Cheltenham '21 Reviews

Desert Orchid

Desert Orchid

Senior Jockey
Joined
Aug 2, 2005
Messages
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I've started writing my reviews of the festival for my own files and thought I'd share the first with you.

Feel free to offer alternative reading of the form but if there's little meaningful debate I'll keep the other days' stuff on file.

First up Tuesday

One of the major progressions this year is the more readily available sectional analyses. Simon Rowlands had his breakdown of the first two days on the ATR site by the Thursday and the rest by the Saturday or Sunday but James Willoughby also had his piece at the RTV site not long after the conclusion of the meeting. Additionally, the RTV results section (which, I think, you can access without logging in) includes sectionals for every runner in every race.

Honeysuckle’s closing section was faster than par in winning the Champion Hurdle, as was Sharjah’s, with Epatante pretty much bang on but she was never really travelling as smoothly as you’d expect so I reckon Sharjah has probably run closest to his best and have rated the race through him. We know Honeysuckle was likely to be better than we’d seen anyway but this helps quantify it.

Using this race, the fastest of the day, and Sharjah running to his max, I used this race to calculate a going allowance for the hurdles races to help evaluate the other form.


1.25 SUPREME NOVICES' HURDLE

[TABLE="width: 371"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Horse[/TD]
[TD]Weight[/TD]
[TD]MON[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 1 [/TD]
[TD] Appreciate It[/TD]
[TD]11-7 [/TD]
[TD]161[/TD]
[TD]+p[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 2 [/TD]
[TD] Ballyadam[/TD]
[TD]11-7 [/TD]
[TD]135[/TD]
[TD]++[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 3 [/TD]
[TD] For Pleasure[/TD]
[TD]11-7 [/TD]
[TD]132[/TD]
[TD]++[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

The sectionals tell us that they went fast in this race and Appreciate It slowed down the least, not unlike Kilcruit in his bumper at the DRF, but Appreciate It was still only slightly slower than [JW’s] par. The rest were slowing dramatically because they burst themselves chasing his pace. My rating for the winner is time-based but the sectionals tell is Appreciate It is better still. 161 is still a very high rating, though, for a Supreme winner and suggests a 170+ mark as a novice chaser is entirely probably given normal progression.

1.55 ARKLE CHALLENGE TROPHY NOVICES' CHASE (GRADE 1)

[TABLE="width: 472"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Horse[/TD]
[TD]Weight[/TD]
[TD]OR[/TD]
[TD]MON[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD] Shishkin[/TD]
[TD]11-4 [/TD]
[TD]164 [/TD]
[TD]174[/TD]
[TD]++[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD] Eldorado Allen[/TD]
[TD]11-4 [/TD]
[TD]149 [/TD]
[TD]160[/TD]
[TD]+[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD] Captain Guinness[/TD]
[TD]11-4 [/TD]
[TD]153 [/TD]
[TD]159[/TD]
[TD]++[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD] Allmankind[/TD]
[TD]11-4 [/TD]
[TD]160 [/TD]
[TD]158[/TD]
[TD]++[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

What promised to be one of the races of the week didn’t disappoint. All my figures pointed to Shishkin’s being Altioresque and he delivered big time. It was a shame Energumene didn’t make it as we could have been in for quite a showdown. As the race was unfolding it was always on my mind that I’d be using Eldorado Allen as the main indicator of the form because he was ridden cold, obviously to pick up any scraps. However, it’s a measure of how fast the pace was that his finishing sectional was also slower than par. For all that Allmankind and Captain Guinness appeared to overdo the pace and effectively cut each other’s throat, Shishkin ran the first three-quarters of the race only 0.03s slower than the former and then was considerably faster than everything else over the next three furlongs but he wasn’t being asked any more questions by that last furlong and Eldorado Allen only made up one length on him to the line. I reckon Shishkin had at least another three lengths in hand. It remains of great interest to see if Energumene can match it. It also means we can hope to see a mid-180s type of performance in open company next season. This is a very seriously talented crop of novices.

The other two chases were very slowly run by comparison and meaningless on the clock.

