Cheltenham: Day 4

SteveM

SteveM

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DAY 4 March 18, 2011

Triumph Hurdle 2m 1f 4yos
I really try to avoid having a bet in the Triumph, although last year my each-way suggestion Soldatino won. Look for one that has won its last race.

Shortlist:
Zarkandar 4
Grandouet 4
A Media Luz 4

Selection: 1) Zarkander e.w. 2) Grandouet 3) A Media Luz



AB Novice Hurdle 3m
I had a nightmare in this last year having backed Tell Massini and Enterprise Park (both pulled up) and Quel Esprit (6th). Bertie’sDream won at 33/1! All six winners had run at least three times over hurdles before this.

Shortlist:
Bobs Worth 6
Back In Focus 6
Oscars Well 6


Selection: 1) Back In Focus 2) Bobs Worth




Gold Cup Grade 1 3m 2½f
I was confident Denman would better his stablemate Kauto Star last year, but didn’t reckon on a career-best performance from Imperial Commander. Nine favourites have won since 1980. 7, 8 and 9yos do the best by far in this and Denman, Kauto Star and Imperial Commander are a little long in the tooth this time. However Imperial Commander and Denman are both still performing at close to their best and the younger brigade led by the likes of Long Run, Pandorama and Kempes have a big gap to close. Long Run looks the nearest to closing it. Tidal Bay could be value to run into a place at big odds, he may be finishing best of all up the Cheltenham hill.

Shortlist:
Denman 11
Kauto Star 11
Imperial Commander 10
Long Run 6
Tidal Bay 10
Pandorama 8
Kempes 8
Midnight Chase 9

Selections:
1) Denman2) Long Run 3) Imperial Commander 4) Tidal Bay 5)Kempes/Pandorama

Foxhunter Steeple Chase
The amateur jockey’s Gold Cup. Age no barrier to this with all ages from 7 to 13yos winning in the past 21 renewals. Earthmover won the race in 1998 and again in 2004 (at the respective ages of 7 and 13)

Selections: 1) Baby Run 2) On The Fringe


 
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No strong feelings on the Triumph, although the theme of my betting tomorrow will probably to oppose the Henderson animals at the head of the market - after the good runs on Tuesday they seems to have got progressively worse, too many finishing way down the field or PU for me to have confidence in selecting any of his tomorrow.

Shortlist of Secret Dancer, Notus De La Tour, Snap Tie, Grey Solidier & Gloucester, may play them in multiples with selections in the Grand Annual, except Gloucester who I will be giving the opportunity to improve on his 6th in thie race last year.

Gloucester runs off a mark only 1lb higher but has the useful 5lb claimer Connor o'farrell reducing his weight. After running in this last year he went on to run 2nd to Overturn in the Scottish Champion Hurdle. Fit from a run on the flat, will go on the good ground and a bit of cut wouldn't hurt too much. 66/1 with some bookies paying 5 places, 50/1 with Skybet paying 6 places, I've had some of each. Likely to travel well if last year anything to go by for you traders out there.

I'll oppose Henderson's favourite in the next with Join Together for an interest.

As mentioned elsewhere, it's Shoreacres for me in the last to go out with a bang, but give Oh Crick, I'msingingtheblues & Pigeon Island a shout.
 
Steve T -I have also got stuck into Gloucester at 66s -5 places.Stable form is good,jockey did well today and the horse ran well here 2 years ago.Unfortunately I don't have a skybet account.
Main business for me tomorrow is a lumpy Imperial Commander/Baby Run double.
 
I've had a modest bet on Long Run @ 5/1 with Paddy Power. He's very much in the Kicking King mold for me and is far more progressive than anything in the field.
 
Finding it impossible to forgive Long Run's previous defeats at Cheltenham. I still think that Kauto Star, with Ruby on board, can improve from Kempton. It's a process of elimination Gold Cup, though, rather than one jumping out. With a bit of rain, Pandorama would appeal on the basis that he's simply less exposed. Starting to think that the Nicholls outsiders - What A Friend/Neptune Collonges - will run big races
 
Bob's Worth looks really strong at 3/1. His Cheltenham run in January was franked in no uncertain terms by Rock on Ruby, and a reproduction of that would see him win. Looks a strong stayer as well. I haven't backed many favourites at Cheltenham, but this one looks rock solid.
 
Soldatino has a big each way chance in the County. He out the back in the Totesport where the race was run to suit the pace horses and of course last year's Festival winners are doing the business big time this year.
 
I agree with that. I don't see Alaivan beating him only receiving 4 pounds, and would doubt that one coming up the hill.

In terms of other horses who could be better than their current marks, 2 stand out - Get me out of here and Alarazi.
 
I've backed 6 horses across the Triumph and the County. I need my head examining. Poor punting strategy this week has undone some decent selections. I'm out of practice!
 
In a shocking piece of aftertiming I did rather well on the last two proper races yesterday. which puts me in a nolose position for the meeting unless I go completely bonkers. I have a number of bets on Weird Al stretching back over the months and even the fag end of an ew double with Captain CeeBee. So relaxed with no pressure I can have a decent punt today and as its Red Nose day I'm going to have a little fun whilst trying to empty the bookies satchels.

Apart from Bobsworth I have no great feeling for any of the favourites and whilst doing the research found myself getting hooked on various stories, Accordingly I applied an additional factor to my calculations as to the story for anything I thought might have a chance. So with the aim of raising a decent amount and giving 20% to Comic Relief I'm doing a Yankee or even a Super Yankee.

The best story is the one-eyed Ski Sunday which has a decent chance.
On the basis of I would wouldn't I, I have added Weird Al, unbeaten except when found to have a breathing problem when fancied for the Hennessy progressive new trumps the fading stars. Reasonable story.

In the Triumph course winner from unfancied stable with unknown jockey has heroic victory. Local Hero.
Desperately trying to find a story fore Shoreacres but would welcome other suggestions.
 
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The Triumph looks a nightmare, as it always is.

Good luck everybody, it's been a great week.

COME ON DENMAN!!!!!!!!!
 
Today's bets are Local Hero in the Triumph (backed him what feels like years ago), Secret Dancer in the County and Kempes in the Gold Cup. Hoping for a great day but win or lose I'll enjoy!
 
Euronymous said:
The Triumph looks a nightmare, as it always is.

Good luck everybody, it's been a great week.

COME ON DENMAN!!!!!!!!!
Click to expand...

Seconded - a great week's racing.

Best of luck to all and hopefully the older horses in the Gold Cup all come back in one piece.
 
Still unsure about the gold cup but i've done the following in the other races.

1:30 Unaccompanied (nap)
2:05 Ciceron (Mullins and Wadham horses look good but can't beleive the price on this one).
2:40 Sybarite
4:40 First Point (given easy time by Geraghty and not knocked about once hampered last time out).
 
Unaccompanied might have appeared unlucky at first glance but, the overhead from the blimp showed that best horse clearly won on the day. Switch had minimal impact.
 
I watching Zarkandar carefully ( after timing as I backed him ) and he cut through that field in the style of his half sister . Excellent ride by Jacob and the sky could be the limit for this horse. Much the best in the race though a bizarre run by the favourite who ran on from miles back.

Agree on bob's worth, also like ski sunday and dirar, shoegazing and shoreacres later.
 
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