Brigadier Gerard

Taking Royal Captive as a marker:

Given that it was a good card, his race was probably the equivalent of a Class C (0-95), with RC 11lbs below the 10-0 ceiling, suggesting a rating of 84, off which he won, making him a 94 rating? Using his race as the marker for the going, it's a hefty 0.58spf going allowance, normally an indicator of soft ground but the strong headwind would need to be factored in. It would give Brigadier Gerard a time rating of about 107+wfa. This would suggest a reasonably run race.
 
1972, in which Brigadier Gerard finished his career with a Timeform rating of 144.

In the 1972 Lockinge, Brigadier Gerard beat Grey Mirage by 2.5 lengths. This was when the Lockinge was still open to 3yos. Timeform's WFA scale at the time suggested a 3yo should get 15lbs from a 4yo in this race, meaning Brigadier Gerard was giving him 7lbs. That all adds up to a 14lb beating.

Grey Mirage was rated at 128 as a 2yo despite not running in any of the major juvenile races. He won the old Guineas trial at Kempton by 5 lengths from Taramoss on his 3yo debut. He then won the old Ascot Guineas Trial by 6 lengths from Avancer, but was well beaten in High Top's Guineas when 5/1 third favourite. The Lockinge was next up, but he was only 6th in the Prix du Palais Royal at Longchamp, a 7 length 3rd in the St James Palace Stakes, 5th in a Chester handicap (started 4/6 and had rivals running off as little as 6-7 with a 7lb claimer), 5th beaten over 5 lengths in the Prix Maurice de Gheest, 2nd in the 7f Ascot handicap run immediately after BG's QEII, 7th in the Moulin and finally 7th in the Foret beaten around 3.5 lengths by Lyphard. He ended 1972 with a rating of 124, which dropped to 119 in 1973.

If Grey Mirage ran to his rating of 124 that day, it would put BG's 14lb Lockinge beating of him at 138.

Brigadier Gerard's next race was the Westbury Stakes at Sandown over 10f. (I'm using a poundage of 2.1 lbs per length over 10f, in line with the mile poundage).

Here he gave Ballyhot a half a length beating whist giving him a stone, a 15lb beating in all. Ballyhot had been last of 4 in BG's St James's Palace the year before, and went on to win a couple of stakes races at Doncaster and Deauville, finishing with a Timeform rating of 123. Sandown was his debut at 4, but he only had two more runs afterwards - a 5 length third behind Riverman in the Prix d'Ispahan, and a well beaten unclassified finish in the Prix Caracalla at Saint-Cloud. He was rated at 121 in 1972, which would put BG on 136.

The 3rd horse, Pembroke Castle, was getting 8lbs after WFA and was beaten 2.5 lengths, a total of 13lbs. Pembroke Castle was rated 124 as a 4yo the previous year. At 5, he finished second in what is now the Earl of Sefton when carrying a penalty before Sandown, and then took BG on again in the Prince of Wales's on what turned out to be his last start. He was rated 120 in 1972; a 13lb beating suggests a winning rating of 133 for BG.

The 4th horse, Fair World, was rated 114 in 1971. In '72, he was well beaten in the old Coronation Stakes over course and distance at Sandown, just over 2 lengths 4th of 5 in the Hardwicke, tailed off in the King George and well beaten in the St Simon Stakes at Newbury. He finished the year rated 113. BG gave him a 24lb beating, suggesting a rating of 137.

The last horse was Juggernaut, beaten a further neck. Rated 110 as a 3yo having been unplaced in the Derby and King Edward VII Stakes, he otherwise stuck to handicaps as a 4yo, winning the London Gold Cup at Newbury on his prior start. His rating of only 104 in 1972 would suggest a lower winning rating of only 128. That appears to hold the form down, but in any event the highest rating you could expect for the Westbury would be in the range of 133-137.

BG's third race as a 4yo was in the Prince of Wales's Stakes at Royal Ascot. Then a Group 2 open to 3yos, he gave the runner-up Steel Pulse 3lbs (after WFA) and a 5 length beating, a 14lb beating in all. Steel Pulse was rated 129 as a 2yo after beating Riverman in the Criterium de Maisons-Laffitte and finishing a close second in the Grand Criterium at Longchamp and the Observer Gold Cup (Racing Post Trophy) at Doncaster. Beaten half a length with a penalty in the Craven, he dead-heated for 4th in the Guineas and was a never-nearer 8th in the Derby. After Ascot, however, he came out to win the Irish Derby by a length from Derby 6th and future Gordon Stakes winner Scottish Rifle, with the third a further 6 lengths back to Irish Guineas winner Ballymore. Unfortunately that was the peak of his year, as he was well beaten in the King George, Leger, Arc, Champion Stakes and Washington DC International. He finished the year rated 125, which would suggest a winning rating for BG of 139.