2.30 ULTIMA HANDICAP CHASE (GRADE 3)

I am open to the idea of re-thinking my approach to Irish handicap chases. For the last few seasons I have taken the same approach to them as with the hurdles, ie assuming the ratings are on average about 6lbs lower than they should be. It’s an approach which has served me well but I’ve been aware of less of a differential with the better chasers. The RTV interview with the UK handicappers was informative in that they explained that the median rating for Irish hurdlers is about five or six pounds lower than that of the UK’s – which justified my approach, arrived at via experience – but the chase median ratings are pretty much level hence there weren’t as many adjustments to chasers.

The Irish had an awful record in the Ultima beforehand and they pretty much bombed again, Discordantly doing best in sixth place, beaten twelve lengths. However, they won the Plate and Kim Muir and were short-headed in the Grand Annual so they’re still doing well.

Are they just in a position to be more selective about what they send over?

Anyway, the Ultima form is good; it always is. Vintage Clouds was top-rated on my figures on his old form but at eleven years of age it is hard to justify rating him as having improved on that and rating the race through his running to his best old form works out very much along the lines of expectations, allowing for many of the beaten horses to have underperformed. Happygolucky was very much on my mind for the race until I saw his price but he has run his race. Aye Right has found further improvement. Cepage ran a strange race dropping back after being prominent and seemingly staying on well again late. I’m not convinced he stays and suspected he was being trained for the Topham but he wasn’t entered.


3.05 CHAMPION HURDLE

[TABLE="width: 470"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Horse[/TD]
[TD]Weight[/TD]
[TD]OR[/TD]
[TD]MON[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD] Honeysuckle[/TD]
[TD]11-3 [/TD]
[TD]161 [/TD]
[TD]166[/TD]
[TD]+[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD] Sharjah[/TD]
[TD]11-10 [/TD]
[TD]164 [/TD]
[TD]166[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD] Epatante[/TD]
[TD]11-3 [/TD]
[TD]161 [/TD]
[TD]156[/TD]
[TD]+[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD] Aspire Tower[/TD]
[TD]11-10 [/TD]
[TD]160 [/TD]
[TD]161[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

For all Honeysuckle was a worthy winner and would probably have won even without the allowance there is still something underwhelming about the hurdlers. Maybe in general they’re going chasing too soon but there seems little strength in depth. Sharjah’s talent is limited, Epatante now has plenty to prove, Silver Streak is inconsistent, Goshen is an enigma, and Buveur D’Air was redirected to Aintree, probably to run over further. At least Aspire Tower and Not So Sleepy improved on previous form but they aren’t exactly Grade 1 winners waiting to happen unless it’s a substandard race. I suppose we need to hope one or two of this season’s novice hurdlers will a) stay at two miles, b) stay over hurdles and c) improve enough to compete.

3.40 MARES' HURDLE

[TABLE="width: 495"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]No.[/TD]
[TD]Horse[/TD]
[TD]Weight[/TD]
[TD]OR[/TD]
[TD]MON[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 1 [/TD]
[TD] Black Tears[/TD]
[TD]11-5 [/TD]
[TD]148 [/TD]
[TD]155[/TD]
[TD]+p[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 2 [/TD]
[TD] Concertista[/TD]
[TD]11-5 [/TD]
[TD]153 [/TD]
[TD]155[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD] Roksana[/TD]
[TD]11-5 [/TD]
[TD]153 [/TD]
[TD]153[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD] Indefatigable[/TD]
[TD]11-5 [/TD]
[TD]149 [/TD]
[TD]151[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

This was a fair enough race although slowly run with a fast finish. In that respect, Black Tears has done well to win from a rearward early position and should be upgraded. Her final furlong was faster than Honeysuckle’s! The others in the frame have run close to expectations. The disappointing aspect for me is that my 50/1 bet My Sister Sarah was rated to be right in the mix but she was also ridden from the rear and wide. She put up much the fastest split four furlongs out, probably trying to quicken against a quickening pace, and paid for it thereafter. She is better than her final placing.


4.15 BOODLES JUVENILE HANDICAP HURDLE (FRED WINTER)

The sectionals say this was an efficiently run race so I’ve rated it via a time comparison with the Supreme, which works out very much along the kind of form lines I was looking at and some way better than the new ORs so the chances are this race is going to throw up plenty of handicap winners on both sides of the water as the season goes on and into next season. I wouldn’t be surprised if several of them turned up in the big handicaps at next year’s festival.


