wing in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes; Olden Times, winner of the Group One Prix Jean Prat; Domedriver, who had inflicted Rock Of Gibraltar's first defeat in eight Group One races in the Breeders' Cup Mile; Reel Buddy (priced at 50-1 despite having been placed in the Group One Sussex Stakes - an indication of the quality of the field); and Celebration Mile winner Tillerman. Hawk Wing beat this Group One field by 11 lengths, with second place Where Or When eight lengths clear of Olden Times in third.[2] Timeform rated him at 136, suggesting that this was the best performance in the world over a mile for nearly ten years. He never reproduced this form again, finishing well down the field on his next and only subsequent outing
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The standard for the Newbury straight mile is 97s. Hawk Wing ran it in 1-36.78. This means they were averaging a fraction over 6 lengths per second, which is a winning distance of just over 13 lengths. At 2.25lbs per length it's a 29+lbs margin of victory (at 2.625 it's over 34 lbs). Mind you, they were probably travelling slower than at the average speed in the final furlong.
 
Goodwood 28 August 1971 (yielding - "wind strong, half against"):

1.45 (6f nursery, 6 ran) - Auburn Star 2 8-6 62.87s (won by 1l and a neck)

2.15 (14f conditions race, 6 ran) - Alderney 3 8-1 186.71s (sh, 12l)

2.45 (10f hcap, 9 ran) - Tandy 5 9-4 132.19s (nk, 1l)

3.15 (8f conditions race, 3 ran) - Brigadier Gerard 3 8-6 102.07s (10l, 4l)

3.45 (6f maiden 2-y-o fillies, 21 ran) - Kalise 2 8-8 77.67s (2l, 1l)

4.15 (12f maiden, 8 ran) - Klavier 3 8-12 165.37s (3/4l, 5l)

4.45 (6f hcap, 8 ran) - Royal Captive 5 9-3 75.63s (1l, 1l)

To give some indication of class of race, Alderney won £1517, Tandy £1720 and BG £3926. The others were worth between £621 and £795.

Ascot, September 25 to follow after I've got my bets on.
 
Is that from the form book, Gus? Does it give the comparison with the standard times on the day? The going allowance?
 
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