Cheltenham: Day 2

SteveM

SteveM

At the Start
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Notes:

DAY 2 March 16, 2011

NH Steeplechase Challenge Cup 4m
Older horses do well in this, ignore 5yos and 6yos. 7yos and an 8yo dominated this last year.

Selections: 1) Chicago Grey

Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle Grade 1 (4yo+) 2m 5f
A good race for those prominent in the betting. Peddler’s Cross won last season’s race at odds of 7/1. 5yos or 6yos win this, with only one 4yo and one 7yo from the past 20 winners.

Shortlist:
Bobs Worth 6
So Young 5
Oscars Well 6
Rock On Ruby 6

Selections: 1) So Young 2) Oscars Well 2) Bobs Worth e.w.


Royal & SunAlliance Chase Grade 1 (5yo+) 3m ½f
7yos and 8yos are best for this (winning 16 of the past 20). Prominently ridden horses. Traditional breeding over French-breds, oppose ex-Flat types.

Shortlist:
Time For Rupert 7
Jessie’s Dream 8
Mikael d’Haguenet 7
Quel Esprit 7
Master Of The Hall 7
Aiteen Thirtythree 7

Selections:
1) Time For Rupert 2) Master Of The Hall e.w. 3) Aiteen Thirtythree 4) Jessie’s Dream



QM Champion Chase Grade 1 (5yo+) 2m
Usually this is dominated by those that are well fancied, as they tend to have exposed form (10 of the past 12 winners started at odds no bigger than 5/1). Concentrate on those rated 160+. The vast Majority of past winners won or were placed at the Festival before. 10 of the last 12 Arkle winners finished in the first two in this race the following year. Those that have run well in the race before tend to continue to run well. Age does not appear to be a particularly important factor in winning this with a spread of ages: 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 and an 11yo winning in the past 20 renewals
Shortlist:
Master Minded 8
Big Zeb 10
Woolcombe Folly 8
Golden Silver 9
Somersby 7
Sizing Europe 9
Captain Cee Bee 10

Selections:
1) Master Minded 2) Woolcombe Folly e.w. 3) Big Zeb 4) Somersby


Champion Bumper 2m ½f
5yos have advantage, although an exceptional 4yo (Cue Card) beat two 5yos in this last year. Irish-trained horses specialise in this (winning 14 of the 18 renewals), particularly Mullins (six winners, five of which were once-raced 5yos).

Shortlist: Knight Pass 5
 
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Master of the Halle ? Surely that was the well known denizen of claimers Barbirolli ?
 
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:blink: getting a bit tired now... will be driving there in a few hours. Neglected to insert a space between Hall and e.w. (i.e. each-way). It's not my fantasy to master Halle (Berry) showing itself.
 
Ardross said:
See you tomorrow - we can discuss how Binocular would have won...
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I’ll see you there, but feel cheated before the start of it... it's only the most important hurdles race there is... in which the reigning champ can't defend because he has traces of a legitimate substance that he’ll be clear of any day soon... there’s always next year I suppose... what a monumental cocking fuck up.
 
I agree entirely - Hamlet without the Prince especially as NH is quoted as saying he was working better than ever .
 
Cribbing shamelessly from Star*Sports handy little Chelt guide:

RSA Chase: Last 10 renewals:

Winner's age: 7 7 7 8 7 5 7 7 7 7 (there's a slight pattern emerging there)

Winner's SP: 9/2 33/1 15/2 25/1 5/1 14/1 6/5fav 4/1fav 9/4fav 10/1

Fate of Favourite: 4 5 5 3 2 PU 1 1 1 5

Winning distance: 1 1/4 2 1 3/4 3 6 10 4 1/2 16 7

Previous run by winners: 2 2 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 2

The last 13 winners ran during the previous two months.

Nine of the last 11 winners were age 7.

Ireland has won 3 of the last 7 renewals.

Okay - find a horse aged 7 from Ireland who has run recently, finishing 1st or 2nd. Simples!

Sportingbet.com Champion Chase

Age: 8 8 9 7 11 8 6 5 6 9

Fate of Favourites: 3 1 1 UR 1 Fell Fell 2 1 4

Previous run by winners: 3 1 1 1 1 1 UR 1 1 1

26 of the last 29 winners have been single figure SPs

12 of the last 18 winners had won previously at the Festival

Looks like an 8 or 9 y.o. at short odds, previous Festival win/s, won last time out.