4.50 NATIONAL HUNT NOVICES' CHASE

[TABLE="width: 507"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD].[/TD]
[TD]Horse[/TD]
[TD]Weight[/TD]
[TD]OR[/TD]
[TD]MON[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD] Galvin[/TD]
[TD]11-6 [/TD]
[TD]152 [/TD]
[TD]158[/TD]
[TD]+[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD] Next Destination[/TD]
[TD]11-6 [/TD]
[TD]153 [/TD]
[TD]156[/TD]
[TD]+[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD] Escaria Ten[/TD]
[TD]11-6 [/TD]
[TD]147 [/TD]
[TD]155[/TD]
[TD]+p[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

Watching this race live I thought Remastered was setting a decent pace but the sectionals say it was a very fast finish. In fact, each of the front three ran the final furlong quicker than the the winner of the Ultima run over half a mile less. I’d fancied Galvin for this since last year thinking all along he was a certainty and only wobbling when the participation of Monkfish and Royale Pagaille was mooted latterly. For me, the result was never really in doubt, though, with Galvin given a stalking ride in midfield and not asked a serious question to scoot clear. My rating for him beforehand was already some way higher than the above figure so I reckon he probably had much more in hand than it looked.
 
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granger said:
keep going Mo

I understand why you have Ballyadam so low but what would a normal 3rd/4th place supreme horse average out at over the last decade?
Click to expand...

In a 'normal' year I would be looking for a mark of around 155 for a good Supreme winner so placings would depend on the strength in depth of the others, so probably around 150 for something beaten four or five lengths.

Shishkin was already pushing 160 going into last year's race (my ratings) which is why I was so keen on it then but Altior had been around 164 going into his Supreme.

Obviously the race ratings for Ballyadam and the beaten horses don't do them justice. They are better than that but they ran themselves to a standstill trying to keep up with Appreciate It.

I don't know if I would be too keen to take a short price about Appreciate It if he came out again this season. The race must have taken a lot out of him. If not, he has to be a very serious tool.
 
Wednesday:


Ballymore – Bob Olinger emerges an above average winner of the race (160+p) and should be up to winning here again next season whichever route he goes down, be it staying over hurdles or going for a big novice chase. Either way, he should have a 170 in his locker by then, which will probably be good enough. Bravemansgame has fallen 6lbs short of my previous mark for him so I have to wonder if he was over-rated in the first place. He’s still a very good prospect, though, as is the runner-up Gaillard Du Mesnil (154) who can count himself unlucky to have come up against such a good opponent.

Brown Advisory (RSA) – Monkfish (166++) won well enough but didn’t do a great deal on the clock. Champ was around the 170 mark in winning this last season, form both Minella Indo and A Plus Tard went on to frank in the Gold Cup. There has to be every chance Monkfish will be able to make a proper race of it next year. Runner-up Fiddlerontheroof’s new official mark (152) could see him being very competitive in the Ladbroke come late November unless he goes and blows it at Aintree.

Coral Cup – the big surprise in this race was the slow pace. The winner, Heaven Help Us (in more sense than one), was responsible for the false start – at least his claimer was – but she soon got to set her own easy fractions and had plenty left to speed clear from two out. This was either a brilliant tactical ride or a very lucky one but the ‘senior’ jockeys should be having a serious word with themselves. Most of them would have ridden the previous day and should have known they weren’t going fast enough. Of the first thirteen home only two tried to come from the back and they should be marked up: Sayo (fourth) and Dans Le Vent (8[SUP]th[/SUP]). I’m not sure the form can be taken literally as far as the winner is concerned. We probably had three races in play here: the winner on her own, the chasing pack and the rearward runners who never had a chance the way the race panned out.

