Cheltenham 2024 NRNB

Didn’t they move it to be Sandownon imperial Cup day when it attracts 6-8 runners and replace it with the mares chase which also attracts 6-8 runners at the fez. A true masterstroke of race planning [emoji848]


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I suspect Jack Kennedy will ride Irish Point in the Stayers Teahupoo is a bit of a one trick pony who I am not sure that Cheltenham 3m will suit.

I hammered Valadon today the plan being to put all the winnings on Irish Point if he won but NOT NRNB as I can now have a bet to nothing.
 
Tanlic said:
I suspect Jack Kennedy will ride Irish Point in the Stayers Teahupoo is a bit of a one trick pony who I am not sure that Cheltenham 3m will suit.

I hammered Valadon today the plan being to put all the winnings on Irish Point if he won but NOT NRNB as I can now have a bet to nothing.
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Always nice to see other judges on your picks. Irish Point has been on my radar for a while.
 
Ive been all over Irish Point for months and have some big prices (have in the ante post comp) so am happy to hear the Frenchie now won’t be coming over. Would have added interest to the race for sure though.
 
I think I'm gonna back Crambo in that now the Frenchie is out. I think Teahuupoo is a two and a half mile/soft ground merchant and whilst I respect Irish Point the stamina is not proven. I also remember backing Paisley Park at a nice price in his first Long Walk and for some reason not following up on him for the Stayers' and I don't want a repeat.
 
The Stayers is a graveyard race.

I’ll have £1 perm fcs and tcs on the three outers (whoever they are) on this sh*tbox event, and move swiftly onto the Plate.
 
Jack Kennedy havea great interview on Thyestes day for the Road To Cheltenham. He seems to be leaning towards Teahupoo for the Stayers Hurdle more than Irish Point. He says T has a great will to win and is stronger than last year. He also thinks they still don’t know for sure, after the crawl the last day, whether Irish Point would get a truly run 3 miles, although he thinks he probably would.
 
Who am I to argue with jack Kennedy he's one of the best jockeys we have seen in a long time.
Not that I understand his logic on this one. Typhoo Tea beat Klassical Dream over 2m3f but over 3miles in April was well and truly beaten by him over 3 miles
and didn't quite get home in the stayers........wasn't a good stayers either with Dashel finishes 2nd beaten inches placed 3rd

I do prefer Irish Point as I simply don't trust Tyhupoo when it comes to high class events

My worry with Irish Point is he is a very similar type to Blazing Kai who travelled like a dream at Navan but when push comes to shove in the stayers the stamina simply wasn't there.

I think he's the type he'll either win easily or be unplaced
 
Yeah Impaire Et Passe scratched from Stayers too, others are:-


Jonbon (Ryanair Chase)
Ahoy Senor (Stayers’ Hurdle)
Royale Pagaille (Gold Cup)
Stay Away Fay (Gold Cup)
 
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No denying Galopin Des Champs is a worthy God Cup fav.

But looking at the chase course record of the others isn't very impressive.

Fastorslow ran 2 lost 2
Shiskin zero from 3
Gerri Colombe 0 from 1
LHomme Presse 1 from 1
Hewick 0 from 1

The Chances of any 3 of them lasting home and getting up the hill are slim at best

Corach Rambler is 3 from 3 and will sill be going when others have cried enough.

Corach Rambler 20/1 EW with William Hill NRNB looks a great bet and 14/1 without the fav with PP has got to be woth a bob or two
 
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I'm still keen on Gerri.

Negs:
The Brown Advisory form is dogshit, he was poor in the Lexus.

Positive:
He's an absolute boat and the Gold Cup stamina test will suit much much better than the BA did so my position is you can mark him up on that form. He was only getting going when the line appeared. And I don't really care about the Lexus run, he was much too close to the pace and amongst recent winners of the blue ribband APT ran poorly in that race before his win in March and Minella Indo fell in it.
 
Tanlic said:
No denying Galopin Des Champs is a worthy God Cup fav.

But looking at the chase course record of the others isn't very impressive.

Fastorslow ran 2 lost 2
Shiskin zero from 3
Gerri Colombe 0 from 1
LHomme Presse 1 from 1
Hewick 0 from 1

The Chances of any 3 of them lasting home and getting up the hill are slim at best

Corach Rambler is 3 from 3 and will sill be going when others have cried enough.

Corach Rambler 20/1 EW with William Hill NRNB looks a great bet and 14/1 without the fav with PP has got to be woth a bob or two
Click to expand...

Food for thought in there, Tanlic, but I'd be reluctant to dismiss Fastorslow's track record. After all, take CR out of the Ultima and he'd have been a smart-looking winner of that, which he has gone on to improve on.

What I do think might be significant is how much improvement CR made last season from November through to March, or from March-March. Using RPRs for illustration (my own ratings tend to be around 5lbs higher), March 22 152 (Ultima, up 5lbs from his December peak), March 23 162 (up 11lbs from his November mark and 10lbs from the March one). He's already run to 159 in November this season and the other day Lucinda Russell was quoted along the lines of saying that he was just coming to himself. If he can find 10lbs on that November rating or his rating from last March he has to be in the mix for the places and, as you point out, he really does seem to thrive on the course.

I've taken the 20/1 ew NRNB. I just worry, though, that a hard race might compromise a repeat win at Aintree, for which I quite fancy his barra. I'll have a wee think about the bet w/o the fav.
 
I’ve been keen on Corach Rambler all season and while I’m hardly confident I’m still hopeful he can at least run into a place.

I wouldn’t read too much into the course form though as those runs were on the old course.
 
I think the Arkle is ripe for the plucking. I cannot have any of the market principles:
Marine - not after the DRF
Il Etait - Horrible in the Supreme last year after a similar big effort at the DRF
Found a Fifty - 6/1? That's heinous
Hunters Yarn - Only one win in a beginners and similar to IET was bad last year at the Festival

I've come down on JPR One who loves the track and seems well able to jump at pace over course and distance and Quilixios who won well enough the last day, is a Festival winner and like JPR One is just basically too big because he isn't a Mullins. Both double figures, both a bit of value.
 
With you on JPR. No chance he's going to the Grand Annual now, which was my original punting plan with him.

I need to have a look at your other one.
 
Tanlic said:
No denying Galopin Des Champs is a worthy God Cup fav.

But looking at the chase course record of the others isn't very impressive.

Fastorslow ran 2 lost 2
Shiskin zero from 3
Gerri Colombe 0 from 1
LHomme Presse 1 from 1
Hewick 0 from 1

The Chances of any 3 of them lasting home and getting up the hill are slim at best

Corach Rambler is 3 from 3 and will sill be going when others have cried enough.

Corach Rambler 20/1 EW with William Hill NRNB looks a great bet and 14/1 without the fav with PP has got to be woth a bob or two
Click to expand...
I've somewhat used similar criteria to arrive upon the decision that The Real Whacker is very much overpriced and have taken the 66/1.

I don't, however, subscribe to dismissing Fastorslow on the basis of not having a win at Cheltenham. He has rock solid festival form and is most definitely on the upgrade. Real danger to the fav.
 
Was very tempted to have 75% of my Cheltenham bank on Ballyburn at 6/4NRNB.It's not the way I play the game but I reckon he is an absolute certainty and I reckon there will be plenty of races at the festival that I will be happy to sit out.
 
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