Bumper form to hurdles?

Desert Orchid

Desert Orchid

Senior Jockey
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Aug 2, 2005
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One thing I've never studied in depth - too late now... - is how to translate Bumper form to hurdles.

Has anyone on here studied it at all (I'm thinking maybe Maruco?)?

I have noticed that in the Timeform horses to follow books they tend to talk promisingly of horses with bumper ratings in the mid-110s-mid-120s, as though they're going to make up into serious hurdlers down the line.

Sir Gerhard and Appreciate It got Cheltenham Bumper ratings in the high 130s and went on to high ratings over hurdles but does 20lbs or so as a rule of thumb make sense?
 
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Trusting them is a tough call sometimes.

Take Inoui Machin yesterday: He looked head and shoulders above the rest but jumped like he had never seen a hurdle in his life.

Sure he'll come on for the experience and will definitely win races but he's a classic example of how relying on bumper form can go wrong.

I don't know if 20lbs or so as a rule of thumb make sense but what does make sense is if the win a bumper for Willie they are 75% certain to be winning a hurdle race.

One that I thought would be good was American Mike who got a nhf rating of 138 before he went hurdling and won 1 poorly contested hurdle at 1/6 and nothing else.

I very seldom back bumper horses as most of the form isn't worth the paper it's written on IMO.....half the trainers have no idea how the horse the thought was moderate just pissed up at 50/1:lol:

The Supreme winner never ran in a bumper so I prefer waiting till they win at least 1 hurdle race and go from there
 
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I rarely bet in bumpers and tend not to take the form into account when looking at hurdles races but I'm just interested in the kind of notional average differential in ratings between the two codes.

I have neither the time nor the inclination to do a study but it strikes me as the kind of thing some enthusiast might do (and profit from) in much the same way as BH does his forensic analysis of juveniles.

The question occurred to me specifically today when looking at tomorrow's Greatwood. A seemingly poor maiden hurdler suddenly returns to a bumper race and posts a 118RPR before a hefty defeat back in a poor hurdle race. Then he runs out when getting into a challenging position next time. Then he moves to Willie Mullins and now he's favourite for the Greatwood. If 20lbs does qualify as a r-o-t differential, are we looking at a 138 horse running off 115?
 
Here are my unscientific thoughts, untested hypotheses if you like.

Bumpers are very specialised events. Flat races of 2m+ with weights of 11 stone plus, happening mostly on winter ground. The best bumper horses tend to be bred for it, i.e. they have other bumper winners prominent in their pedigrees.

Horses with quality flat pedigrees often get backed in bumpers but usually disappoint. You have to ask yourself, why do such horses turn up in bumpers in the first place? There are occasional exceptions, usually on faster/less testing ground, but even if they win a bumper these horses are unlikely to improve their RPRs much when going over hurdles.

On the other hand when NH bred horses with hurdlers and chasers in their pedigree, but no particular history of bumper winners, manage to win a bumper it is often a good sign for the future. I tend to factor in a likely RPR improvement of around 10 lbs when they turn up in a maiden or novice hurdle.

Bumper bred horses, however, even if they have excelled in bumpers, won't necessarily increase their RPRs when they move on to races over obstacles.
 
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One of the reasons horses are brought on early to run in bumpers is to sell them if they win...Wasn't it Ronnie O'leary who made a small fortune recomending and selling bumper winners to JP ?
 
Bumpers are very obviously treated/respected very differently depending on which side of the Irish sea you are! Which is something that has always intrigued me.
 
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