The third place is our friend from the Westbury Stakes, Pembroke Castle. This time BG gave him a 17lb beating, suggesting a winning rating of 137. That puts the winning rating for the Prince of Wales' somewhere in the range of 137-139.

After his wins in the Eclipse and King George, where he didn't need to run to his best, and his defeat to Roberto at York, BG came back to a mile to defend the QEII. Unfortunately he had another small field, with just 3 opponents.

He met Sparkler for the first time since being run to a head on very soft ground over course and distance in the previous year's St James's Palace Stakes, but this time the ground was Firm. BG gave Sparkler 7 lbs and a 6 length beating, a 23lb beating in all. Sparkler had finished his 3yo season rated 130, and at 4 won the Queen Anne by .75 lengths and a short head, was a well beaten last in a 3-runner Sussex Stakes, a moderate 4th in the Hungerford, a .75 length winner of the Prix Quincey at Deauville, a winner in Germany and a 2nd in the Prix Perth. He finished 1972 rated 129, which would put BG on a huge 153 if Sparkler ran to form.

Third place in the QEII, a further 5 lengths back, was Redundant. Also getting 7lbs from BG, he was beaten by 36lbs in total. Redundant was rated 105 in 1971 as a 2yo. At 3 he finished tailed off in the Greenham but came back to win the Britannia handicap at Royal Ascot and following up in a handicap at Brighton. He then finished 5th, behind Sparkler, in the Hungerford, before successfully dropping back to handicap company when winning the September handicap at Sandown. He finished 1972 rated 120; which would put BG on 156 through him.

So as in the previous year, Brigadier Gerard's QEII win looks like it could have been rated well over 150 on the bare form. But again, we've got to deal with the fact that it was a tiny field. It was, however, a course record by a full second (although you might expect a record when the best horse to ever run over course and distance gets Firm ground) although only around 19lbs faster than the 0.5 length Royal Lodge winner Adios later in the day.

And that's it, with the other races omitted for the reasons given earlier. With the exception of some question marks over the true worth of his second QEII win, which could conceivably have been rated higher, I think this shows that Timeform's rating of Brigadier Gerard was pretty consistent with how he would have been rated for the same performances today. They settled on 144, and any notions that his rating was depressed due to a lower poundage than that afforded to Frankel's races don't appear to hold water.

One thing is definitely true though - they would have given each other one hell of a race!
 
Gareth

Give me a shout for any historical Timeform Annual ratings, I should be able to dig them out without too much bother.
 
Brilliant, Gareth. Many thanks. I suppose it at least helps get Frankel's previous, over-hyped performances into some kind of perspective :whistle:
 
The first race at Goodwood in 1971 was a 5f, not 6f, nursery. Sorry.

DO, it's from the Raceform-Up-To-Date Flat Annual. Going allowance is given as 0.50 secs per furlong. Their standards then were 59.4 (5f), 72.4 (6f), 100 (8f), 127.4 (10f), 156 (12f) and 182 (14f).
 
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Many thanks, Gus. I was aware the standards were modified on an ongoing basis - presumably they still are - but the same distances 30 years later had faster standards:

5f - 56.7
6f - 69.8
8f -96.5
10f (f 192y) -124.8
14f -179.0

Three seconds per race is a huge difference. I wonder if there were different criteria in the calculations.
 
Ascot 25 Sept 1971 (firm, "wind slight behind):

2.00 (6f, 2-y-o fillies, maiden at closing, £2136 to winner, 16 ran) - Calve 2 8-8 76.32s (2l, 1.5l)

2.35 (8f, Group 2, £5761 to winner, 3 ran) - Brigadier Gerard 3 8-8 101.39s (8l, 10l)

3.05 (6f, nursery, £1623 to winner, 10 ran) - Luanda 2 8-5 76.37s (nk, 4l)

3.35 (6f, conditions, £3688 to winner, 7 ran) - Abergwaun 3 8-13 74.52s (hd, 2.5l)

4.05 (8f, 2-y-o Group 2, £5882 to winner, 7 ran) - Yaroslav 2 8-11 104.74s (1.5l, 3l)

4.35 (12f, hcap, £1317 to winner, 6 ran) Sol'argent 4 9-6 156.72s (3l, 2l)

Going allowance stated to be minus 0.10 secs per furlong.

Standards were 77s, 103s and 154s.
 
Gareth

Give me a shout for any historical Timeform Annual ratings, I should be able to dig them out without too much bother.

That would be great David - if you have the 1972 book handy and can grab the ratings for:

Gray Mirage
Leander
Ballyhot
Pembroke Castle
Fair World
Juggernaut
Steel Pulse
Sparkler
Redundant

it would help firm up the above (or throw the cat amongst the pigeons!).
 
