brighton 3.50

gigilo

gigilo

Senior Jockey
Joined
May 5, 2011
Messages
9,683
Priced up wrong the two favs ivory lace 3/1 (hasn't won for almost 2 seasons and foxtrot alpha 3/1 improving likes ground and track but off 63 price this is a different class race.The 9/2 about lastkingofscotland 9/2 365,boyles,hills looks the fella that should be fav,beaten over a mile on saturday on soft,has won here over a mile so now dropping to the 7fs on soft looks just right.The run at leicester off 77 5 pound lower mark today was eyecatching full of running in a far superior race.I'm not a great fan of hayley turner very one dimensional and she rides a lot of non triers so i've had a small win at 9/2 and a decent sized bet to hopefully trade off it should really be fav this around the 11/4 mark.
Slugger o toole looks interesting as well just to keep an eye on.
 
i'm full of admiration if you can do this regularly..but..i know that if i had the skill i would get very bored very quickly doing this..trading isn't for me..even though i know you can probably win over a long period..might sound daft..but i do need something more than just watching a price contract to hold my interest

maybe i'm alone in that thinking i don't know

i'm not knocking this by the way..just saying
 
If you're backing horses that shorten, you don't need to be laying them back as you're buying commodities at above their market value.

If you make a horse 3/1 and you can get 6/1, you should really be backing it at all rates down to 4/1 and only really laying it back at 5/2 or shorter.

Laying back something just because it has shortened will not secure long-term profits (unless you lay below it's natural price). Backing horses that shorten all the time and not laying them back will do.
 
Gamla Stan said:
If you're backing horses that shorten, you don't need to be laying them back as you're buying commodities at above their market value.

If you make a horse 3/1 and you can get 6/1, you should really be backing it at all rates down to 4/1 and only really laying it back at 5/2 or shorter.

Laying back something just because it has shortened will not secure long-term profits (unless you lay below it's natural price). Backing horses that shorten all the time and not laying them back will do.
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ok..ignoring the lay back...what if they were the right price to start with?..and are backed into a false short price..say its 6/1..backed to 3/1..but is actually a 6/1 shot ...and if you back it down to 4/1..you are actually getting bad value.

as far as i can see..the aim of this thread is to back a horse at 6..that will shorten..rightly or wrongly shorten..with the aim of laying stake back for a no lose bet

or have i got it wrong?
 
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EC1 said:
ok..ignoring the lay back...what if they were the right price to start with?..and are backed into a false short price..
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Betfair and the way the SP is calculated allows for very few horses to go off false prices these days, despite what people might say. The markets on horse racing are liquid enough to allow a natural SP to be returned for most horses.

On our trading floor, if a punter was consistently backing 8/1 shots that went off 5/1 or shorter at SP, we wouldn't have a debate as to whether they went off a false price. That punter would simply be a trading risk.
 
Gamla Stan said:
Betfair and the way the SP is calculated allows for very few horses to go off false prices these days, despite what people might say. The markets on horse racing are liquid enough to allow a natural SP to be returned for most horses.

On our trading floor, if a punter was consistently backing 8/1 shots that went off 5/1 or shorter at SP, we wouldn't have a debate as to whether they went off a false price. That punter would simply be a trading risk.
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ok Stan..i didn't know the market was that accurate that few will go off at a false short price

like i say..its not my area this at all..i like reading about others who can do it..but not my cup of tea really..

will be watching with interest anyway
 
Very rarely do any trading just when there are a few stand outs they're just to steal a few quid now and again when the prices are wrong,you'd need a miracle to be doing these day in day out and making it worth while.My turnover most days is between 3-6k it virtually never includes trades,i only put them on here because i knew they would win someone a few quid.The same with equueleus,was always going to go off around 3/1 or 7/2 if not shorter.
 
gigilo said:
Very rarely do any trading just when there are a few stand outs they're just to steal a few quid now and again when the prices are wrong,you'd need a miracle to be doing these day in day out and making it worth while.My turnover most days is between 3-6k it virtually never includes trades,i only put them on here because i knew they would win someone a few quid.The same with equueleus,was always going to go off around 3/1 or 7/2 if not shorter.
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i think you have got many people's interest anyway..very good reading imo.

i thought you were mainly doing the trade..as main idea behind it..i got wrong end of stick
 
I t was just to give anyone who wanted to follow the bets a winning day thats all,the main bet was the trade but similar to equueleus still had a small bet the three horses i put up.Does anyone know where i can get placepots on that don't go in the pool.:whistle:
 
And does anyone know if any betting operator offers reverse forecasts at fixed odds rather than having to take SP?
 
gigilo said:
I t was just to give anyone who wanted to follow the bets a winning day thats all,the main bet was the trade but similar to equueleus still had a small bet the three horses i put up.Does anyone know where i can get placepots on that don't go in the pool.:whistle:
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You can get them on with most bookmakers in Ireland no problem.
 
10k or 20k max payout depending on the bookmaker. You'd want to be splitting your perm up between 3/4 different firms.
 
Grey said:
Thanks, Rory. By "individually", do you mean you'd have to ring up, or what?
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No. If you do a SFC online, you are quoted a "live" price. If you put the same selections in a RFC you're not quoted the price online, but it may still apply.
 
rorydelargy said:
No. If you do a SFC online, you are quoted a "live" price. If you put the same selections in a RFC you're not quoted the price online, but it may still apply.
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Thanks, I'll check that out next time I feel inspired enough to know who's going to finish in the first two.
 
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