Cheltenham 2024 NRNB

Desert Orchid

Desert Orchid

Senior Jockey
Joined
Aug 2, 2005
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Hills are first up with the concession today.

Paul Kealy has an item at the RP in which he puts up four for an early interest.

Maybe forumites could add which other bookies follow suit over the coming days.
 
Any chance someone could post what Kealy has picked or even the article itself?
 
Here it is (available for free on mobile)

There are pros and cons when it comes to the non-runner no bet concession for the Cheltenham Festival, and if I'm going to take advantage of it I will do so a long way out.

Most firms offer non-runner no bet a couple of weeks out, but I genuinely reckon it's a waste of time by then.

The vast majority of horses have their targets well known by then, the chances of a festival-ending injury have greatly receded, and the prices, which are generally squeezed once NRNB is on offer, are hardly going to contract much more before the day.

It's a little different further out as there's much more chance of something going wrong, not only with your selection, but with potential rivals which could have a positive effect on the prices you take.

William Hill are again the first to offer the concession, going NRNB on all 28 races from Monday, and I've marked the occasion by digging out a little Lucky 15 to keep me warm for the winter.

Here are my four picks

It’s For Me

Supreme Novices' Hurdle

Odds: 10-1

There has been much talk about Jeriko Du Reponet, and Nicky Henderson clearly loves him, and that counts for a lot. He hasn't done all that much, though, and I really liked It's For Me's debut success at Punchestown in November, when he recorded a Racing Post Rating 8lb better than Jeriko Du Reponet has in two starts.

He'd have something to find on bumper form with A Dream To Share given he was fifth to that horse in both the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham and the Punchestown version, but A Dream To Share has yet to run and It's For Me looked really good at Punchestown.

There he was always going best and pulled out more when challenged by Caldwell Potter, a brother to the ill-fated Mighty Potter, to win by a length and a half.

The runner-up has since won twice, including an impressive success in Grade 1 company over Christmas, so there's serious substance to the form and It's For Me is exciting.

It will be interesting to see where he goes next, but given he races keenly (though not as much in the first-time hood over hurdles) he looks nailed on to stay at 2m.

Gala Marceau

Mares' Hurdle

Odds: 5-1

The one-two in last season's Triumph Hurdle, Lossiemouth and Gala Marceau, head the betting for this, which makes a fair amount of sense.

However, I'd have serious concerns about the speedy Lossiemouth getting 2m4f and none at all about Gala Marceau.

She took the step up to that sort of trip in her stride when running away with the Grade 1 Prix Alain du Breuil at Auteuil in May, and she featured among the five-day entries for the Relkeel at Cheltenham, so we know she's fit and well.

I think she has a better long-term future than the Triumph winner.

Stumptown

Ultima Handicap Chase

Odds: 12-1

I was a bit negative about Stumptown going into the Coral Gold Cup and felt justified after he jumped terribly and was pulled up.

However, he finally convinced me of what a few colleagues at the Racing Post have been saying about him when winning at Cheltenham on Monday in first-time blinkers.

There he largely jumped very well and pulled away from Inch House to win by five lengths, and it was enough to impress me as I think Inch House remains a very well-handicapped horse.

We know Stumptown handles Cheltenham well as he was only just touched off in the Kim Muir last season, and while he is still among the favourites for that race, his win is going to put him well above the ceiling mark of 145 now so he won't be qualified.

If he goes anywhere, it will be in the Ultima, and there's next to no chance of him being 12-1 on the day.


Minella Indo

Cross Country Chase

Odds: 5-1

I don't normally get too involved in the Cross Country race, but I can't see why Minella Indo isn’t the clear favourite.

On back form the 2021 Gold Cup winner is a better horse than Delta Work, Galvin and Conflated, and he took to the cross-country course like a duck to water last month, finishing an excellent fourth under 12st.

He has been first or second in four Grade 1s at the Cheltenham Festival, and clearly comes to life at the course whatever the discipline, and will find a level-weights contest far easier to take out.

He had three and a half lengths to spare over Galvin last month and will be 3lb better off at the weights, and he's already thrashed Delta Work over regulation fences this season.

I was sorely tempted to add Burdett Road for a Lucky 31 in the Triumph Hurdle, as I haven't really seen anything to scare me, but in the end I decided he was short enough ante-post, NRNB or not.