Champion Chase – Put The Kettle On (163) is an admirably tough and consistent horse but she has now won four times here from four attempts with the advantage of the mares’ allowance. She didn’t even put up a particularly fast time. Sky Pirate won the Grand Annual just over an hour later in a time about a second and a half faster and carrying 3lbs more. The form is decent but nothing exceptional, putting runner-up Nube Negra on 169+ but it also means Chacun Pour Soi hasn’t run his race in third, posting a figure at least 6lbs shy of expectations suggesting he really should have won by at least four lengths to justify his 8/13 SP. On my figures – about which I admit I have doubts – Politologue might well have retained his title had he not had his mishap before the race.

Grand Annual – I must admit, I thought the handicapper had Sky Pirate in his grip, a view reinforced by Allmankind’s good, but not good enough, performance in the Arkle. It was a strongly run race but very slightly slower than ‘perfect’ and everything had a fair chance. The ones to take out of the race are the first three but especially the third, Ibleo, who tried to come from last and can be marked up. He has only been raised one pound (he was one pound well in as it was) for this and should remain very competitive in the top two-mile handicaps. Runner-up Entoucas is a year younger than the pair he split and will almost certainly improve again next season but we might not see him run to form until this meeting.
 
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On her previous run Heaven Help Us won the Paddy Mullins Mares Hcp Hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival. Two other festival winners ran in the race. Telmesomethinggirl (3rd) won the Mares Novice Hurdle and Mrs Milner (Fell) the Pertemps.

Last year's winner of the Paddy Mullins race was Black Tears (2nd in last year's Coral Cup and winner of this year's Mares Hurdle) and the horse in third was Concertista (winner of last year's Mares Hurdle and runner up in it this year).

It looks like proper form to me that should not be too lightly dismissed.
 
There has been a tendency, a campaign almost, to suggest that running at the DRF is a disadvantage as far as Cheltenham is concerned. Something like 11 festival winners ran at the DRF this time around so a rethink might be advisable.
 
Grey said:
On her previous run Heaven Help Us won the Paddy Mullins Mares Hcp Hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival. Two other festival winners ran in the race. Telmesomethinggirl (3rd) won the Mares Novice Hurdle and Mrs Milner (Fell) the Pertemps.

Last year's winner of the Paddy Mullins race was Black Tears (2nd in last year's Coral Cup and winner of this year's Mares Hurdle) and the horse in third was Concertista (winner of last year's Mares Hurdle and runner up in it this year).

It looks like proper form to me that should not be too lightly dismissed.
Click to expand...

I wouldn't say I was dismissing the form. I actually went very high with it but the Coral Cup looked hugely competitive beforehand. I'll go back and check it through again and upgrade it accordingly even if, a bit like Heaven Help Us, that horse has bolted.
 
archie said:
There has been a tendency, a campaign almost, to suggest that running at the DRF is a disadvantage as far as Cheltenham is concerned. Something like 11 festival winners ran at the DRF this time around so a rethink might be advisable.
Click to expand...

Think it stems from 2 years ago where winners on good ground like Apples Jade, Min, La Bague Au Roi, Bellshill, Le Richebourg all left their year/careers behind them there.
 
archie said:
There has been a tendency, a campaign almost, to suggest that running at the DRF is a disadvantage as far as Cheltenham is concerned. Something like 11 festival winners ran at the DRF this time around so a rethink might be advisable.
Click to expand...

No one I'd respect was saying it.
 
From what I recall there was a concern that it may, at the time of the first DRF.

You can just imagine the likes of Hendo chuckling to himself over his brandy and rubbing his hands in readiness of the over-the-top invaders, while he’d been protecting the best of the home team.
 
wilsonl said:
From what I recall there was a concern that it may, at the time of the first DRF.

You can just imagine the likes of Hendo chuckling to himself over his brandy and rubbing his hands in readiness of the over-the-top invaders, while he’d been protecting the best of the home team.
Click to expand...

And it was fair because the ground was concrete. What will be interesting going forward is how peaking for the DRF and Cheltenham effects the Christmas period.
 
Thursday

Three races were strongly run on sectionals and they’re probably the three that matter the most, the Marsh, the Ryanair and the Stayers’ Hurdle. The handicaps were fast late off moderate sections.

