Cesarewitch/Dewhurst

Frankel

Frankel

Senior Jockey
Joined
Jan 12, 2014
Messages
4,942
Thought this deserves a thread.

Come on then who wins the Cesarewitch?
No strong view on the race from me. Have long been intrigued by Renneti who lines up with Spencer on board.

Is the Dewhurst just a smash up between Air Force Blue and Emotionless? Both look the business.

Autumn stakes looks interesting also with the likes of Ibn Malik taking park.
 
Whether Low Key deserves to be as low as 6/1 for the Ces is open to question but he looked good LTO and only has a minor increase to deal with, while at a much bigger price Bayan looks tasty.

He's significantly better off with Quick Jack than he would be were this race run over hurdles and let's no forget that he won last year's Ladbroke off a mark of 146 yet runs off a flat rating on Saturday of 84.

Always difficult to compare ratings across codes but Low Key's all out hurdle win a few weeks back came off 129.
 
Think you could make a decent case for Noble Silk at 33/1 if the ground dries out to good or quicker He was making a decent looking challenge when getting wiped out in this last year off the same mark.Decent effort in the Ascot stakes 4L behind Clondaw warrior and Fun Mac this term just run down over 20f. He should be able to pick up a decent position just off the pace from stall 13 and given a bit more luck in running looks a solid shout to be there or there abouts at a price.
 
I've been following Noble Silk for a long time now so can't desert him now. Having been without a computer for a week quick glance makes me think Deauville Dancer looks interesting.
 
So many of the leading contenders come off the back of bad or frankly dubious runs and the form of heartbreaks last win doesn't look good. Low key has to be of interest with small rise in weights but I'm going for oriental fox. Clearly the class horse in the race . Good draw and will be right on the ground which could surely be quicker than stated?
 
dewhurst looks a 2 horse obvious..neither one of the big two appeal at the prices though..i think one at a decent price is worth a bit on..MASSAAT.

His first run marked him out as well above average..gave cymric a near 10 length start at Sandown from 4 out and nearly beat him in a race where it was a disadvantage to be away from the pace...that one won a G1 in france last week.

For a horse to run to that level when disadvantaged by the pace FTO it shows he could improve on this run to surprise a few people this afternoon. At 20.0..i don't mind chancing him..had a bit to place too.
 
William Of Orange is number 7 on the card, drawn 7 and finished 7th last time out....hopefully its a lucky omen then......

Maybe he'll start at SP 7-1 which would be amusing. I hope he wins by 7 lengths to boot.:)
 
Last edited:
Good effort that from Gifted Master. Was hoping trainer would mention the Jersey. Could be very interesting in that.

Agree EC about Massaat. Interested to see how he gets on here.
 
I wouldn't be surprised if Air Force Blue gets chinned here and they blame the ground-the Tabor interview has made him a ridiculous sub 1.7 on betfair.
 
I don't think Godolphin and the Dubai fellas are gambling types. :)
If you have backed Emotionless I wouldn't be concerned.
 
Last edited:
EC1 said:
EMOTIONLESS hasn't put a decent time in yet..i didn't really get the love tbh..visually good yes

Bayan will get a few bob of mine in this..i like the booking of Cam Hardie
Click to expand...

You always hope the visual impression can be backed up. Was thrown in to the fire today. Whether that is as good as he is time will tell. The 2nd is smart too.
 
Last edited:
Frankel said:
You always hope the visual impression can be backed up. Was thrown in to the fire today. Whether that is as good as he is time will tell. The 2nd is smart too.
Click to expand...

if they don't back it up on overall time or sectional or both..i don't really rate them too highly..he just didn't excite on either tbh. i'll take such as the winner and massaat evidence of ability over those types mesen. if E was as good as many thought he would have shown it by now..and he hasn't..not yet anyway

hard luck Clive.
 
Last edited:
Frankel said:
Unlucky Clive. Hope you backed e/w.
The winner was obvious :)
Click to expand...

First bet in four weeks and this is where we live and learn. Have a natural aversion to e/w to the point of prejudice but he really was a solid bet for a place
 
Frankel said:
Won it like the good horse he is. Disappointing with Emotionless obviously.
Click to expand...

Lost a shoe during the race and was bandaged up on that leg afterwards. Assuming no serious damage, he can be forgiven this run - losing a shoe will unbalance and inconvenience a big raw inexperienced 2yo even more than usual, especially on Newmarket's undulations.
 
Emotionless found to be lame trainer Charlie Appleby says "a chip was identified in left fore knee"
 
Last edited:
You did get the impression his run was too bad to be true.
Hopefully we get to see his potential next year.
 
Last edited:
i got a figure of 123 for Air Force Blue.. Minding ran a 120 which is a very nice figure for a filly. Even though she disappointed... i still have Promising Run as having..just the biggest figure of the season..124. Might be slightly dubious though

Promising Run's time on 25 September was nearly 4 seconds faster than Crazy Horse on same day..and even though CH's race wasn't truly run..its still some figure for PR..will it be another Godolphin not carry forward though? One rider to that day though was there was a tailwind..so it could have messed up things a bit..hawksmoor was beaten further by Minding but that was under different conditions to when she ran behind PR
 
Last edited:
Back
Top