Bumper at Navan Sunday.

C

Colin Phillips

At the Start
Joined
Dec 22, 2003
Messages
13,268
Location
Talbot Green
A Listed fillies bumper at Navan tomorrow any thoughts on the likely betting?

Any Bumper experts want to have a go at pricing it up?

I'm interested in Valleymount third in a Group 2 at Leopardstown last Christmas-time.

Thanks in anticipation.
 
I'm guessing:

2/1 Supreme Carolina
9/4 Missunited
3/1 Valleymount
6/1 Shu Lewis
10/1 A Country Girl

I'd be with you though, Colin, if conditions are testing, and the more testing the better for her chances. The age advantage becomes important in those circumstances.
 
Had a bash at it Colin:

7/2 Shu Lewis
9/2 Hats And Heels
5/1 Missunited
7/1 Supreme Carolina
8/1 A Country Girl
12/1 Carries Darling
12/1 Valleymount
14/1 Dancin' Glory
14/1 Ms Bliss
14/1 Thynetocatcher
20/1 Strange Talk
33/1 I Never Knew That

Thought it was interesting that Ms Bliss has changed yards - ran for Eoin Doyle when runner-up at Punchestown on debut last month but now under the care of Miss Helena Keaveney who I know nothing about other than this appears to be her first runner as a trainer and she rode in the late 1990's. Imagine Ms Bliss would have set connections back a few quid after a promising debut like that.

Good luck to anyone betting in this - looks a very competitive bumper to me and can see any one of about 5 or 6 taking this.
 
A lot depends on what connections think about Supreme Carolina's chances. On breeding she probably prefers slower ground than she got at Cheltenham, where she ran a respectable race. They might fancy her tomorrow.

Missunited has Nina Carberry up, so her connections have made it very clear they want this one.

Valleymount was maybe a bit disappointing last time out, she was beaten a long way, and she has a new rider up tomorrow (her 7th jockey in seven starts) who is not one of the top names.
 
Irish Stamp said:
Had a bash at it Colin:

7/2 Shu Lewis
9/2 Hats And Heels
5/1 Missunited
7/1 Supreme Carolina
8/1 A Country Girl
12/1 Carries Darling
12/1 Valleymount
14/1 Dancin' Glory
14/1 Ms Bliss
14/1 Thynetocatcher
20/1 Strange Talk
33/1 I Never Knew That
Click to expand...

Now there's a difference of opinion. :lol:

I should have mentioned Hats And Heels. If they fancy Carolina, which I suspect they will, this one will drift.
 
You can't beat a differnece of opinion every now and then Grey - her G2 placing stands out like a sore thumb form wise when in front of the very decent Rebel Fitz though RF has since reversed form with the runner-up on a couple of occasions so it's fair to say she ran below form that day.

Agree on Supreme Carolina but whatever connections think of her I'd far rather have Katy riding one I'm on that Patrick and as you say connections clearly think a lot of Missunited.

Heard that JP McManus had been sniffing around Shu Lewis and she's unbeaten in 3 starts to date including at the Punchestown Festival on her debut whilst she showed she handles soft ground LTO.

I was told early this year to back anything that Jane Mangan rides and sit back and count the money - it's gone ok so far so will be backing Carries Darling anyway as she seemed better suited to more positive (sat mid-div rather than out the back) riding last time out when beating a well backed p2p winner.

Martin
 
If Shu Lewis is anything close to 13/2 tissue price then this could forever live in the memory as the Shu Lewis weekend. Winters thinks his is very good. Wouldn't like to be the odds compilers pricing up thus tonight. Several of these will be ploughed into in the early Market tomorrow. Great looking race.
 
First show from B365:

Missunited 3/1
Shu Lewis 4/1
Hats And Heels 9/2
Supreme Carolina 6/1
A Country Girl 7/1
Valleymount 8/1

Shu Lewis and Valleymount have an age advantage here which could turn out to be important.

I think the price about Valleymount is good value. Her placing in an open Grade 2 at Leopardstown last Christmas has already been mentioned, but her run behind Samain at the Curragh in April was also very tasty. That race was full of good horses. Whatwillwecallher, Mississippi River, He's A Delight, Bullock Harbour, Double Double, Dylan Ross and Black Benny were all in behind. Her run last month looks disappointing but conditions were very bad that day and Galway is such a special track that you have to forgive a horse which doesn't particularly take to it.

It's a hot race and Shu Lewis is only one horse to worry about, but I think conditions today are in Valleymount's favour. I must admit, though, I would prefer to see a more experienced rider on board.
 
Do any of you lads read the formbook? How hard could it have been to work out Missunited was the one?
 
On The Bridle said:
You will have no worries on the jock score Grey - he will going for a double after winning the Troytown!:ninja:
Click to expand...

If only. Unfortunately he's going to be feeling gutted rather than elated. He was unfortunate to be left in front earlier than he would have wanted.
 
Supreme Carolina must be overpriced on her run with Misunited - she is 13 pounds better off for 3 lengths.
 
Yes, but would you swap Nina Carberry for Mr N M Kelly plus 7lbs? If the answer is yes, the turnaround becomes 6lbs for 3 lengths.

I think the answer is indeed yes. Nina's going to have to judge the pace she's going to set, so her experience at this level will be useful.
 
I've backed Shu Lewis at 13/2 and Supreme Carolina at 11/2 - Misunited may well hack up but is too short now.
 
I would always go for the favourites in these sort of races - raw ability and all that...
 
Valleymount runs a shocker, you'd have to say after that that she's gone for the time being. I was right about one thing, though, the older horses finished 1, 2 and 4. The extra year makes a big difference in these conditions.
 
On The Bridle said:
That was some boil over today - the winner is obviously good and went under the radar.
Click to expand...

The Racing Post analysis gave it a squeak. But you'd have to be inspired to back it. A bunch of them in a heap. I'd say it wasn't much of a race.
 
Last edited:
It was run in a very slow time, just a few seconds faster than the juveniles in the first race, who also had hurdles to contend with.
 
Grey said:
It was run in a very slow time, just a few seconds faster than the juveniles in the first race, who also had hurdles to contend with.
Click to expand...

You expect something to quicken though. The winner was off the bridle early in the straight and just plugged away. You'd like to think a decent mare would have put her to the sword a furlong and a half down and gone away. I just think they are much of a muchness. Maybe they are all decent but Supreme Carolina was beaten by One Term, so the overall form might not be brilliant.
 
Back
Top