Marsh Nov Chase – I’m largely agreeing with RPRs in going fairly high with this race, which I wasn’t really anticipating with Envoi Allen’s departure. My figures suggest he would need to have been everything he was cracked up to be to have won but he was a 10lbs better hurdler than Chantry House so it’s entirely possible. I had backed runner-up Fusil Raffles ante-post early on for the Arkle based on an item by Simon Rowlands which suggested at that point that he had posted a figure well up to winning an average Arkle. My own figure had been high too but SR’s sectional analysis lent it substance. The form all makes good sense and I’m in no doubt it was a very high class renewal. I would also suggest Chatham Street deserves a decent mark-up as he lost ground and momentum with a mistake three out and again when hampered at the next but he was rallying again after the last. I reckon he would have finished second at worst. The Irish handicapper has left him alone on 151 so I presume if he returns to the UK he’ll be off the same 156 as here. Off that mark I reckon any big handicap he targets would his to lose.

Pertemps – Mrs Milner did a ‘Heaven Help Us’ and ran away with the race off a prominent ride in a race in which the pace was modest. Of the first fifteen home, eleven raced no further back than midfield so the jockeys seemed to know what was happening and presumably felt their horses could quicken off it. The four hold-up horses deserve mark-ups: Come On Teddy (3[SUP]rd[/SUP]), Ask Dillon (6[SUP]th[/SUP]), Spiritofthegames (8[SUP]th[/SUP]) and Everglow (9[SUP]th[/SUP]). But the winner recorded the fasting closing sectional of all and also deserves a mark-up. Her final furlong was two seconds and more faster than that of any of the finishers in the Stayers’ Hurdle. She has gone up 10lbs for this but could easily improve naturally just as much.

Ryanair – This was strongly run with a finish that was on the slow side but the final furlong was still faster than Chantry House’s. The reason for that was the very fast penultimate furlong the latter recorded, about three lengths faster. Again, I’m going very high with my figures but Allaho had been a 170+ novice last season [on my ratings] so it was no surprise that he wasn’t far off 180 here and a sectional mark-up would probably get him over that level. The rest of the form makes perfect sense despite the beaten horses being strung out like heavy ground stayers.

Stayers’ Hurdle – Danny Mullins got the sections almost perfect on Flooring Porter and he never looked like being caught. The youngest runner in the field, he could easily improve a fair bit over the next year and could have the title in safe keeping for years to come if staying over hurdles. The chances are the Albert Bartlett principals will go over fences. It will be interesting to see what connections of the beaten horses do. They’ll never beat the winner when it matters so they might have to go chasing despite being older than ideal. They could maybe pick up lesser races or go back to handicapping but would need to get their marks down by about 7lbs to be competitive in the bigger ones.

Plate 2½ Hcap Chse – The Shunter fairly hacked up. His recent hurdles form was so much improved he stood out like sore thumb so long as his Kelso exertions hadn’t got to him but he was always running away with this. The time was modest and the late sections fast but this is seriously good handicap form. Runner-up Farclas has only gone up 3lbs and can target virtually any handicap connections choose.

Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle – This race was very strongly run, resulting in a slow finish and the winner, Telmesomethinggirl, in rear early, got the best tactical ride. The overall time wasn’t too far off the form level and mark-ups will take care of the difference so the form should be reliable. The runner-up (and stablemate) has done very well to stay on for second after setting that over-fast pace.

Kim Muir – Again, a slowly-run handicap but the winner came from a detached last in the first mile. It was a weird race but with a ratings ceiling of 142 maybe they are just modest Class 3 handicappers who couldn’t really run much faster but the first three were a long way clear and should still have a race in them.
 
Friday

Triumph – Quilixios ran out a good winner of a good renewal but it was a very unsatisfactory race given the unexpectedly poor performance of Zanahiyr. I was more confident of his winning than ever when Saint Sam ran so well in the Fred Winter but he didn’t run his race for whatever reason. I have no doubt he is a 10lbs superior horse to Quilixios and, unless his Fairyhouse win has bottomed him, he will prove it in time. I’m still happy enough with my 33/1 ante-post voucher for next year’s Champion Hurdle but this was a very sore result. Adagio is unfortunate to be one of a good crop as he would probably be good enough to win an average Triumph. Haut en Couleurs ran with immense promise in third on his debut for Mullins.

