Cheltenham 2016

TheBear said:
Question: Does anyone know what the oldest horse to compete at Cheltenham is? Just wondering if Uncle Junior is about to set a record tomorrow.
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Mac Vidi 1980 oldest ever placed horse at 15 yrs of age in Gold Cup - so probably older horses ran unplaced.
 
Quite incredible that a horse of that age can still be competitive in a grade 1, even taking into account that it was a different game then.
 
Who do people reckon the books will take on tomorrow?

UDS is 4/5, he might go evens for a while in the morning.

Can get 6/4 on Yanworth. Wondering if the money will just come for Ruby
 
I hope they go for UDS. There's only VVM & Douvan who are bigger certs this week. Hopefully all the sentimental money will come for SS.
 
4.50 - Cheltenham - Wednesday 16th March 2016.

Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (4yo).

Distance: 2 miles half a furlong on the Old Course

The Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle is a Grade Three handicap open to four year olds only. Another big field affair which is no easier than the Coral Cup for punters. First run in 2005 a horse has to have a minimum of three runs before it can qualify for this race. This is a bit of a lottery with the last four winners going off at 40/1, 25/1, 33/1 and 25/1. A field of 22 very lightly raced four year olds that have been campaigned with their handicap mark in mind means this is a very difficult race to assess. there is no rating ceiling for this race but the presence of the Triumph Hurdle means it is effectively a 0-145 handicap.

Trends:

Juvenile form tends to be overrated compared with all aged novice hurdle form. Juveniles that have been running against their elders could get themselves well handicapped. 6 of the 11 winners so far had run over hurdles outside Juvenile company. It's in the Juvenile events that the form is hard for the assessor to get a handle on. Horses that have run most or all of it's races in France are amongst the most difficult to handicap and 4 of the 11 winners began their hurdling careers in France with none of them running more than twice in Britain before the weights came out. Only two of the eleven winners had previously run in a handicap. 4 winners so far have sported headgear. The first 10 renewals were won by different trainers and there has been a mix of wins for both small and big yards. In 2015 Paul Nicholls won this race for the second time and he has targeted this race in recent seasons. The Fred Winter isn't the kind of race where it pays to take too much notice of where a horse is prepped.

Trends Summary:

9 winners had run within the previous 25 days and the other two within the previous 37.
Paul Nicholls has trained 50% of the win and placed horses in the last three renewals.
7 winners had run only the minimum of 3 times over hurdles.
2 of the 4 penalised winners have won.
The last four winners have gone off between 25 and 40/1.
6 of the 11 winners had run against their elders over hurdles.
Horses wearing headgear have yielded an 88% profit so far.
10 of the 11 winners were rated 124-133.
Only two winners had run in a handicap before.
No winner that that started its career under NH rules did so in Britain or Ireland.
None of the Willie Mullins' 11 runners have finished in the first 5.

Analysis:

This race is one for minimal stakes. a chance is taken on the Nick Williams trained Coo Star Sivola. He didn't seem to enjoy the heavy ground at Chepstow last time out but still ran a race full of promise in a Grade One Novice affair. Lizzie Kelly takes the ride for the first time and her five pound claim could prove very valuable. Normal improvement wouldn't make this opening mark 132 insurmountable and the few the yard have sent out recently have been performing well.

Selection:

Coo Star Sivola - 0.5 pts e/w @ 22/1. (Betvictor, Paddy Power, William Hill, Betway, 1/4 odds first 4)

edit: Fixe Le Cap could be a big danger despite shouldering top weight. I'm not buying Nicky's suggestion that he'll struggle.

 
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Bonjers said:
Rancid ride by Nina on Josies Orders. Gave him far too much to do.
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Certainly got it wrong. Seriously over-confident.

Can't help thinking Balthazar King's best form is good enough to beat Any Currency. Shame to see him blunder out of the race like that.
 
Geraghty has had a day to forget . Rides a stinker, next one breaks blood vessel, looks sure to win and horse does not stay , sees old ally bolt up from the stands and takes a crashing fall
 
Nina not guilty horse did not pick up and just stayed on up the hill - my pocket might say otherwise but head plain she was not to blame.
 
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Fine week

Champion novices Altior and Douvan look top class.

Annie was a great story in Faugheens absense

Sprinter is the story of the year

Vautour is too class. Prob never know the full story

Thistlecrack blew me away.

The real Don showed up and delivered.

The casualties are the sad point but overall one of my favourite Cheltenhams in a long time
 
Throw in Yorkhill. I'm still dribbling over him.
Will hose up in an Arkle though wouldn't mind him having crack at the Champion.
 
granger said:
Fine week

Champion novices Altior and Douvan look top class.

Annie was a great story in Faugheens absense

Sprinter is the story of the year

Vautour is too class. Prob never know the full story

Thistlecrack blew me away.

The real Don showed up and delivered.

The casualties are the sad point but overall one of my favourite Cheltenhams in a long time
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Too right
A magnificent weeks racing, Tuesday was a belter.

Financially it was steady but it looked like Davy Russel on Dandridge was coming to turn steady into excellent...alas not to be:)
 
Yeah, Tuesday was dreamsville and ensured a profit overall. Would have been better if Sizing John had gone for the JLT but can't complain really.
 
A very exciting festival with some standout performances. Altior, Douvan, Annie Power, Sprinter Sacre,Vautour, Thistlecreack and Don Cossack were all outstanding and would have graced any renewal.

Black Hercules's win was a personal highlight, he is a horse I've really liked for a long time.

The deaths, especially those of Pont Alexandre and No More Heroes who have been two of my favourites, as well as that of the very promising Long Dog, were real downers and did take some of the shine off the week.
 
It was a very frustrating week but tempered by the realisation that we saw some genuinely top class horses (which hasn't always been the case).

Altior on day one was the start of dreams followed by Douvan; then on day 2 Yorkhill and Sprinter Sacre; day 3 and Black Hercules, Vautour and Thistlecrack; and today devastating performances from Ivanovitch Gorbatov and Don Cossack.

Shame for me that I'm not a chalk-eater so trying to sniff out value was tough going although I can accept that for big hitters the big Mullins winners were arguably value prices.

I had four winning bets on day Tuesday and only broke even.
On Wednesday it was two winners for a marginal gain.
Thursday was a hefty wipeout.
Today 3 winners and a 40/1 place recouped the previous day's losses and added a marginal overall gain.

But bring on next year!

In the meantime, the Midlands National tomorrow looks like easy pickings then it'll be a relatively quite spell until Aintree and I've already backed the Grand National winner :)
 
A wonderful festival which ended up profitable after a poor day on Tuesday. Sprinter and Thistlecrack turned it around for me and a couple of doubles Annie Power/Vautour and Don C/On the Fringe were sweet


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