Cheltenham Ante Post

del boy

del boy

Senior Jockey
Joined
Nov 16, 2005
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This is the time of the year i normally start looking at the Cheltenham markets. I had a while to spare earlier and was looking through Paddypowers markets.

So far i have got the following five selections. Im thinking of doing an Ew lucky 31. Il probably do it tomorrow, but thought it would be no harm to put it up on here, people might be able to point out if a horse has an alternative target of it its not running.

Anyone got any Ante Post bets done already, anyone convinced something is good value??

Supreme Novices Hurdle
Zaarito 14/1

Gold Cup
Star De Mohaison 20/1

Sun Alliance Chase
Lodge Lane 14/1

Arkle Chase
Jayo 14/1

Champion Hurdle
Punjabi 12/1
 
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I like your top two choices, but think Hurricane Fly is going to be very difficult to beat in the Supreme, should he run in it.

Star de Mohaison would have a right chance in the Gold Cup if the ground was on the lively side.

I've only backed Hurricane Fly 5.5, and Palomar 50.
 
del boy said:
This is the time of the year i normally start looking at the Cheltenham markets. I had a while to spare earlier and was looking through Paddypowers markets.

So far i have got the following five selections. Im thinking of doing an Ew lucky 31. Il probably do it tomorrow, but thought it would be no harm to put it up on here, people might be able to point out if a horse has an alternative target of it its not running.

Anyone got any Ante Post bets done already, anyone convinced something is good value??

Supreme Novices Hurdle
Zaarito 14/1

Gold Cup
Star De Mohaison 20/1

Sun Alliance Chase
Lodge Lane 14/1

Arkle Chase
Jayo 14/1

Champion Hurdle
Punjabi 12/1
Click to expand...

Are there not better prices than this available on some of these horses?

I think Star De Mohaison is 25s in places.

If you are doing a lucky 31 it is worthwhile putting the odds into a calculation based on each bookmaker and placing it with the one that pays the best. There could be a huge difference depending on who you place this with.

Not sure re the selections, but I have backed Star De Mohaison a few weeks ago e/w for the Gold Cup.

I have had a small bet on Calgary Bay on betfair ahead off the Dipper.

I am on Hurricane Fly small for both the Supreme and the Champion.

There is not enough races open for ante post betting at the moment for me to do any multiples as I think there is rank bad value in the prices of some of the main races.
 
If he was to win the Irish Champion at the weekend, then Mullins could well have a rethink, I suppose.

I still hope he keeps him in novice company, and at the 2m trip. The horse has plenty time on it's side to be winning Champion Hurdles.
 
del boy said:
This is the time of the year i normally start looking at the Cheltenham markets. I had a while to spare earlier and was looking through Paddypowers markets.

So far i have got the following five selections. Im thinking of doing an Ew lucky 31. Il probably do it tomorrow, but thought it would be no harm to put it up on here, people might be able to point out if a horse has an alternative target of it its not running.

Anyone got any Ante Post bets done already, anyone convinced something is good value??

Supreme Novices Hurdle
Zaarito 14/1

Gold Cup
Star De Mohaison 20/1

Sun Alliance Chase
Lodge Lane 14/1

Arkle Chase
Jayo 14/1

Champion Hurdle
Punjabi 12/1
Click to expand...

Zaaritto looks a very solid e/w selection del boy, and I really like Jayo who is in the Arkle Nov chase at Leopardstown this Sunday(so you may be best to back him for the festival before then).

Good luck with your lucky 31.
 
Galileo said:
It would not surprise me to see him run in the Irish Champion and still run in the Supreme.
Click to expand...

The Irish Champion looks a soft enough race with only a few serious contenders and some duds, so it could well be a race that HF would go for.

As you say, he could then go for the Supreme afterwards as did His Song (unsuccessfully). Did Danoli do the same before reverting to novice company?
 
DistantView said:
The Irish Champion looks a soft enough race with only a few serious contenders and some duds, so it could well be a race that HF would go for.

As you say, he could then go for the Supreme afterwards as did His Song (unsuccessfully). Did Danoli do the same before reverting to novice company?
Click to expand...

His Song certainly did, not sure about Danoli. Whats more Mullins is the type of trainer who takes these Irish Grade 1s really seriously and would not pass it over simply because Cheltenham is around the corner. It would also leave the way open for Cousin Vinny to run in the Deloitte on Hennessy day.
 
Oh well, it's that time of year again - the small, daft each way yankee for the Festival. I've had a bash for a bit of interest, on Inglis Drever @ 16 in the Stayers', Imperial Commander in the Ryanair @ 10, Diamond Harry @ 7/2 in the RSA Hurdle and Crack Away Jack @ 12 in the Champion. I know, at that rate I'll be lucky to have two runners!
 
Did His Song leave his Cheltenham race behind in the AIG that year though? Having run such a huge race behind Istabraq, he was comprehensively beaten by French Ballerina in the Supreme Novices.

Surely that would be a danger for Hurricane Fly, pitched in against the best Irish hurdlers? Admittedly, there's not anything of the calibre of Istabraq in opposition, but there's a fair chance he would have a hard enough race - especially if the ground is going to be as soft as predicted.
 
I wouldn't like to seee Hurricane Run aimed at the Irish Champion if they view the Supreme Novices as their main target.
 
Grasshopper said:
Did His Song leave his Cheltenham race behind in the AIG that year though? Having run such a huge race behind Istabraq, he was comprehensively beaten by French Ballerina in the Supreme Novices.

Surely that would be a danger for Hurricane Fly, pitched in against the best Irish hurdlers? Admittedly, there's not anything of the calibre of Istabraq in opposition, but there's a fair chance he would have a hard enough race - especially if the ground is going to be as soft as predicted.
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I would not pass any heed on what Willie says in the media so his public statements mean nothing.