County – The Zanahiyr disappointment was hugely soothed byt the runaway win of Belfast Banter about which I’d taken 66/1 at the 48-hour stage and much more heavily at 50/1 the evening before. This was probably my biggest return from a single horse bet ever if I discount the total I had on Rooster Booster over many bets and several different prices and there was no fluke about it. He didn’t even get the most tactically astute ride, coming from the rear of midfield off a modest pace but the jocey timed his final surge to perfection whereas fair criticism can be levelled at Robert Dunne on Milkwood in third and Skelton on Third Time Lucki in sixth for going too soon. Both can be marked up. The form is incredibly strong and Milwood’s 3lb rise shouldn’t stop him from winning a valuable handicap so long as he can avoid lobbed-in Irish raiders.

Albert Bartlett – I was very taken by Vanillier who won impressively in a decent enough time. The placed horses all hit decent figures for the race and sectionals show they ran quite efficiently yet Vanillier was running away from them up the hill. On my figures he comes out superior to Monkfish in the same race last year; huge praise indeed. It will be interesting to see where they go with him next season. I assume they will target the RSA which he will win with normal progress if he takes to fences but Flooring Porter set a very high class standard in the Stayers’ Hurdle and is likely to be better still next season. I’m not sure Vanillier can improve enough to beat him but he would almost certainly have the NH Chase at his mercy too.

Gold Cup – At last we got a proper race, run on fair ground at a strong pace. I think the race proved that Frodon doesn’t truly stay this trip in a true-run race against this level of opponent. I didn’t think he was overdoing the pace watching the race live but he fiddled a few fences and was toast at the final turn. Native River, so good on the eye at Sandown, couldn’t go the pace at any stage. Royale Pagaille hardly met a fence right on the first lap and was always struggling. Neither showed their true ability here. With Kemboy struggling from quite early and Champ and Santini blundering their way out of contention there was an element of falling apart in the race but the first three ran their races and their form is very sound, backed up by an overall fast time, bang up to expectation relative to the well-run Foxhunters’ Chase which was, as I would have hoped, 31lbs slower. I reckon Al Boum Photo has run right up to his very best but has been put in his place by two outstanding younger second-season novices who had posted excellent figures at last year’s festival and made the right amount of progress in the interim. This is very serious form.

Mares Chase – I’m coming up with very good figures for this race too but it’s a division that doesn’t interest me.

Martin Pipe – This was another very strong race and I can only wonder what might have been if Lorcan Williams had kept Langer Dan closer to the pace. I can’t help thinking he must have been given very confident messages from the trainer and rode to instructions in the belief that he couldn’t lose. To me, that’s how he was ridden. However, Galopin Des Champs was up with the efficient pace all the way and was well placed to quicken while Langer Dan was picking his way through the pack. They pulled well clear of horses with realistic form chances at this level. Langer Dan was 5lbs well in despite a 5lbs penalty and the handicapper has left him on his new mark. I reckon he can win another good race off that mark.
 
I shouln’t be too hard on Zanahiyr, Desert, I think Jack Kennedy lost it for him before they’d even started racing when he lined up on the inside letting Rachel position Quilixios in front and outside of him. Clever Rachel!

When Talking About You set off in front Rachel ran Quilixios outside and behind him. She had Zanahiyr in the prison van from the get go. Once they had settled down after the first she was able to continue racing on the outside of the leader, mostly at his rear end (had to keep curbing Quilixios) and had Zanahiyr not only locked up in jail, but in the maximum security wing at that.

So it continued throughout the race until the third last when the leader lurched violently left. A gap by George, but Rachel slammed the door shut before you could blink. Zanahiyr had no escape and Rachel could time her finish to that which suited Quilixios best.

With such a small field Jack couldn’t have thought he wouldn’t be able to get a run whenever he wanted it, but he didn’t count on Rachel’s classy performance - it was masterful (or I suppose we should say mistressful)
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Albert Bartlett – I was very taken by Vanillier who won impressively in a decent enough time. The placed horses all hit decent figures for the race and sectionals show they ran quite efficiently yet Vanillier was running away from them up the hill. On my figures he comes out superior to Monkfish in the same race last year; huge praise indeed. It will be interesting to see where they go with him next season. I assume they will target the RSA which he will win with normal progress if he takes to fences but Flooring Porter set a very high class standard in the Stayers’ Hurdle and is likely to be better still next season. I’m not sure Vanillier can improve enough to beat him but he would almost certainly have the NH Chase at his mercy too.
Click to expand...