Ascot 25 Sept 1971 (firm, "wind slight behind):

2.35 (8f, Group 2, £5761 to winner, 3 ran) - Brigadier Gerard 3 8-8 101.39s (8l, 10l)

4.05 (8f, 2-y-o Group 2, £5882 to winner, 7 ran) - Yaroslav 2 8-11 104.74s (1.5l, 3l)

I'm wary enough about standard times these days let alone from 40 years ago, but at least here we can make a like-for-like comparison between the final times of these two races, which gives us a ceiling figure for Brigadier Gerard.

BG ran the race 3.35 seconds quicker than Yaroslav. These days, that would be called 20 lengths, or 53 lbs based on the poundage used earlier. Timeform's WFA scale in 1971 suggested 2yos were 26lbs immature compared to 3yos over a mile at this time of year (although these days its less - around 19lbs). Taking the figure used back then, adding the 3lb extra that Yaroslav carried and subtracting it from the 53lbs difference in performance makes BG 24lbs faster.

Yaroslav finished 1971 with a Timeform rating of 117. If he ran a timefigure equal to that on the day, it would put Brigadier Gerard on a maximum of... 141.

That maximum would be higher if you used their modern WFA scale, but the other races on the day might pull the figure down anyway. Still, good to know that we're in the right ballpark.
 
Racehorses of 1972 Ratings

Gray Mirage = 124
Leander = 116
Ballyhot = 121
Pembroke Castle = 120
Fair World = 113
Juggernaut = 104
Steel Pulse = 125
Sparkler = 129
Redundant = 120
 
From Wiki:


The standard for the Newbury straight mile is 97s. Hawk Wing ran it in 1-36.78. This means they were averaging a fraction over 6 lengths per second, which is a winning distance of just over 13 lengths. At 2.25lbs per length it's a 29+lbs margin of victory (at 2.625 it's over 34 lbs). Mind you, they were probably travelling slower than at the average speed in the final furlong.

i timed the length of HW himself DO...0.166 in the final furlong

thanks Gus..brilliant effort
 
Many thanks, Gus. I was aware the standards were modified on an ongoing basis - presumably they still are - but the same distances 30 years later had faster standards:

5f - 56.7
6f - 69.8
8f -96.5
10f (f 192y) -124.8
14f -179.0

Three seconds per race is a huge difference. I wonder if there were different criteria in the calculations.

those standards are based on a totally different class level DO

i'll check the relationship between each distance..i'll wager they are very similar
 
Gareth


could you let me know what TF rating the handicap winners from both meetings were..this will give a good handle on whether they were B or C class races

if you feeling really generous could you list the TF ratings for all winners on each day

Would the mile races at Ascot both been over the straight or round course i wonder
 
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Amazing stuff.

In one morning Gareth has made a very close comparison between Brigadier Gerard and Frankel yet Phil Smith gave up trying to compare Arkle with Kauto Star...
 
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Racehorses of 1972 Ratings

Gray Mirage = 124
Leander = 116
Ballyhot = 121
Pembroke Castle = 120
Fair World = 113
Juggernaut = 104
Steel Pulse = 125
Sparkler = 129
Redundant = 120

Many thanks for those David!

I've updated my 1972 post with that information. It brings the Lockinge, Westbury and Prince of Wales's ratings down, but the 120 rating of Redundant asks new questions about just what BG did to him and Sparkler in the '72 QEII. Is there anything in Brigadier Gerard's essay that explains how the ratings for that race were approached?
 
Gareth


could you let me know what TF rating the handicap winners from both meetings were..this will give a good handle on whether they were B or C class races

if you feeling really generous could you list the TF ratings for all winners on each day

Will try and pull a few out where I can.

Would the mile races at Ascot both been over the straight or round course i wonder

QEII and Royal Lodge were both run over the Old (Round) Mile.
 
Well done Gareth. Have read thread with great interest as races were before my time by a few years though I read old Stud and Stable magazines. joe Mercer was just after a plane crash 72 Prince of Wales stks and collapsed after unsaddling if memory serves so BG won that race "unassisted from the saddle", J.Mercer's words. His York defeat came after an Eclipse win on terrible ground (Roberto withdrawn, was the race run at Kempton that year?) and King George win that pushed his stamina to the limit. Home Guard was in Eclipse as pacemaker for Roberto; J Hislop berated M V O Brien for withdrawing Roberto. HG ran next in the Stewards Cup, btn a short head giving the winner 30lbs.
Looking at Grey Mirage's race programme tells its own story_ they dont race horses like that anymore. Imagine; all weather gallops in their infancy, none of the lasers, massagers,scopes, even horse walkers bar human ones, poorer roads and travel vehicles etc.
 
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