Bush V Kerry

eric, you should know better than that - you bet on what is likely to happen, or when the odds that are being offered on a proposition are greater than the likelihood of that proposition occurring, not on what you want to happen. As it happens, I have had a little 13/8 Kerry because that is too big, but I haven't forgotten my £1,000 on Gore - losing which was a bigger travesty than Rhinestone Cowboy in the Championship Bumper.
 
OSAMA has come out to boost the Bush campaign----a Bush victory will incite continued hatred among ISLAM FOR THE WEST---

GET ON ----Bush 1.85 and shortening--on Betfair!!!!!!!!!


:angy: :angy: :angy:

Thanks Osama!!

:D :D :D
 
Unless you let your heart rule your head when betting, whether or not you are a reader of The Guardian is irrelevant.

I read The Guardian - or used to anyway, before it dumbed down - I want Kerry to win, but I expect Bush to win.
 
Ian,
have you lost the plot?

There have been at least two postings recently where you have not blamed Murdoch or the Big Three.

:D
 
Colin,

They've all dumbed down, embracing tabloid items like the bullet-point side-bar, promoting ''celebrity'' journalism onto the news pages and generally making the broadsheets look like the mid-market papers looked 20 years ago.

The Independent is no exception, I'm afraid.

The Sunday Sport, which actually was quite a clever parody of papers like the NOTW and the red tops and, had it been produced by Chris Morris, would have been acclaimed a such, ran a hilarious such item when the first Gulf War broke out, entitled: ''Ten Countries We've Stuffed At War'' (''we gave Napoleon a good slap at Waterloo'' etc).

Nt so much a case of art imitiating life, as tart imitating life. :lol:

That kind of sums up the British press for me nowadays
 
An interesting stat I heard the other day:

For the last SEVENTEEN US Presidential elections, the result has matched exactly the result of the last Washington Redskins home game before the election. If the Redskins win, the party in power retains the Presidency. If they lose, power changes hands. As I write the score in tonights game is

Washington 14 Green Bay 20

in the last few minutes.

Fingers crossed.
 
According to one site I have visited, nearly £4 million has been traded on BetFair alone on the Presidential Election.

I've been scanning the various polls including the state-by-state polls and the markets and it's hard to read the outcome. ABC tonight has Bush leading 49-48 but that's statistically insignificant and a tad irrelevant.

The election is decided in the Electoral College and it doesn't do Bush any good to pile up huge majorities in states like Utah and Idaho, which bring only a handful of votes to the table. Kerry should win most of the north-east and the far west including California but, as we all know, there are a number of so-called "swing states" (ranging from 6-10) where the election will be decided.

My current reading is that Kerry will win Pennsylvania but Ohio and Florida are on a knife-edge. Look out for a surprise or two such as Bush winning Hawaii but Kerry doing better in the south-west.

Gut feeling...a VERY long night and day on Wednesday and Kerry scrapes home. Why ? In 2000, the last polls gave Bush a 2-4% lead over Gore but the Democrats got the vote out and almost won it. My guess is Kerry will win the popular vote by 1-2% but whether he will have the right votes in the right places I'm not sure.

One bet I wouldn't have is the 12/1 from Hills that there will be a 269-269 tie in the Electoral College. On the basis of the current polls, that should be more a 35/1 shot apparently.

For what it's worth, I think the Republicans will retain control of the Senate and House of Reps, the former narrowly, say, 51-49 and the latter by less than 10 but that would be enough.
 
I'm not close enough to it to be as confident as I would be over a British Election.

I had expected Bush to win but tales I'm hearing of an unprecedentedly high turnout in some of the swing States could count against him.

My big problem with Kerry is that, unlike a Clinton or a JFK, he has no ''vision'' nor charisma generally.
 
If Ohio is the key state I think Kerry might swing it due to the high unemployment and decline in manufacturing there . It is bizarre for us Europeans to look upon this country which has such an impact on our lives . It is utterly amazing that 40% roughly of this population think that Saddam had WMD and should be stopped for that reason alone . It is even more terrifying that they do not realise that this conflict has a subtext of BLOOD FOR OIL .I know it's not polite but how stupid are they to follow the son of the former President who coincidentally has the same cabinet elect. Let's not pretent . He is a Prince Regent Please don't let this clown be elected again . It's bad enough that his father had 1 term . Ronald Reagan has ALOT to answer for . He began this cycle of Christian Fundamentalism and Thatcher assisted him :ph34r:
 
it is clear that Kerry will make it, so - from the betting point - everything bigger than evens is a gift.
the bush factor is far to much flattered by our perception of the us foreign policy. here he has his strength but - unfortunately for most of us - the voters will give other issues more importance.
rooster booster bush vs hardy eustace kerry - we here know already the outcome....
 
If I were American then i'd vote Bush but I wouldn't be getting that excited about it. I don't think that Kerry is any good. He's the American version of Michael Howard.
 
Kerry could be and probably is a cardboard cutout. It is Bush v Not Bush.

I suspect that Mrs Clinton would have romped home.
 
AMAZING---on BETFAIR---KERRY has gone almost 1/2 and the polls are still open for another 3 hours on East Coast and 6 on west.

Bush must have jumped the 1st few poorly.

:angry: :angry: :angy:
 
I know its early but,


Early exit polls numbers:


Kerry - Bush
AZ 45-55
CO 48-51
LA 42-57
MI 51-48
WI 52-48
PA 60-40
OH 52-48
FL 51-48
MICH 51-47
NM 50-48
MINN 58-40
WISC 52-43
IOWA 49-49
NH 57-41

Kerry is sweeping Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio!


***BUSH IS LOSING THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE***
and probably the popular vote, too

- According to most major polls, the national race is tied
- 2/3 of undecideds traditionally break for the challenger
- This will give Kerry the popular vote
- But the electoral vote is the more important one
- 270 electoral votes are needed to win
- Kerry is winning or tied in the key battle ground states

http://www.slate.com
Kerry 299 Electoral Votes, 149 solid, 75 likely, 75 iffy
Bush 239 Electoral Votes, 168 solid, 59 likely, 12 iffy

http://www.electoral-vote.com
Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 283,Bush 246

http://www.race2004.net
If the election were held today we project:
Kerry wins the presidency with 296 electoral votes.
Bush places second with 242 electoral votes.
Kerry wins the popular vote with 55,075,004 votes (49.35%).
Bush places second with 54,674,429 votes (48.99%).


---------------------
 
Seeing betfair odds in this moment say that Kerry is an almost sure new president.
I must confess that I am amazed and very surprise about americans voting in this way.
 
The high turnout based on new voter registration and a strong campaign to get 18-24 year olds out to vote has probably done for Bush and the Republicans. The exit poll data from Wonkette and the swings on the spread betting markets suggests the word is spreading on the Kerry success.

If Kerry wins Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania the election is over but the Senate and congressional races will also be interesting as the night unfolds. I can't help but feel there are some surprises still ahead of us :o
 
It's looking like Bush now. Florida has been called for Bush and Ohio looks to be going the same way.
 
Back
Top