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Gala Marceau was my first ante post bet and I've built up a very nice position at 13/1 but I still think there's value in the 7/1
 
Euronymous said:
Stumptown is a terrible pick. Minella I have already
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Any reason why you are against Stumptown, I quiet fancy it myself, one of teh shrewdest trainers in the business, 2nd season novice, course and festival form and hes two best performances have been at Cheltenham.
 
I think he might need a small field. Yes he was OK in the Kim Muir but that was off 135 and he still didn't win the race and I would expect the Ultima to be a lot stronger
 
I think you'd want to see what mark Stumptown gets in a Cheltenham handicap. 150? If the 70k Ultima was the ultima-te plan he wouldn't have been winning a 26k race by 5l at New Year.
 
archie said:
I think you'd want to see what mark Stumptown gets in a Cheltenham handicap. 150? If the 70k Ultima was the ultima-te plan he wouldn't have been winning a 26k race by 5l at New Year.
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Did the same last year, won an 8k race in Sandown ended up going up 10lbs and was a nk away from winning the Kim Muir.
 
Very true but also very different. He had to win last year at Sandown or else they’d have been relying on the BHA to add enough Irish tax to bring his 125 up enough to get into the race.

Regardless, I wouldn’t discount him quite like Euro has but I like Are U Wise To That, just as long as his shockingly bad trainer doesn’t blow his mark.
 
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I hate NRNB with a vengance. It's just an excuse to cut the odds of horses.

Example...State Man NRNB 3/1 he was still an inknown last year and went off at 7/2 I expect now we know the time of day he'll be offered around 9/2 or better on the day
 
Tanlic said:
I hate NRNB with a vengance. It's just an excuse to cut the odds of horses.

Example...State Man NRNB 3/1 he was still an inknown last year and went off at 7/2 I expect now we know the time of day he'll be offered around 9/2 or better on the day
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Or if Con Hill doesn't turn up, he goes off 1/2!!
 
Tanlic said:
I hate NRNB with a vengance. It's just an excuse to cut the odds of horses.

Example...State Man NRNB 3/1 he was still an inknown last year and went off at 7/2 I expect now we know the time of day he'll be offered around 9/2 or better on the day
Click to expand...

I have no issue with bookies lowering odds on NRNB markets. The normal ante-post market factors in the possibility of the horse not ultimately running so it's a case of caveat emptor. If they go so short with the odds that nobody backs the horse then they're missing out on business so they're effectively shooting themselves in the foot.

It boils down to a matter of punters' evaluation of the odds v the bookies' and that's how it should be.

I can't really see anyone backing State Man at very short odds. As you say, he'll almost certainly be longer on the day.

Of course, the bookies also like to suck in the mug punters as they often do with races like the National, when they hype one or two in the racing media with a view to attracting mug money so they'll no doubt be hoping the same punters are willing to back State Man because they've given them the chance to get their money back if he ends up ducking the challenge with the monster.
 
Tanlic said:
I hate NRNB with a vengance. It's just an excuse to cut the odds of horses.

Example...State Man NRNB 3/1 he was still an inknown last year and went off at 7/2 I expect now we know the time of day he'll be offered around 9/2 or better on the day
Click to expand...

You have that wrong -they won't want him being anything close to a free each way bet on the day.7/2 is the biggest price they will allow him to start.
 
Was true of last year but it depends on how many runners . The norm is 1/5th the odds as almost every year there's more than 8 runners' Last year was an exception and only 7 turned up hence Sate Man went off at 7/2
 
Regardless of the amount of runners State Man will not start at bigger than 7/2 and will probably start at a shorter price.
 
Sorry Luke but you are wrong mate.

100 pounds ew at 7/2 1/5th the odds if 8 or more runners would return 170 pound for a 200 pound outlay for a place

That's a loss of 30 quid if he finished 2nd or 3rd. No punter in their right mind would place that bet on a horse who chances of actually winning are nearer 10/1+++.

with 8 runners they would go 9/2 and with a likely loss of 10 pounds they would attract some money who thought it worth the gamble.

They would need to try and take some bets to cover likely losses and they wouldn't do at 7/2

I hope that makes sense to you.
 
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I see the racing post are saying France has another secret weapon in Theleme 4/1 for the stayers

They say he left Il Est Francais in his wake lasy spring over hurdles but neglect to mention
Il Est Francais never finished 2nd he never ran a message that day and trailed in 5th.

The obvious negative is he has never encountered anthing remotely close to good ground or g/s. Dodgy AP bet
 
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