Flooring Porter stays hurdling surely? He hasn't the scope of Vanillier or Bravemansgame when it comes to thinking about the Brown Advisory of 2022.
 
Langer Dan's performance was overrated because the commentator was clearly on. Sean O'Keefe absolutely tanked through the race and admitted he held off going for him as late as possible. If anything Langer Dan was flattered to finish so close. If they meet again the form won't be reversed.
 
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barjon said:
I shouln’t be too hard on Zanahiyr, Desert, I think Jack Kennedy lost it for him before they’d even started racing when he lined up on the inside letting Rachel position Quilixios in front and outside of him. Clever Rachel!

When Talking About You set off in front Rachel ran Quilixios outside and behind him. She had Zanahiyr in the prison van from the get go. Once they had settled down after the first she was able to continue racing on the outside of the leader, mostly at his rear end (had to keep curbing Quilixios) and had Zanahiyr not only locked up in jail, but in the maximum security wing at that.

So it continued throughout the race until the third last when the leader lurched violently left. A gap by George, but Rachel slammed the door shut before you could blink. Zanahiyr had no escape and Rachel could time her finish to that which suited Quilixios best.

With such a small field Jack couldn’t have thought he wouldn’t be able to get a run whenever he wanted it, but he didn’t count on Rachel’s classy performance - it was masterful (or I suppose we should say mistressful)
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When Kennedy took a big pull after the second hurdle the writing was on the wall.
 
Royale Pagaille will beat up small runner UK chases all winter but is not worthy of his rating. He's had plenty of chasing and it's not like he has scope to improve like the proper novices.
 
If Vanillier ends up in a NHC it will be because a leg has fallen off him. He destroyed an Albert Bartlett field and should be heading the RSA betting.
 
What was most interesting about the County was that 129 got a run this year. I wonder if this is just an anomaly of the Covid madness. Willie Mullins said his biggest dissapointment on Friday was Ganapathi who took a bump from Milkwood and let the mare worry him out of his gap. With that experience he'll take beating wherever he shows up next.
 
Slim said:
Langer Dan's performance was overrated because the commentator was clearly on. Sean O'Keefe absolutely tanked through the race and admitted he held off going for him as late as possible. If anything Langer Dan was flattered to finish so close. If they meet again the form won't be reversed.
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I agree but it might depend on the weights. I also got the impression the commentator was on LD but don't agree that the performance was over-rated. It was a deeply competitive race and he was seriously over-confidently ridden. He could easily have finished at least five lengths further ahead of the third. But wouldn't have beaten the winner, I admit. (Still, it wasn't a bad run for a 50/1 shot.)
 
Slim said:
If Vanillier ends up in a NHC it will be because a leg has fallen off him. He destroyed an Albert Bartlett field and should be heading the RSA betting.
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I agree, but Monkfish and the NHC were still being mentioned in the same breath until the final dec stage and until then some people were still suggesting it might happen.

Just covering the bases.
 
Slim said:
What was most interesting about the County was that 129 got a run this year. I wonder if this is just an anomaly of the Covid madness. Willie Mullins said his biggest dissapointment on Friday was Ganapathi who took a bump from Milkwood and let the mare worry him out of his gap. With that experience he'll take beating wherever he shows up next.
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I think the Covid situation played a big part but it also highlighted something I normally wouldn't dwell on. With all the talk about "social runners" I had always assumed this really only applied to the non-handicaps but, from memory, the cut in the handicaps was much lower this year across the board:

Ultima 132
F Winter 123 (not sure of the norm but that seems low)
Coral Cup 130
Grand Annual 136
Pertemps 126
Plate 130
Kim Muir 122
County 129
M Pipe 132

I would never have imagined a race like the Martin Pipe having a higher cut off than either the Coral Cup or County.

So clearly there must be "social runners" in these races ever year too. In the non-handicaps the're easy to identify. In the handicaps you've no chance.
 
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