I thank you!
 
I'm going with BOSTONS ANGEL with TIME FOR RUPERT as the reserve, although I'd prefer to have put him down for a win - I just think he won't squeak it this year, though, much as I love and adore him.
 
Any thoughts on the Neptune? I can't see any angle. Is it between the first two? So Young is very short.
 
My five in the first five races tomorrow are:

1:30 Alfa Beat/Captain Americo
2:05 Minella class
2:40 Bostons Angel (nap)
3:20 Sizing Europe
4:00 For Non Stop/Trenchant
 
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Rumours of 10/3 So Young from Hills tomorrow as it was in shops this evening, that'd be a huge standout price.
 
I think AP and Wayward Prince should suit each other and are good value .

I do like So Young and with Backspin dead , Oscars Well possibly ground dependentand Bob's Worth out he is the one for me .

If Chicago Grey stays surely he wins.

After the warm sun of today and the times if it was too quick for MM last year I fear it will be again tomorrow . He looks in better nick and I should love to see him win but Big Zeb is probably the safer call. If he is OK - Captain Cee Bee could be a threat to anything - he could just as easily be pulled up five out bled again.
 
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1:30 Chicago Grey
2:05 Rock on Ruby
2:40 Time for Rupert NAP
3:20 French Opera EW
4:00 For Non-Stop
4:40 Tenor Niverais
5:15 Raise the Beat
 
The RSA looks very open to me despite TFR. Has to be taken on with a lively one - have already back 1833 so might have a look a closer look st Magnanimity in the morning. So Young is all reputation and no form... Has to be taken on.

It just strikes me with the field sizes for the novice hurdles and chases that all these extra races have just diluted what was already there. Way too many races with these new handicaps and the 3m novice hurdle.

Bobs Worth should be running in Neptune and Tornado Bob in Albert Bartlett (from my ante post point of view anyway):whistle:
 
Ardross said:
I think AP and Wayward Prince should suit each other and are good value .

I do like So Young and with Backspin dead , Oscars Well possibly ground dependentand Bob's Worth out he is the one for me .

If Chicago Grey stays surely he wins.

After the warm sun of today and the times if it was too quick for MM last year I fear it will be again tomorrow . He looks in better nick and I should love to see him win but Big Zeb is probably the safer call. If he is OK - Captain Cee Bee could be a threat to anything - he could just as easily be pulled up five out bled again.
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Good post. I haven't looked at Wayward Prince enough yet but will spend some time doing so this morning.

If Time for Rupert is even half as good as many say, and Chicago Grey stays, which he looked like he would from that Cheltenham run, he must be well clear.

I am worried about MM, though sure he is the best horse in the race. I have always been against Big Zeb and watching a re-run of last year's QMCC confirmed this - is a 3 length beating of Forpadydeplasterer top top form? I don't think so. I think Mad Max has a great chance.
 
granger said:
Connections have to be respected Hamm. Mullins has said he is his best bet of the weekend. I'm doing double with time for rupert. Pays out around 12/1
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I'm more playing Devil's advocate and seeing why he shouldn't be 5/2 .. he has looked good, but his form isn't all that. Saying that, Oscar's Well's form took a fair knock with Zaidpour and Hidden Universe not showing up well yesterday.

First Lieutenent's form also took a knock (for all we are basing it on one horse).

I am not sure is Rock on Ruby a real stayer at this trip, and think he could be vulnerable, as he was in January when looking the winner after the last.

I don't have a handle on Tornado Bob.

I keep coming back to one who could be interesting, Minella Class. Very highly thought of, and he didn't run anyone near his true form last time out. It is a big plus for him that they diverted Bob's Worth, who arguably had the best form of anyone in the race, to the Albert Bartlett. I think he is a horse who will be better on better ground, and Henderson's horses were in flying form yesterday.

For me, it is the favourite (but not at 5/2) and Minella Class each way, and perhaps 2 small reverse forecasts.
 
Really like MDH in the RSA think he is going to like the livelier surface and hopefully Ruby can get him into a nice rhythm and jumping. If he does that he is certainly not a 10/1 shot.
 
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