I would not say that His Song left his race behind that day. He had about 7 weeks between the races and Istabraq qould have been undercooked for the Irish Champion. His Song was just beaten by an exceptionally good mare at Cheltenham on the day. He showed that he suffered no ill effects from these races by reversing form at Punchestown.
 
DistantView said:
I would not pass any heed on what Willie says in the media so his public statements mean nothing.

I would not say that His Song left his race behind that day. He had about 7 weeks between the races and Istabraq qould have been undercooked for the Irish Champion. His Song was just beaten by an exceptionally good mare at Cheltenham on the day. He showed that he suffered no ill effects from these races by reversing form at Punchestown.
Click to expand...

Right in everything you say there. French Ballerina just had too much toe for him at Cheltenham on good ground.
 
Maybe ye are correct about Hurricane, but i was just thinking if he won this weekend then maybe they would consider the Champion. Personally i would be against the idea, i think the horse will get there in time, and that it could be bad in the long run to run him in this years champion.

Some good points made in this thread so far. I really like Zaarito out of all the bets to be honest. Think this horse will win Grade 1 hurdles. Cant really judge it too much on this years form to be fair, but there is just something about him.

Jayo is a horse i really like and have done for some time. I have backed it on nearly every run this season.Was gutted when it got chinned at Navan having looked home and hosed after the last. Still improving i reckon, may well turn into a top irish novice this season.

I have a feeling that were going to see a bit of an upset in the Gold Cup, and this horse prior to injury was very classy. Pleasing run last time out, around Cheltenham, and if there is value in the current market then i think this is it.

I will take Distant Views suggestion on board and look for the value amongst the firms.

Im a bit worried about Lodge Lane.Hasnt been out in a while, and i know the stable has a bit of a problem with sickness. Whats peoples views on how this would affect Cheltenham prep...

I know the horse may miss out on another run, but would it be fair to say that if the horse was free from the sickness, how long before a trainer could have it back to peak fitness at home??

For that reason i may hold off my ante post lucky 31 for a week or so..although il probably back Jayo and Zaarito before the weekend.
 
del boy said:
Maybe ye are correct about Hurricane, but i was just thinking if he won this weekend then maybe they would consider the Champion. Personally i would be against the idea, i think the horse will get there in time, and that it could be bad in the long run to run him in this years champion.

Some good points made in this thread so far. I really like Zaarito out of all the bets to be honest. Think this horse will win Grade 1 hurdles. Cant really judge it too much on this years form to be fair, but there is just something about him.

Jayo is a horse i really like and have done for some time. I have backed it on nearly every run this season.Was gutted when it got chinned at Navan having looked home and hosed after the last. Still improving i reckon, may well turn into a top irish novice this season.

I have a feeling that were going to see a bit of an upset in the Gold Cup, and this horse prior to injury was very classy. Pleasing run last time out, around Cheltenham, and if there is value in the current market then i think this is it.

I will take Distant Views suggestion on board and look for the value amongst the firms.

Im a bit worried about Lodge Lane.Hasnt been out in a while, and i know the stable has a bit of a problem with sickness. Whats peoples views on how this would affect Cheltenham prep...

I know the horse may miss out on another run, but would it be fair to say that if the horse was free from the sickness, how long before a trainer could have it back to peak fitness at home??

For that reason i may hold off my ante post lucky 31 for a week or so..although il probably back Jayo and Zaarito before the weekend.
Click to expand...

Del Boy,

I might get a chance to have a look around for you later during the football.

I have attached a lucky 31 spreadsheet which should help and it tells you what you win depending on how many horses win. It is a long time since I used it but I think the Maths are accurate. Paddy Power have a calculator anyway which can be used.

You could plan the bet around the best prices for the ones you are mots confident about. I will have a look later.
 
DistantView said:
Del Boy,

I might get a chance to have a look around for you later during the football.

I have attached a lucky 31 spreadsheet which should help and it tells you what you win depending on how many horses win. It is a long time since I used it but I think the Maths are accurate. Paddy Power have a calculator anyway which can be used.

You could plan the bet around the best prices for the ones you are mots confident about. I will have a look later.
Click to expand...


For some reason it does not seem to be picking up the attachment?
 
Did Stage Affair not contest and run well in the Irish Champion as a novice? - from what I remember he was hardly at the top of the tree of British/Irish novices that year but still ran a blinder.
 
del boy said:
This is the time of the year i normally start looking at the Cheltenham markets. I had a while to spare earlier and was looking through Paddypowers markets.

So far i have got the following five selections. Im thinking of doing an Ew lucky 31. Il probably do it tomorrow, but thought it would be no harm to put it up on here, people might be able to point out if a horse has an alternative target of it its not running.

Anyone got any Ante Post bets done already, anyone convinced something is good value??

Supreme Novices Hurdle
Zaarito 14/1

Gold Cup
Star De Mohaison 20/1

Sun Alliance Chase
Lodge Lane 14/1

Arkle Chase
Jayo 14/1

Champion Hurdle
Punjabi 12/1
Click to expand...

Interesting Del, i actually made a few quid last week and decided to throw a speculative ew Lucky 15 on myself, small money, just to see how it would look when they set off for the supreme novices;

Ryanair - Noland 4/1
RSA - Cooldine 10/1 (on Gal's soundings)
Arkle - Araldur 14/1
Supreme Novices - Zaarito 14/1

I'm pretty certain all of the above will race in the respective targets. I also remember Mullins saying about keeping Hurricane Fly in Novice company. I couldn't see him in the Champion even if he did manage to win the Irish Champion. Especially with Binocular around.
 
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